# Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic

Posted by bad_luck on 8/26/2013 2:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2013 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/26/2013 2:31:00 PM (view original):
And it's what I mean when I say "generally." Obviously baseball is a situational game. But that guy isn't on 3rd base if he doesn't touch 1st first.

I do think you're putting too much emphasis on walks. The guy with the .400 OBP doesn't have a .200 BA.
Of the 4 players listed for 85 MVP, they have 40+ more walks than Mattingly.   Do you think their teams might have been better served with a few of them being hits?
You're assuming that they would have turned those walks into hits instead of outs.

It's significantly better walk instead of making an out. It's only slightly better to get a hit instead of a walk.

Rickey's OBP was 50 points higher than Mattingly's. That 50 points of OBP is worth about 100 points of SLG.
"That 50 points of OBP is worth about 100 points of SLG."

I dare you to say that out loud, and see how stupid that sounds.  I'll double-dare you to say that in person to somebody who actually knows baseball.  Time how long they laugh in your face and report back here with the results.
8/26/2013 2:52 PM
BL believes if you repeat something enough times that it will magically become true.
8/26/2013 3:00 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/26/2013 2:39:00 PM (view original):
We're dealing in rates and probabilities. That's what BA and OBP are. How do you think run values are derived?

It's like you're being stupid on purpose. Are you biz?
probabilities have no relation as to batting average which is a record of past success ratios. probabilities also likewise as relating to on base percentage which is a number that needs batting average to exist. probabilities relates to prognostication which has nothing to do with rates achieved mathematically and simply. future events are not determined scientifically or mathematically. your measure of rates is your confusion. other measures justify the hall of fame. other numbers have no real persuasive value in the real world of baseball. ichiro is a vote not a number nor speculative. no numerical argument decides it but there are more sluggers than base stealers. probabilities is where your arguments consistently fail to prevail.
8/26/2013 3:05 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2013 2:48:00 PM (view original):
I'm suggesting the numbers from the games don't tell the entire story.

THIS:
I know none of us think badluck has ever watched a game but you really have to.   It's nice to look at a boxscore and see that Player A had two hits and a walk in 5 AB.   That's a pretty good game.   Except he may have struck out twice with the bases loaded in a 1 run loss.   He's not going to feel like he had a good game.

And this applies to looking at stats 28 years later.  Mattingly got 23 of 28 votes and Rickey got 0.  And even I agree that, looking at the numbers, a case could be made.    But why the landslide?    Is there something else that the numbers, especially the precious WAR!!!!!, don't show?
First, let's stop pretending that I don't watch games. Because I love baseball so much, I wanted to understand it beyond the lazy, surface level analysis. I also manage/play in a men's league. Not softball, baseball. I manage the team. We have guys on our team that play as high as low minors. There's a guy on another team in our division that was on the Tigers' 1984 world series roster.

Second, that batter will probably feel ****** about his day. But I'm sure there will be other days when a slow ground sneaks threw and plates two runners or a bloop single falls in. That **** tends to even out over 700 plate appearances.

Third, MVP voters are notorious idiots. We've seen it as recently as the 2006 NL vote. Relying on things they may have seen (when exactly, btw, did a sportswriter in Los Angeles or St. Louis gain special insight into Mattingly's performance?) is lazy and stupid, considering the information we have available.

8/26/2013 3:05 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2013 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/26/2013 2:31:00 PM (view original):
And it's what I mean when I say "generally." Obviously baseball is a situational game. But that guy isn't on 3rd base if he doesn't touch 1st first.

I do think you're putting too much emphasis on walks. The guy with the .400 OBP doesn't have a .200 BA.
Of the 4 players listed for 85 MVP, they have 40+ more walks than Mattingly.   Do you think their teams might have been better served with a few of them being hits?
Definitely, a hit is better than a walk.  But a walk is great, and much better than an out.
8/26/2013 3:05 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 8/26/2013 2:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/26/2013 2:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2013 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/26/2013 2:31:00 PM (view original):
And it's what I mean when I say "generally." Obviously baseball is a situational game. But that guy isn't on 3rd base if he doesn't touch 1st first.

I do think you're putting too much emphasis on walks. The guy with the .400 OBP doesn't have a .200 BA.
Of the 4 players listed for 85 MVP, they have 40+ more walks than Mattingly.   Do you think their teams might have been better served with a few of them being hits?
You're assuming that they would have turned those walks into hits instead of outs.

It's significantly better walk instead of making an out. It's only slightly better to get a hit instead of a walk.

Rickey's OBP was 50 points higher than Mattingly's. That 50 points of OBP is worth about 100 points of SLG.
"That 50 points of OBP is worth about 100 points of SLG."

I dare you to say that out loud, and see how stupid that sounds.  I'll double-dare you to say that in person to somebody who actually knows baseball.  Time how long they laugh in your face and report back here with the results.
There's nothing controversial about that statement. Because of how SLG is calculated, it isn't on a 1:1 value scale with OBP. That's obvious right?

8/26/2013 3:08 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 8/26/2013 2:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/26/2013 2:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2013 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/26/2013 2:31:00 PM (view original):
And it's what I mean when I say "generally." Obviously baseball is a situational game. But that guy isn't on 3rd base if he doesn't touch 1st first.

I do think you're putting too much emphasis on walks. The guy with the .400 OBP doesn't have a .200 BA.
Of the 4 players listed for 85 MVP, they have 40+ more walks than Mattingly.   Do you think their teams might have been better served with a few of them being hits?
You're assuming that they would have turned those walks into hits instead of outs.

It's significantly better walk instead of making an out. It's only slightly better to get a hit instead of a walk.

Rickey's OBP was 50 points higher than Mattingly's. That 50 points of OBP is worth about 100 points of SLG.
"That 50 points of OBP is worth about 100 points of SLG."

I dare you to say that out loud, and see how stupid that sounds.  I'll double-dare you to say that in person to somebody who actually knows baseball.  Time how long they laugh in your face and report back here with the results.
People who get paid to do this for a living have determined that Player A with a OBP of 50 points higher than Player B will contribute to about the same amount of wins as Player B if his slugging percentage is 100 points higher than Player A's, more or less.
8/26/2013 3:10 PM
First, do you yell "Walk's as good as a hit" all the time?  Have you figured out the WAR of your players?

Second, are we now working with "**** tends to even out" as a logical formula?

Third, all of them?   Not one of the 28 felt Henderson was the MVP.   Why?
8/26/2013 3:15 PM
8/26/2013 3:20 PM
is he really going to pull a rabbitt out of that hat?
8/26/2013 3:25 PM
Let's not forget "(My calculator says) YOU'LL GET 'EM NEXT TIME!!!"
8/26/2013 3:26 PM
8/26/2013 3:27 PM
why show up and play nine if numbers foretell?
8/26/2013 3:28 PM
Nope. We only play once a week, so everyone wants to get their swings in. Also, most of the pitchers get the ball over the plate but they don't have major league defenses behind them, so a high percentage of balls in play result in a guy on base.

Yes, over a full season, a major leaguers BA with no one on will be similar to his BA with RISP. **** tends to even out.

Yes, is that surprising?

I'd take 85 Henderson over 85 Mattingly every day of the week.
8/26/2013 3:28 PM
From Rickey's book, he wrote this.  Possible reason on why he got no votes...he blew his load in the first half?

"If someone other than Don had won the MVP in '85, maybe I'd have been more upset. I still think I had a better year. I carried the team in the first half, and Don carried the team in the second half.; the second half was more on the voters' minds. I actually finished third in the balloting. George Brett somehow snuck in and finished second, and I still don't know why. I thought that was a bunch of crap. Including the disgrace in '81 when Rollie Fingers got the MVP, I lost out on two trophies that I had a pretty good chance to win."
8/26/2013 3:30 PM
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Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic