Posted by Jtpsops on 4/9/2014 11:29:00 PM (view original):
Some people also don't seem to realize pitching goes beyond the rotation. The Yankees bullpen is horrid - fans better get used to seeing what happened tonight. A solid start followed by a loss from the pen.

As far as Tanaka, he's good, but so far in his two starts, he's looked hittable. I'm not interested in his Japanese reputation - he has to show it here. So far, two starts, 3 runs over 7 IP in each is good - it's not "ace level".

And Tillman has handled Boston and Detroit so far. The guy is consistently good and always gives his team a very good chance to win.

Hahaha!!!

Put your bike helmet back on kiddo.

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/9/2014 10:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 4/9/2014 4:00:00 PM (view original):
CC hasn't been an ace for a long time.  Workhorse is a better description. 

If you have Yankee money to pay them, workhorses are a valuable commodity.  Unless they're awful.

I didn't say he had no value.   I think a guy that takes the ball every 5 days and battles for 7 innings, 110 pitches is pretty valuable even if he is getting slapped around a bit.   It gives your bullpen a break.   But that's not the definition of an ace.   Personally, in 1 v 1 games, I think the Yanks are usually at a disadvantage.

Tanaka - 14 IP, 13H, 1 BB, 18K. I'm impressed so far.

Posted by Jtpsops on 4/9/2014 11:29:00 PM (view original):
Some people also don't seem to realize pitching goes beyond the rotation. The Yankees bullpen is horrid - fans better get used to seeing what happened tonight. A solid start followed by a loss from the pen.

As far as Tanaka, he's good, but so far in his two starts, he's looked hittable. I'm not interested in his Japanese reputation - he has to show it here. So far, two starts, 3 runs over 7 IP in each is good - it's not "ace level".

And Tillman has handled Boston and Detroit so far. The guy is consistently good and always gives his team a very good chance to win.

After seeing Tanaka, I'll take Tanaka over Tillman 10 out of 10 times.  I'd guess Tanaka has a low 3s ERA and Tillman finishes high 3s.

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/9/2014 10:49:00 PM (view original):
High HR/FB isn't a warning sign, it's an indicator of bad luck, just as low BABIP is an indicator of good luck.  In his case I would say it is very likely that he overperformed in terms of ERA last season, but not by a large margin.  OTOH, I don't think he pitched up to his potential last year.  It took him years to get adjusted to being a Major League pitcher, and once he got that he was almost immediately cast as an ace.  I think that took some adjustment as well.  To be totally honest, he's not the strongest player psychologically.  I think that's pretty obvious by this point.  However, it's worth pointing out that in the second half of last season Tillman was appreciably better than he was in the first half.  His record dropped off, but his ERA, WHIP, K rate, and walk rate all got better as the season went on.  If you dig into his PitchFX database, you'll find that from late June on he threw substantially more strikes and drew substantially more swing-and-misses than he did through the first 3 months of the season.  He's also throwing 2-3 MPH harder than he was this time last year, although not as hard as he was later in the year, particularly in the warmer part of summer.

All things considered, having watched the guy pitched, I have a high degree of confidence that he's a better pitcher than last year's stats would suggest.  Possibly a lot better.  I wouldn't trade Lester or Buchholz for him, or Ryu, or anybody anywhere near the top of Washington's rotation.  But he is incredibly deceptive, since there just aren't many over-the-top pitchers anymore, and nobody knows what to do with a true 12-6 curve coming from a high arm slot.  I think this year you'll see an ERA in the vicinity of 3.3-3.4 from him, which is a pretty solid number in the AL BEast.

If his velocity is up, great. That's a good sign. Especially if he's getting more swinging strikes. If he's able to get his k rate up, maybe he proves me wrong. I'm rooting for him because I have him in two fantasy leagues.

Posted by Jtpsops on 4/9/2014 11:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/9/2014 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not an Oriole/Tillman hater. I would love for the Orioles to finish ahead of the Yankees this year. I just don't see them making the playoffs.

You lost any shred of credibility you may have had when you said you'd take Kazmir over Tillman.

Moron.

Kazmir is a pretty special pitcher when healthy. If rather have him.

Since when did O's fan become so damn stupid?  Obviously, I can't stand the Yanks, but to say you're not impressed with Tank's start to the year?!?!?!  Seriously, the guy looks really good.

jtpops has been stupid for a very long time.   Most of his life, I'd imagine.

When did I say I wasn't impressed with Tanaka? I'm pretty sure I said he looks good. If you can read - and I know that's a stretch - I said he hasn't looked ace-like so far. He's not as untouchable as his reputation might suggest. I hate to burst your Skankee-loving bubble, but he's not going to be anywhere near a Kershaw, Hernandez or Fernandez. I'll wager he won't even be as good as Darvish.

Posted by MikeT23 on 4/10/2014 11:20:00 AM (view original):
jtpops has been stupid for a very long time.   Most of his life, I'd imagine.

Keep pretending you're not reading my posts. DON'T RUIN THE CHARADE, MIKEY!!!

Posted by bad_luck on 4/10/2014 10:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 4/9/2014 11:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/9/2014 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not an Oriole/Tillman hater. I would love for the Orioles to finish ahead of the Yankees this year. I just don't see them making the playoffs.

You lost any shred of credibility you may have had when you said you'd take Kazmir over Tillman.

Moron.

Kazmir is a pretty special pitcher when healthy. If rather have him.

He was healthy last season. 29 starts, 150 IP, 10-9, 1.32 WHIP. Ya, that's pretty special. I'd much rather have that over Tillman's 33 starts, 200 IP, 16-7 and 1.22 WHIP.

I won't even bother mentioning Tillman's hitter friendly ballpark or tougher competition.

Posted by Jtpsops on 4/10/2014 12:35:00 PM (view original):
When did I say I wasn't impressed with Tanaka? I'm pretty sure I said he looks good. If you can read - and I know that's a stretch - I said he hasn't looked ace-like so far. He's not as untouchable as his reputation might suggest. I hate to burst your Skankee-loving bubble, but he's not going to be anywhere near a Kershaw, Hernandez or Fernandez. I'll wager he won't even be as good as Darvish.

"Even" be as good as Darvish?  You do realize that Darvish was one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball last year, and at least arguably in the top 4-5, right?

Posted by Jtpsops on 4/10/2014 12:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/10/2014 10:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 4/9/2014 11:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/9/2014 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not an Oriole/Tillman hater. I would love for the Orioles to finish ahead of the Yankees this year. I just don't see them making the playoffs.

You lost any shred of credibility you may have had when you said you'd take Kazmir over Tillman.

Moron.

Kazmir is a pretty special pitcher when healthy. If rather have him.

He was healthy last season. 29 starts, 150 IP, 10-9, 1.32 WHIP. Ya, that's pretty special. I'd much rather have that over Tillman's 33 starts, 200 IP, 16-7 and 1.22 WHIP.

I won't even bother mentioning Tillman's hitter friendly ballpark or tougher competition.

Tillman definitely had (has) the durability/innings advantage. The fact that Kazmir only pitched 158 innings is a big negative. But his K rate was over 9 and his walk rate was 2.68. He had a league average strand rate but allowed a BABIP of .324. It's likely that he was unlucky and, assuming he maintains his peripherals, lowers his ERA this year.

On the other hand, Tillman only k'd 7.8 per nine and walked 3 batters per nine. His BABIP allowed was below average at .269 and his strand rate was 10% higher than league average. It's likely that, baring a permanent increase in velocity (and K's), Tillman's ERA will go up this year.

The innings difference closes the gap somewhat but, even with 50 more IP, Kazmir had a higher 2013 WAR (fangraphs) than Tillman. 

Which is ridiculous, which is why everyone uses BBR WAR for pitchers in particular.  Tillman's bWAR for 2013 was 4.4.  Kazmir's was 1.1.

I don't think it's ridiculous. Who is this "everyone" that you know personally?