Posted by dahsdebater on 6/24/2016 5:18:00 PM (view original):
Tec is mostly just being an argumentative douche.

JTP is actually as stupid as he seems. If I were he, I would probably shut up. Every time he posts he illustrates that he doesn't even understand the concept of the discussion.

But you dahs? I can continue to be insulting to you. Every time one of these come up you deviate from the discussion trying to draw attention to yourself.

You're basically an idiot trying to look smart.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 5:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/24/2016 5:45:00 PM (view original):
a ground out can sometimes help the team by advancing a runner or even scoring a runner. A ground out can also sometimes be a double play. A strike out can only be a strike out (or a strike them out, throw them out double play) so it can never benefit the team.

If you ground out with no one on base, was it better, worse, or the same as a strikeout?

if you ground out with no one on base, it is no worse or better than striking out with no one on base. However, if there is a runner or runners on base, a strike out is of no benefit to the team. A ground out can be of benefit to the team.

Posted by sjpoker on 6/24/2016 7:00:00 PM (view original):
Lets ask this of BL -

BL's theory - all outs are essentially the same. This can be a strikeout, a Fly out, or a Ground out. When discussing FO or GOs we are not talking about Balls in Play. We are talking specifically about "balls in play that resulted in outs."

If you use the example before -

Player A hits .300/.400/.500 over a season (600 PAs) with 185 strikeouts.
Player B hits .300/.400/.500 over a season (600 PAs) with 65 strikeouts.

Player B put 120 more balls in play that resulted in an out. We can assume that some of those are sacrifices. Some of those moved runners along without resulting in a run. I also acknowledge that some of those balls in play were GIDPs.

BL said we can ignore Sacrifice Flys over the long run because GIDP will even them out statistically. (I really don't know where that came from). \

So first, lets look at a hypothetical.

What if a player had 10 sacrifice flys? So the end result is 10 outs and 10 runs batted in.

That player also had 5 GIDP. All 5 GIDP occurred with a single runner on base. All ended the inning. So the end result is 10 outs.

Are the cumulative effects of the sacrifice flys equal to the cumulative effects of the GIDP? Is one better than another? Lets start there.

And BL I'll continue down this line of analysis without being insulting to you. As long as you play ball.

Sure.

Let's start with some basics. You get the idea that each event in a game has a run value, right? Single is worth 0.X runs (even if no RBI or RS), a double is worth 0.Y runs, outs are worth -0.Z, etc.

Make sense?

Posted by wylie715 on 6/24/2016 7:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 5:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 6/24/2016 5:45:00 PM (view original):
a ground out can sometimes help the team by advancing a runner or even scoring a runner. A ground out can also sometimes be a double play. A strike out can only be a strike out (or a strike them out, throw them out double play) so it can never benefit the team.

If you ground out with no one on base, was it better, worse, or the same as a strikeout?

if you ground out with no one on base, it is no worse or better than striking out with no one on base. However, if there is a runner or runners on base, a strike out is of no benefit to the team. A ground out can be of benefit to the team.

Correct.

Any out, even an out that moves a base runner is bad, agree?

By bad, I mean the team is worse off than it was prior to the PA, relative to the team's attempt to score as many runs as possible. The team is better off, for example, with a guy on second and no out than it is with a guy on third and one out.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 7:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by sjpoker on 6/24/2016 7:00:00 PM (view original):
Lets ask this of BL -

BL's theory - all outs are essentially the same. This can be a strikeout, a Fly out, or a Ground out. When discussing FO or GOs we are not talking about Balls in Play. We are talking specifically about "balls in play that resulted in outs."

If you use the example before -

Player A hits .300/.400/.500 over a season (600 PAs) with 185 strikeouts.
Player B hits .300/.400/.500 over a season (600 PAs) with 65 strikeouts.

Player B put 120 more balls in play that resulted in an out. We can assume that some of those are sacrifices. Some of those moved runners along without resulting in a run. I also acknowledge that some of those balls in play were GIDPs.

BL said we can ignore Sacrifice Flys over the long run because GIDP will even them out statistically. (I really don't know where that came from). \

So first, lets look at a hypothetical.

What if a player had 10 sacrifice flys? So the end result is 10 outs and 10 runs batted in.

That player also had 5 GIDP. All 5 GIDP occurred with a single runner on base. All ended the inning. So the end result is 10 outs.

Are the cumulative effects of the sacrifice flys equal to the cumulative effects of the GIDP? Is one better than another? Lets start there.

And BL I'll continue down this line of analysis without being insulting to you. As long as you play ball.

Sure.

Let's start with some basics. You get the idea that each event in a game has a run value, right? Single is worth 0.X runs (even if no RBI or RS), a double is worth 0.Y runs, outs are worth -0.Z, etc.

Make sense?

Sure. Go on.

Great.

So a common out (out with bases empty, pop up, strikeout) has a negative value but for the purposes of this, let's set it at zero.

Laying them out in an easy to see way:

productive out = 0 + X
common out = 0
double play = 0 - Y

What number do you think is bigger, X or Y?

Posted by tecwrg on 6/24/2016 7:28:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 2:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 6/22/2016 2:36:00 PM (view original):
Which is the more disastrous inning?

A: single, fly out, GIDP

or

B: strikeout, strikeout, strikeout

Inning A was worse for the offense even though zero runs scored in both innings.

If you ordered the 6 events from good to bad, they'd go:

1. Single
t2. K's & fly out
3. GIDP

How can anything BL says today possibly top this?

And the correct answer is: agreeing with dahs when he said:

Says the guy that doesn't understand the difference between an out and a ball in play.

I know that balls in play can become:

• hits
• ROE
• productive outs
• non-productive outs
• double plays

I know that strikeouts can become:

• non-productive outs

Did I miss anything?

Posted by tecwrg on 6/24/2016 9:17:00 PM (view original):
I know that balls in play can become:

• hits
• ROE
• productive outs
• non-productive outs
• double plays

I know that strikeouts can become:

• non-productive outs

Did I miss anything?

So you understand that, when we're comparing certain types of outs to other types of outs, they can't become anything, right?

They're outs.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 7:47:00 PM (view original):
Great.

So a common out (out with bases empty, pop up, strikeout) has a negative value but for the purposes of this, let's set it at zero.

Laying them out in an easy to see way:

productive out = 0 + X
common out = 0
double play = 0 - Y

What number do you think is bigger, X or Y?

X.

Posted by sjpoker on 6/24/2016 9:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 7:47:00 PM (view original):
Great.

So a common out (out with bases empty, pop up, strikeout) has a negative value but for the purposes of this, let's set it at zero.

Laying them out in an easy to see way:

productive out = 0 + X
common out = 0
double play = 0 - Y

What number do you think is bigger, X or Y?

X.

For real?


Cause it's not. Y is bigger. 5-10 times bigger, depending on the run scoring environment.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 9:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by sjpoker on 6/24/2016 9:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/24/2016 7:47:00 PM (view original):
Great.

So a common out (out with bases empty, pop up, strikeout) has a negative value but for the purposes of this, let's set it at zero.

Laying them out in an easy to see way:

productive out = 0 + X
common out = 0
double play = 0 - Y

What number do you think is bigger, X or Y?

X.

For real?


Cause it's not. Y is bigger. 5-10 times bigger, depending on the run scoring environment.

Explain. Why is Y bigger?

Because a double play is not only 2 outs, it also erases the positive value created by the prior batter.

The run value of a productive out is around -0.20. The run value of a common out is around -0.30. The run value of a double play is around -1.40.

Mmmm. Yeah not sure about that methodology. If there's a strikeout, or the hitter walks, or even if there's a fielders choice or flyout, the previous runner did not score. The productive out definitively helped score a run.

And attributing the negative value of the GIDP only to the batter is a fallacy as well. Because that is implying that the runner did not make a mistake.