Posted by jrd_x on 6/21/2012 2:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/21/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):But don't you want to know who is actually better?
And phythagorean win/loss record tries to figure out what your win-loss record should be, based on runs scored. But it doesn't tell you what your win-loss record is. Your goal is to have the best win-loss record, not to have the best expected win-loss record. The team with the best actual record is the one that moves on to the playoffs and competes for the championship; it's the team that's rewarded. Dickey has accomplished the goal, this far, of allowing the least amount of runs possible per inning than anyone else in the league. The goal isn't to have the lowest ERA possible without luck involved, it's to have the lowest ERA. He has been the most successful pitcher in baseball this year. If luck is involved, it's irrelevant.
If Pitcher A has 7 Ozzie Smith's playing defense behind him and Pitcher B has 7 Mo Vaughan's, does A's lower ERA really tell the whole story? Would you be confident saying Pitcher A is better than Pitcher B? Or would some context be necessary?
I'm not arguing who is the more talented pitcher, who is the more deserving of better results when it comes to allowing runs. The all-star game starting pitcher should go to the most successful starting pitcher this year, who is Dickey.
I'm in sales, so I'll use this anology:
I am hired by a company as a "widget" salesman. I go to networking events often, I work 10 hours a day, work weekends, am passionate about my job, and my bosses and colleagues like me. I am great at my job. I sell $50,000 worth of widgets.
My colleague was also hired by the same company the same day as me as a "widget" salesman. He is just as old as I, and has the same education. He is less passionate about his job. He works the minimum amount of hours possible, is not liked by many, is not as talented a salesman as me. But his neighbor knows a guy who wants a large order of widgets. He bumps into a guy on the street who wants another large order. This guy also knows 5 other people who want large orders. He sells $100,000 worth of widgets.
Who had the better year? Would I be justified in asking my boss for the same commission as my collegaue? Would I be justified in telling my boss my colleague shouldnt be "salesman of the month?"
I'm not arguing Dickey is as good a pitcher as Strasburg. I'm arguing he has been more successful in accomplishing his goals this year.