ARod's Value on the Open Market Topic

bad_luck
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Yep. The Yankees certainly have a choice. They are choosing to use him as their starting third baseman. The salary is a sunk cost.

Actually, they'd save money by cutting him because he's almost certainly going to get to at least one of the milestone bonuses.
10/1/2014 5:19 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 5:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 4:33:00 PM (view original):
And, FWIW, the Yankees don't want it and they could damn sure use a hitter or 4.   They just don't have a choice.   In this scenario, every other team does.
They could cut him and be done with it. The money is spent. If they legit didn't want the distraction, they don't need it. Bring back Headley, I like him.

Honestly, if I were running the Yankees, the crap he's put me through recently, I wouldn't want to deal with it next year. I'd probably cut him. That said, he's much less of a headache to pretty much any other team.
See, I think you're just looking at it as Monopoly money.   6m dollars is a lot of money.  Teams just don't hand it out.  Like all businesses, they try to get good labor as cheap as possible.    They don't pay a file clerk 80k because the won an arbitration and saved 2.2m.    They pay the file clerk 40k because someone will file **** for $800 a week.   And, if they can find someone who can do just as good a job for $700, they'll hire them and shitcan Mr.800.   60m is a lot more than 6m.   It's not throwaway money.
10/1/2014 5:35 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by bad_luck on 10/1/2014 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/1/2014 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
Somebody who was one of the GOATs, suddenly unable to keep up:

Willie Mays, age 40: .271/.425/.482
Willie Mays, age 41: .250/.400/.402
Willie Mays, age 42: .211/.303/.344
.271/.425/.482 is all-star level for a third baseman in 2014. .250/.400/.402 would still be well above average.
Shockingly, you're missing the point.

When dropoff of performance happens for players approaching the end of their careers, it can be quite significant.

Mays' OPS dropped from .907 to .802 to .647.

ARod's age 39/40 season could see the same kind of dropoff that Mays saw from age 41 to age 42., especially when you consider his year off and his bad hip.

Obviously, the drop of can be significant. Or not, as you can see with your example of the 40 year old Mays.
Do ALL players experience their drop off at exactly the same age?

Mays' drop off occurred in his age 42 season when his OPS dropped by .155.

Is there any compelling reason to believe that, after only playing 44 games and having ~180 PA's in the previous 2 1/2 calendar years, with a bad hip, supposedly off the PEDs that fueled his career throughout his 30's, and in the season in which he will turn 40, that ARod will NOT have a significant drop off in 2015?
10/1/2014 5:39 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 2:46:00 PM (view original):
A-Rod has been in steady decline for 5 years.   FIVE YEARS!!!

What on earth would lead anyone to believe he's suddenly going to be well above average(which would be the only reason to accept the circus)?
Because he'd be better than what you'd have.  If you're a team without an average 3B, A-Rod will probably be better.  Continuing his steady decline would give him a .735 OPS or so? And that has value at 3B. It's worth more than $6M.

Willie Mays (tec's example) improved at age 40.  Rickey would remind you that Rickey got better at age 40. Stan Musial had a beastly year at age 41. Harold Baines got better at 40. I'm not expecting A-Rod to get better, but if he does, he's a steal.  If he has a .735 OPS, he might make your team better.  If he falls off a cliff, ok, but even then he's probably not significantly worse than your alternative if you're SF without Sandoval, Milwaukee without Aramis, or Miami.

Willie Mays' "improvement" at age 40 was marginal.  Most of the improvement was due to the fact that his walk rate improved significantly over the previous season.  His OPS increased by only .010.  His AVG and SLG both declined.  His home runs at age 39 became doubles at age 40.

I'd look at the raw numbers and say that there was a noticeable decline in his abilities at age 40 over age 39.

10/1/2014 5:46 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 5:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 5:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 4:33:00 PM (view original):
And, FWIW, the Yankees don't want it and they could damn sure use a hitter or 4.   They just don't have a choice.   In this scenario, every other team does.
They could cut him and be done with it. The money is spent. If they legit didn't want the distraction, they don't need it. Bring back Headley, I like him.

Honestly, if I were running the Yankees, the crap he's put me through recently, I wouldn't want to deal with it next year. I'd probably cut him. That said, he's much less of a headache to pretty much any other team.
See, I think you're just looking at it as Monopoly money.   6m dollars is a lot of money.  Teams just don't hand it out.  Like all businesses, they try to get good labor as cheap as possible.    They don't pay a file clerk 80k because the won an arbitration and saved 2.2m.    They pay the file clerk 40k because someone will file **** for $800 a week.   And, if they can find someone who can do just as good a job for $700, they'll hire them and shitcan Mr.800.   60m is a lot more than 6m.   It's not throwaway money.
Thanks for economics lesson, mr treasury bond.

League average (or better) hitters are somewhat rare. Getting one for the relatively small sum of $6m is a deal many teams would take.
10/1/2014 5:52 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 5:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/1/2014 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/1/2014 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
Somebody who was one of the GOATs, suddenly unable to keep up:

Willie Mays, age 40: .271/.425/.482
Willie Mays, age 41: .250/.400/.402
Willie Mays, age 42: .211/.303/.344
.271/.425/.482 is all-star level for a third baseman in 2014. .250/.400/.402 would still be well above average.
Shockingly, you're missing the point.

When dropoff of performance happens for players approaching the end of their careers, it can be quite significant.

Mays' OPS dropped from .907 to .802 to .647.

ARod's age 39/40 season could see the same kind of dropoff that Mays saw from age 41 to age 42., especially when you consider his year off and his bad hip.

Obviously, the drop of can be significant. Or not, as you can see with your example of the 40 year old Mays.
Do ALL players experience their drop off at exactly the same age?

Mays' drop off occurred in his age 42 season when his OPS dropped by .155.

Is there any compelling reason to believe that, after only playing 44 games and having ~180 PA's in the previous 2 1/2 calendar years, with a bad hip, supposedly off the PEDs that fueled his career throughout his 30's, and in the season in which he will turn 40, that ARod will NOT have a significant drop off in 2015?
Well, to start, Arod, like Mays, is one of the best hitters ever. The "normal" rules don't necessarily apply. Also, as you point out, his declining performance over the last few years was at least partly due to a bad hip. Hips are so, so, so, important in baseball.

The fact that his decline was still 10-15% better than league average with the bad hip and the fact that he's had time to rest and rehab the hip are reasons for me to believe that he can still play at, at least, a league average level, which is valuable.

Valuable enough that, were he to magically become a free agent, I think another team would sign him for several million dollars.
10/1/2014 6:14 PM (edited)
dahsdebater
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At this point the discussion is entirely meaningless, and that's when I typically disappear.  It's just the same points being repeated over and over and ignored by the people who disagree in favor of their own arguments, which are in turn largely ignored by the other people.

I think it comes down to this, though.  Everyone who's a Yankees fan thinks A-Rod isn't worth signing.  Everyone else thinks he is.  29 GMs in MLB are not affiliated with the Yankees, so maybe some of them will be more inclined to see things the way the non-Yankees fans do.  But the Yankees fans probably have more insight; you guys have presumably watched him more, read more of the news about him.  I'm not saying that whoever signs him isn't likely to regret it for one reason or another.  But again, that isn't the point.  When it comes down to the question of whether some GM somewhere in baseball would still like to take a shot at the guy, I still think the answer is yes.  But most likely we'll never know.
10/1/2014 6:20 PM
winner77
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I would say a 1 year deal for 4-5 million, and a bunch of incentive bonuses for more $, and that can also trigger another year with same incentives.  At 39, you have to invest in the idea that he is going to be healthy enough to play more than 100 games.
10/1/2014 6:24 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/1/2014 6:20:00 PM (view original):
At this point the discussion is entirely meaningless, and that's when I typically disappear.  It's just the same points being repeated over and over and ignored by the people who disagree in favor of their own arguments, which are in turn largely ignored by the other people.

I think it comes down to this, though.  Everyone who's a Yankees fan thinks A-Rod isn't worth signing.  Everyone else thinks he is.  29 GMs in MLB are not affiliated with the Yankees, so maybe some of them will be more inclined to see things the way the non-Yankees fans do.  But the Yankees fans probably have more insight; you guys have presumably watched him more, read more of the news about him.  I'm not saying that whoever signs him isn't likely to regret it for one reason or another.  But again, that isn't the point.  When it comes down to the question of whether some GM somewhere in baseball would still like to take a shot at the guy, I still think the answer is yes.  But most likely we'll never know.

Didn't I say this with a lot less words?

We won't ever know.   Again, I think a team that missed out on what they hoped to do might take a chance if they felt he was the missing link.   I think he'd be signed in ST or after the season started.   But I don't think any team would start the off-season thinking "Damn.  I'd give ARod 6m, with incentives, to play for us."   Just too much baggage for too much risk. 

10/1/2014 6:43 PM
MikeT23
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I'll add this.   I think most Yankee fans hope ARod sucks out loud in ST.   Hope he gets booed mercilessly.   And hopes he says "**** it.  I don't need this.  I'm going to see if the Yanks will buy out my contract as a discount.  And, if they do, I'm going fishing."    But, if he doesn't, we'll say "******* ARod" when he makes an out with runners on.    But, when he hits the game winning homer, we'll yell "YEAH!!!  ******* AROD!!!!!  YOU DA MAN!!!!!" because that's what fans do. 
10/1/2014 6:53 PM
bad_luck
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You're paying him either way (there's no way he takes a buyout, and no way the union signs off on it either) so you should probably hope he does well.
10/1/2014 7:09 PM
burnsy483
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 5:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 5:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 4:33:00 PM (view original):
And, FWIW, the Yankees don't want it and they could damn sure use a hitter or 4.   They just don't have a choice.   In this scenario, every other team does.
They could cut him and be done with it. The money is spent. If they legit didn't want the distraction, they don't need it. Bring back Headley, I like him.

Honestly, if I were running the Yankees, the crap he's put me through recently, I wouldn't want to deal with it next year. I'd probably cut him. That said, he's much less of a headache to pretty much any other team.
See, I think you're just looking at it as Monopoly money.   6m dollars is a lot of money.  Teams just don't hand it out.  Like all businesses, they try to get good labor as cheap as possible.    They don't pay a file clerk 80k because the won an arbitration and saved 2.2m.    They pay the file clerk 40k because someone will file **** for $800 a week.   And, if they can find someone who can do just as good a job for $700, they'll hire them and shitcan Mr.800.   60m is a lot more than 6m.   It's not throwaway money.
Signing A-Rod is the equivalent of hiring a file clerk for $500 a week, who you know might do a better job than the guy you were going to hire for $800 a week, will probably do the job of someone you were also considering for $700 a week, or might take a crap on your desk over the weekend.  Some people might take that risk.
10/2/2014 9:13 AM
burnsy483
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 6:53:00 PM (view original):
I'll add this.   I think most Yankee fans hope ARod sucks out loud in ST.   Hope he gets booed mercilessly.   And hopes he says "**** it.  I don't need this.  I'm going to see if the Yanks will buy out my contract as a discount.  And, if they do, I'm going fishing."    But, if he doesn't, we'll say "******* ARod" when he makes an out with runners on.    But, when he hits the game winning homer, we'll yell "YEAH!!!  ******* AROD!!!!!  YOU DA MAN!!!!!" because that's what fans do. 
Sucks to root for a team where you're rooting against your players.
10/2/2014 9:14 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 10:58:00 AM (view original):
I think what we've got here is Yankee fans see ARod as poison.  Odds are we're a little closer to the situation and have watched more of ARod during his decline.   He hasn't really be ARod since 2010.    It's been nothing but decline, injury and controversy since the end of that season.    And we don't think it's realistic to believe he magically got better by sitting out a year.    He might have one good year left.   I just don't know why anyone would willingly pay 6m, with incentives, to find out. 
Yeah, this is what dahs said hours after I said it.   And, of course, I used far fewer words.
10/2/2014 9:20 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by burnsy483 on 10/2/2014 9:14:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 6:53:00 PM (view original):
I'll add this.   I think most Yankee fans hope ARod sucks out loud in ST.   Hope he gets booed mercilessly.   And hopes he says "**** it.  I don't need this.  I'm going to see if the Yanks will buy out my contract as a discount.  And, if they do, I'm going fishing."    But, if he doesn't, we'll say "******* ARod" when he makes an out with runners on.    But, when he hits the game winning homer, we'll yell "YEAH!!!  ******* AROD!!!!!  YOU DA MAN!!!!!" because that's what fans do. 
Sucks to root for a team where you're rooting against your players.
Not really.   It's a 162 game season and one player isn't going to win/lose all of them.   Don't tell me you've never thought "****, I hope this ****** strikes out with the bases loaded again.  Then, maybe, management will realize he sucks and send him down!!!"
10/2/2014 9:22 AM
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