Posted by MikeT23 on 3/27/2013 2:28:00 PM (view original):
Key word is "eventually".    Say she and I went to 10 games a year.   For a couple of seasons, she couldn't decide on a new favorite player.  She skips 5-6 games a year because she's just not as interested.  Multiple that by several thousand(and that's probably a VERY conservative number and you'd know it if you've ever been to a Yankees game). 

I think fan favorites play a big role in actual attendance numbers.  Again, it's easier to determine in game like basketball because there are fewer players but it's a real factor for casual fans. 

So you're saying that there are so many casual Yankee fans that one player leaving is enough to cause a huge number of fans to stay home?

Obviously.   I believe fans want to see something "special".    What determines "special" is in the eye of the beholder.    In the middle of June, game 73 of 162, a 3-1 win over Minnesota might be something to Fan A.   But, to Fan B, it's a meaningless game in the middle of June.  Yet, if their favorite player made a nice, over the shoulder catch in the 4th inning of a 0-0 game, they're likely to tell someone about that play, slap a high-five to the guy sitting next to them, maybe just smile at the memory of it on the way home.

I assume you're more than a casual baseball fan.  So am I.  But, on the grand scale, there are a lot more casual fans than us.  Believe it or not, you'll find people inside the stadium who don't care who's playing or which team wins.   They're just there to see and be seen.   Mostly at Wrigley but it happens elsewhere too.

Posted by burnsy483 on 3/27/2013 2:41:00 PM (view original):
Actually, I'm interested to see what happens in Atlanta this season.  Made the playoffs last year (sort of), but also lost Chipper, and everyone knew Chipper was retiring.  Attendance in Atlanta should go down a few hundred thousand if you guys are right.

If only it were that simple.   The Braves did as much in the off-season as anyone.   The Braves have a "buzz" around them.    LA, ANA and a few others do too.

You run that same team out there with some schlub instead of Chipper, and yeah, I'd argue attendance goes down.

Well that's the point - if Jeter is replaced by someone who is just as good (for 2/3 the salary) and someone else (my original point), thus making the team better, there might be a "buzz" about them too, since they're a better team.  Better teams draw more fans.  

Yeah, I don't think you're getting it.  The "buzz" would more likely be "That SOB replaced Jeter.  He better be good."   I don't think there's a SS in baseball right now that would get Yankee fans to say "Yeah, **** Jeter.   We need that guy."

Checked last season's A/S teams.

No Yankee fan would be excited for Andrus, Cabrera, Furcal, Castro or Desmond.   Throw Reyes and Rollins in there if you'd like. 

Chipper's being replaced with a scrub at 3B.  What's the difference? 

If Jose Reyes replaced Derek Jeter, and the Yankees won more games and continued to make the playoffs, you think less people would go to games.  Yes?

Chipper being replaced by a scrub isn't the only thing ATL did this off-season, right?

Don't know.   Some New Yorkers like Reyes.   He's not as popular as Jeter but I think he has a following in NY.   Yes?

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/27/2013 3:09:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, I don't think you're getting it.  The "buzz" would more likely be "That SOB replaced Jeter.  He better be good."   I don't think there's a SS in baseball right now that would get Yankee fans to say "Yeah, **** Jeter.   We need that guy."

Andrus is an upgrade at short and is both young and available.

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/27/2013 2:44:00 PM (view original):
Obviously.   I believe fans want to see something "special".    What determines "special" is in the eye of the beholder.    In the middle of June, game 73 of 162, a 3-1 win over Minnesota might be something to Fan A.   But, to Fan B, it's a meaningless game in the middle of June.  Yet, if their favorite player made a nice, over the shoulder catch in the 4th inning of a 0-0 game, they're likely to tell someone about that play, slap a high-five to the guy sitting next to them, maybe just smile at the memory of it on the way home.

I assume you're more than a casual baseball fan.  So am I.  But, on the grand scale, there are a lot more casual fans than us.  Believe it or not, you'll find people inside the stadium who don't care who's playing or which team wins.   They're just there to see and be seen.   Mostly at Wrigley but it happens elsewhere too.

I think on the grand scale, fans, even casual ones, only care about winning. Performance is what drives attendance, both team and individual.

Jeter becomes a hell of a lot less special if he hits .212 and continues to wear cement boots while playing short.

And in my scenario, the Yankees would be using the $ they overpayed on Jeter towards other pieces to improve their team, just like the Braves did.  Braves made a lot of changes, but I'd argue in Atlanta, Chipper is more popular than any Upton.  And as much as Atlanta did, Vegas thinks they'll win 86, 8 less wins than last year.  

Just to clarify, what SS exactly were the Yankees going to get who was as good as or better than Jeter for 2/3 the price?

Your scenarios have to be at least a little bit realistic.

Posted by burnsy483 on 3/27/2013 3:32:00 PM (view original):
And in my scenario, the Yankees would be using the $ they overpayed on Jeter towards other pieces to improve their team, just like the Braves did.  Braves made a lot of changes, but I'd argue in Atlanta, Chipper is more popular than any Upton.  And as much as Atlanta did, Vegas thinks they'll win 86, 8 less wins than last year.  

I guess SS who can hit a little are a lot more available and a lot more cheaper than I thought.

Jeter is making 15m this season(for the sake of argument, let's assume his production drops 5%).    Who do they get that's cheaper, what do they give up to get him and what pieces do they acquire with the savings?