Posted by MikeT23 on 10/2/2012 1:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/2/2012 1:34:00 PM (view original):I think it was Baltimore about 3 days ago.
No out is productive. Some outs are slightly less ****** than other outs.
Bunt moved runners to 2nd/3rd. Next batter tied the game with a single. Baltimore won in extra innings.
According to a Win Expectancy chart from Tango Tiger, a sacrifice increases win probability in certain circumstances. For example, with runners on 1st and second, no outs, and the home team down by one in the bottom of the ninth, a sacrifice that moved both runners over would increase that team's probability from .517 to .540.
It's easy to pick out a game in which a sacrifice worked, since they do happen. The sacrifice is still almost always a poor decision. But even statgeekery supports it in the right situations.
Enjoy digging out more examples: