Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

AlCheez
Posts: 3375 (0)
Hall of Famer
12 59 54
Pro
In the 6 seasons he qualified for the ERA title while Toronto, he was outside the top 25 in the AL in run support once.   Regardless of the state of the Jays' offense, they pretty consistently put up runs for Halladay.

There's situational pitching, sure, but the notion that Halladay becomes a noticably worse pitcher when he gets a lot of runs I just don't buy.  He gets his share of strikeouts because he has great stuff, but he's not a guy who is ever nibbling for the K, unless the situation absolutely calls for it.  He always pounds the strike zone and is looking for the quick outs as opposed to the long at bat.  He just has such great command and so much movement that he stays out of the middle of the plate and rarely gives hitters a pitch they really like.
2/14/2012 3:02 PM
Jtpsops
Posts: 13983 (1)
Hall of Famer
623 1 2 2 138
Prospect
That surprises me. I didn't look at the numbers, but I saw a lot of his starts in TO and it seemed he was losing a fair share of games where he gave up 2-3 runs.
2/14/2012 3:31 PM
AlCheez
Posts: 3375 (0)
Hall of Famer
12 59 54
Pro

And maybe he was (he's had his share of those in Philly as well), but he was also then obviously pitching similarly well in games where he got a lot of runs, because it averaged out to quality run support.  Run support can be funky that way, and I think we tend to dwell on and remember the 2-1, 1-0 losses.

He didn't win as much as you would have thought towards the end in Toronto given what the RS numbers were.  I didn't really follow him much back then, but I seem to remember a year or two where there was talk of the bullpen blowing just about every game he didn't finish off.

2/14/2012 3:38 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/13/2012 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Halladay is a bit of a throwback in that he wants to finish his game.

Since position players play differently based on the situation, there's no reason that pitchers didn't do the same thing.   When given a 5 run lead, a pitcher should switch from "get everybody out no matter what" to "finish the game and save the bullpen."    That's gonna change some stats because they're going to hit more of the plate.  No way to know if Hunter did this but he did throw a lot of innings and completed about 40% of his starts.   Pitching for a good team should give you more of those opportunities.  

They may not do it that way now.   Pitchers know there are 7 guys out there to finish the game for them.  They can throw their 100 pitches, complete 6 and go have a beer(if they're in Boston).  
That's one of those things that sounds right, but there is really no evidence to back it up.

Spira talks about Hunter towards the bottom.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15750
2/15/2012 7:26 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
So I guess you didn't read this part:  "No way to know if Hunter did this but he did throw a lot of innings and completed about 40% of his starts."

Or maybe this from the article:  "None of this proves that there are no pitchers who "pitch to the score," or win or lose more than their ERAs suggest they would."
2/15/2012 7:46 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/15/2012 7:46:00 PM (view original):
So I guess you didn't read this part:  "No way to know if Hunter did this but he did throw a lot of innings and completed about 40% of his starts."

Or maybe this from the article:  "None of this proves that there are no pitchers who "pitch to the score," or win or lose more than their ERAs suggest they would."

Don't forget the part you left out.

"None of this proves that there are no pitchers who "pitch to the score," or win or lose more than their ERAs suggest they would. This is obviously not a systematic study of all pitchers, present or past. But I think the evidence presented does suggest that anytime a pitcher is tagged with a reputation that indicates that his (adjusted) ERA is not indicative of his pitcher contributions, we should take it with an extremely large grain of salt, and not believe it unless there is clear evidence that it is true."

In plain English, Hunter didn't pitch to the score, his ERA is an accurate reflection of his skill.

 

2/15/2012 8:44 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect

Very definitive statement right here:  "But I think the evidence presented does suggest"

Yep.  I see your point.

2/15/2012 9:06 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
I will say this and let you dispute it.   The game is played differently based on the situation.  And that does include the score.   Please dispute this.
2/15/2012 9:08 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
And you have zero evidence.  I'll take a suggestion from actual evidence any day over nothing. 
2/15/2012 9:08 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
OK, good.

Do batters hit behind runners?  Shorten their swings to make contact?  Bunt?  Try to hit deep flies to drive in a runner on third?
Do fielders play deep?  Shallow?  On the line?  Off the line?

So we should assume that pitchers pitch the same way all the time regardless of the situation?

It's borderline retarded to pretend they don't.    Did Catfish Hunter?  Maybe, maybe not.   As I said, he threw a lot of innings and completed a lot of games.   You don't do that by nibbling corners and running the count to 3-2 on everyone.
2/15/2012 10:15 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Prove your case.  There's game data for Hunter's starts.  Show that he was often handed a lead and then gave up just enough runs not to lose.  Show that when his team scored just a run or two he pitched better.  Show that his walk rate changed significantly, that he had control over his BABIP, and that his strikeout rate went down. But only when he had a big lead.  
2/15/2012 10:22 PM
trsnoke
Posts: 263 (0)
Hall of Famer
124 92
Prospect
No one is going to do that kind of work.  I like the way this article frames it.  It makes sense to me, anyway.  http://www.thefastertimes.com/baseballbythenumbers/2011/09/14/pitching-to-the-score-is-not-as-easy-as-it-sounds/
2/15/2012 11:21 PM
The Taint
Posts: 12578 (0)
Hall of Famer
993 3
Hall of Famer
In the Bronx Zoo, Sparky Lyle talks about how Catfish Hunter pitched to the score.  Anecdotal, but it's there from a guy who played with him.  He also talked about how Catfish loved to admire the long homers he'd give up.....almost always solo shots.
2/15/2012 11:52 PM
cwillis802
Posts: 1591 (0)
Hall of Famer
475
Prospect
How does Hunter stack up against his contemporaries that are also in the HOF? Just wondering what guys like Seaver, Palmer, Carlton and Jenkins have for ERA+.  Would you say Hunter was in the top 5-10 starting pitchers of his era?  I'm too lazy to look at all the numbers myself, but I'm enjoying the thread.
2/16/2012 12:11 AM
cwillis802
Posts: 1591 (0)
Hall of Famer
475
Prospect

I can't figure out why Raines wasn't a first ballot HOFer.  I think history will treat him kindly.  He might be the best base stealer of all time.  The guy rarely got thrown out. 

2/16/2012 12:12 AM
◂ Prev 1|2|3|4|5|6...103 Next ▸
Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2024 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.