Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small." If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.
But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well.
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
No that matters too. I didn't say "the only reason" did I?
I'm still waiting for you to tell me what you would "fix" about Martinez's line. Is his BA too low? Is his OBP too high?
Well, you've gone from "real difference is pretty small" to "he avoids outs so well' to "no that matters too".
Do you remember your original point now that your stance has changed so much?
Hmmm, so should I have listed every difference between the two?
Why are you avoiding the question?
What would you change about Martinez's line? Is his BA too low? OBP too high? Spill the beans.
When you're going to say there's very little difference in run value probability even if it's Martinez at the plate instead of Mendoza, don't be surprised when you're asked to explain your statement.
Do you think that's unfair?
The way I phrased it was wrong.
The run value is an average.
So for any two same runner/out states, your run values are better with Martinez instead of Mendoza.
But, in our discussion, the runner/out state changes. It goes from one runner on to two runners on. That difference is bigger than the difference when you move down to an inferior hitter.