Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic

Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
Which "advanced metric" says that Henderson was not a below average CF?
Total Zone
8/27/2013 12:56 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
Which "advanced metric" says that Henderson was not a below average CF?
Total Zone says he was well above average in center field in 1985.  Was replaced by UZR somewhat recently.  
8/27/2013 12:58 PM
Double posting will never make your argument twice as strong here.
8/27/2013 1:03 PM
Students of the game, & it's numbers, still strive to understand the depth that certain numbers mean in accord with value. We have volumes of data from bookmakers that span 3 decades. We can only assume that numbers written on flash paper have no bearing, as is always the case with temporary numbers. The ones that are set in stone, so to speak, were also temporary numbers, once before, that said little. Those numbers became full-fledged and hardened concrete as each season ended. Not beforehand, as the reviews seem to mistakenly be referred to. Someone like Ichiro Suzuki is still a very long way from receiving even one Hall of Fame vote. Using defensive statistics that only span approximately one out of every two games covering 140 years of Major League Baseball, only puts you is guessing mode about what happened to the other half of all games played. You look stupid making Most Valuable Player & Hall of Fame choices using any impartial or incomplete number, or temporary numbers to make your baseball conclusions. Very stupid & not well thought out as to the consequences of what you are posting here. Can you please try another position to make your arguments less arbitrary ? 
8/27/2013 1:19 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 11:48:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/27/2013 10:26:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 10:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/27/2013 10:02:00 AM (view original):
At the end of the day, I just think the 23-5-0 vote says more than the stats we look at 28 years later.  If it had been 15-7-6, you'd at least be able to argue that some of the voters saw then what your numbers are telling you now.   Then you could say "Yeah, they're dumbasses."   I just don't think 28 of them are all dumbasses who got it wrong.
These are writers, right? And Rickeys kind of an ******* and Mattinglys cool and media friendly? I'm wondering if a writer decided to vote for a Yankee, he's picking Mattingly, based on the HRs and RBI, good defense, but also because he's not an arrogant douche.
Would it be fair to say more than a few people think I'm an arrogant douche?   Do you think, if that was the consensus of WifS, that I'd be able to fill HBD worlds on the day of rollover?  

And that's not to say some, if not many, of the owners in said worlds don't think I'm an arrogant douche.  They just know I run good worlds.   Much like a writer who admittedly thought Rickey was an arrogant douche would still throw him a MVP votes because, get this, he was the best player.   Not even one did.
That's fair.  But there are certainly instances when writers/reporters, etc kinda screw over players and coaches because they weren't media-friendly or for other reasons that go beyond what happens on the field.  Parcells should have made the HOF his first time around and didn't, and many think it's because he ****** off many of the voters.  Braun probably should have won MVP last year, or at least got more votes, but he didn't have a shot because of his suspected roid use.

I don't know why Rickey got no votes.  I'd love to question some of the voters to find out what they were thinking, exactly.  I'm also confused why Brett didn't get more votes.
Because you weren't there.    As I said, they likely saw something over the course of 162 games that a stat-look back won't reveal. 
8/27/2013 1:26 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 12:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
Which "advanced metric" says that Henderson was not a below average CF?
Total Zone
You didn't answer my question about that stat . . . what is the key factor that goes into the Total Zone calculation?

if it's range factor, then the numbers are skewed because, as I pointed out, the Yankees had an extreme fly-ball pitching staff in '85 which would have given Henderson many more opportunities in CF than would CF's from other teams, thus distorting/inflating his actual value compared to "league average".
8/27/2013 1:34 PM (edited)
Total Zone (Rtz and Rof) ain't great. I wouldn't rely on it for any sort of exact measurement prior to 1989 - actually, I would ignore it for anything prior to 89. But it isn't calculated based on range factor.
8/27/2013 1:43 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Look, you wanted to use total zone, not me. Go complain to your mom.

Who knows why Henderson moved off CF. Maybe he hated it. Maybe he really wasn't very good overall. Maybe it wore him out and would have reduced his offensive effectiveness. Regardless, in 1985, he was at least league average, likely better than league average.

Going back to offense, pick a better-than-BA stat -- wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, oWAR...whatever. All of them will put Rickey equal to or better than Mattingly in 1985.

Even ignoring the 80 stolen bases, how can you pick the 1B over the CF in this situation?
You didn't answer this question.
8/27/2013 1:44 PM
It appears to me that sportswriters have a value in baseball society. They are given seats and viewpoints to eyewitness each & every game. These sportswriters are not given pamphlets urging them to create formulaic mathematical conditions to vainly prove that RHenderson is Major League Baseball's first 6-tool, or 7-tool player. They might be greeted by a stadium usher, who may only acknowledge reading yesterdays' story about RHenderson's on-field antics. All sportswriters engage simple mathematics in their deadlined accounts of those games. DMattingly clearly proved his worth to them in 1985. Simply, his batting avg. in the American League was considered with the same simple math contained in the batting avg. of his MVP cohort in the National League, WMcGee. None of your numbers are considerable today, to de-value the worth of a simple batting avg., as it is not neccessary. What is neccessary with hitters in both leagues, to impress & influence sportswriters, is really nothing new. Your same numbers could have also been produced with calculators back in the 1980's. But sportswriters, like most of society, have considerations that make time more valuable than wasted numbers that have no bearing on decisions that relate to history. They are paid for their time, & tasks. Formulaic blunderings do not fix broken steering wheels. Sportswriters steer their own way, with wheels that work. 
8/27/2013 1:54 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
If you ACTUALLY watched Rickey in the field, you would know every time a ball was hit down the left field line, you held your breath and wondered if it would get by him. Then you watched the shortstop run out about thirty feet to take the cutoff.

I watched Rickey play daily...right in front of me. He butchered ****.
8/27/2013 1:54 PM
Regarding Rickey playing center field, MikeT23 is correct....he did not like playing it.  He preferred Left Field because (or so he said) it took wear and tear off his legs. 
8/27/2013 1:54 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Look, you wanted to use total zone, not me. Go complain to your mom.

Who knows why Henderson moved off CF. Maybe he hated it. Maybe he really wasn't very good overall. Maybe it wore him out and would have reduced his offensive effectiveness. Regardless, in 1985, he was at least league average, likely better than league average.

Going back to offense, pick a better-than-BA stat -- wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, oWAR...whatever. All of them will put Rickey equal to or better than Mattingly in 1985.

Even ignoring the 80 stolen bases, how can you pick the 1B over the CF in this situation?
You didn't answer this question.
Mattingly led the major leagues in extra base hits, total bases and RBI's.  He had 48 more total bases (nearly 15% more) than the #2 guy in the American League (Brett).  The Yankees had the second bast record in the American League in 1985, and he carried them in the second half of the season.

I watched the games.  I remember the season.  Henderson may have set the table, but Mattingly carried that team on his back.

That's what defines an MVP.  Not statistics on a web page.
8/27/2013 1:59 PM
Posted by The Taint on 8/27/2013 1:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
If you ACTUALLY watched Rickey in the field, you would know every time a ball was hit down the left field line, you held your breath and wondered if it would get by him. Then you watched the shortstop run out about thirty feet to take the cutoff.

I watched Rickey play daily...right in front of me. He butchered ****.
Fine, but it looks like he was average-ish in CF in 1985.

Is there any way he's less valuable overall than Mattingly in 85?
8/27/2013 1:59 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Look, you wanted to use total zone, not me. Go complain to your mom.

Who knows why Henderson moved off CF. Maybe he hated it. Maybe he really wasn't very good overall. Maybe it wore him out and would have reduced his offensive effectiveness. Regardless, in 1985, he was at least league average, likely better than league average.

Going back to offense, pick a better-than-BA stat -- wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, oWAR...whatever. All of them will put Rickey equal to or better than Mattingly in 1985.

Even ignoring the 80 stolen bases, how can you pick the 1B over the CF in this situation?
You didn't answer this question.
Mattingly led the major leagues in extra base hits, total bases and RBI's.  He had 48 more total bases (nearly 15% more) than the #2 guy in the American League (Brett).  The Yankees had the second bast record in the American League in 1985, and he carried them in the second half of the season.

I watched the games.  I remember the season.  Henderson may have set the table, but Mattingly carried that team on his back.

That's what defines an MVP.  Not statistics on a web page.
So, you're saying **** what the stats say, I don't care if Henderson was better, Mattingly carried the team to a second place finish?
8/27/2013 2:00 PM
Really, total bases is just SLG without dividing by at bats. And we know* Henderson's OBP lead was more valuable than Mattingly's SLG lead.

*On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). Fangraphs

8/27/2013 2:04 PM
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Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic

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