Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic

burnsy483
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FWIW, Brett should have won MVP over both these guys.
8/25/2013 10:59 PM
lad_buck
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dumb is assuming slugging percentage, is a second number which does not add to batting average. batting average is supreme so your argument adding total bases to batting average as somehow being better is self defeating. total bases is far better achieved when any batted ball does not involve a fielder in play as once a fielder is in play the risk of the batted ball becoming an out increases. homeruns became the way with ruths era to eliminate fielders chances and still score with no chance of an out. henderson started many games with homeruns yet did not bat in position where his homeruns produced as many simultaneous rbis as did mattingly. homeruns in the middle order have more weight than over the season. homeruns state more than slugging percentage or total bases. wisdom simplifies this numerical review. batting average and homeruns wastes no time weighing mattingly as more productive. all other numbers rely on these two numbers.
8/25/2013 11:06 PM
trsnoke
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Posted by MikeT23 on 8/25/2013 10:34:00 AM (view original):
Let's see...Mattingly topped Henderson in G, PA, AB, H, HR, RBI, BA, SLG and OPS.     Henderson topped Mattingly in R, SB, BB, OBP.

Yep, they only cared about HR and RBI.   Obviously.
Come on, I wasn't comparing him just to Henderson.  There were other guys right there in those other categories or higher than Mattingly, except in HR and RBI, and some of those differences vs. Henderson, like OPS, are miniscule.  Actually, there were other guys in the league even higher in HR than Mattingly, I was just focusing on the top offensive players and vote getters.  Why should the voting slant that much toward Mattingly?  If it wasn't HR and RBI, what do you think it was?

He had a big lead in Total Bases but TB doesn't include net SB or walks, so isn't really "total" bases, it's just the numerator in SLG (which was led by Brett).  Intangibles? 
8/25/2013 11:25 PM
lad_buck
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total bases should not have one weight. in other words total bases by homeruns produces a larger number of runs batted in than the percentage of total bases that any scorekeeper rules a single. ichiro cannot achieve rbi totals of known hall of fame sluggers even as a triples hitter. the homerun power translates best as a defining number. but it's offensive threat is magnified by untouchable total bases. triples are often scored as doubles with a put-out. two bases that produced an out yet total bases by homeruns have more weight and more value since there is no chance of an out. the exception being the inside the park variety where it did not matter how many fielders were involved in the play as it did not produce an out on a play with a batted ball.
8/25/2013 11:58 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by bad_luck on 8/25/2013 10:42:00 PM (view original):
1 point of OBP is worth about 2 points of SLG.

According to . . . ?
8/26/2013 7:09 AM
trsnoke
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http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/

This says 1.7.  It helps if you are familiar with linear weights.
8/26/2013 7:57 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by trsnoke on 8/26/2013 7:57:00 AM (view original):
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/

This says 1.7.  It helps if you are familiar with linear weights.
That doesn't say "1 point of OBP is worth about 2 (or even 1.7) points of SLG.".
8/26/2013 8:16 AM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/26/2013 8:16:00 AM (view original):
Posted by trsnoke on 8/26/2013 7:57:00 AM (view original):
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/

This says 1.7.  It helps if you are familiar with linear weights.
That doesn't say "1 point of OBP is worth about 2 (or even 1.7) points of SLG.".
If you understand baseball, it does.
8/26/2013 9:46 AM
tecwrg
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No, it doesn't, Perfesser Einstein.

It says, for the sake of calculating a modified OPS, that SLG can stand by itself, but OBP cannot.  OBP needs to be multiplied by 1.7 to achieve the desired result.

If you don't know what the hell you're talking about, you should stop positing.

8/26/2013 9:55 AM
trsnoke
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It's a regression on changes in OBP and changes in SLG against changes in run expectancy for an average team.  As I understand it, the results say that a one point change in OBP provides the same change in expected runs as a 1.7 point change in SLG.  Given that, the author says that OPS undervalues impact of OBP and a better production estimator is 1.7*OBP + SLG. 
8/26/2013 9:57 AM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/26/2013 9:55:00 AM (view original):
No, it doesn't, Perfesser Einstein.

It says, for the sake of calculating a modified OPS, that SLG can stand by itself, but OBP cannot.  OBP needs to be multiplied by 1.7 to achieve the desired result.

If you don't know what the hell you're talking about, you should stop positing.

Phil Birnbaum (http://www.philbirnbaum.com/) has the value between 1.7 and 2.3. http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2013/05/the-obpslg-regression-puzzle.html?m=1
8/26/2013 10:06 AM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/26/2013 9:55:00 AM (view original):
No, it doesn't, Perfesser Einstein.

It says, for the sake of calculating a modified OPS, that SLG can stand by itself, but OBP cannot.  OBP needs to be multiplied by 1.7 to achieve the desired result.

If you don't know what the hell you're talking about, you should stop positing.

Because OBP is worth almost twice as much. Genius.
8/26/2013 10:08 AM
MikeT23
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Is it?   Isn't the object to move around the stations?    Would you rather have one walk or one double?
8/26/2013 10:54 AM
tecwrg
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OBP also doesn't account for the difference between a walk and a single.

Walks only advance runners if they are forced.  A single can score a guy from second or third, and can advance a runner from first to third.

Since BL has never actually watched a baseball game, I can see how he wouldn't know or understand that.
8/26/2013 11:08 AM
MikeT23
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That was sort of the point when I mentioned "Little League" a few pages back.   A walk isn't really as good as a hit.   It's better than an out though.
8/26/2013 11:14 AM
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