Wins and Losses Topic

Like when?
12/4/2012 7:57 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMk5sMHj58I
12/4/2012 8:03 PM
I enjoy bad_luck's posts.  It is entertaining to see how far his foot can be inserted into his mouth
12/4/2012 8:04 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 7:57:00 PM (view original):
Like when?
Your reading comprehension skills are poor. Either that or you have a terrible memory.
12/4/2012 8:05 PM
You know what? Let's not look at ERA either. It doesn't always tell you who is better, as we saw in the Vargas/Darvish example. Use ERA+.

Wait, no. ERA+ still replies heavily on what your fielders do. Pitchers only have control over walks, ks and homers. Use FIP.

No, that's not good either. It's easier to hit homers in some places than other. Use xFIP.

Wait, no...
12/4/2012 8:09 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/4/2012 10:44:00 AM (view original):
To those who picked "worthless" - your team has a big game, and your options are 2 pitchers.  You have A) 14-14, 3.20 ERA or B) 20-8, 3.35 ERA.  Who are you picking?
If these are my two choices, i am assuming these stats were put up on the same team.   So, based upon the stats, I choose B.   I can tell he has something that enables him to win more, whether it is more stamina, more strikeouts, or ability to handle pressure situations better.
12/4/2012 8:10 PM
Posted by bfkfraser on 12/4/2012 8:04:00 PM (view original):
I enjoy bad_luck's posts.  It is entertaining to see how far his foot can be inserted into his mouth

I enjoy them because I can quote posts from the previous page when he goes "Like what?"

One thing he definitely can't do is remember anything.   He dumb.

12/4/2012 8:12 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/4/2012 8:09:00 PM (view original):
You know what? Let's not look at ERA either. It doesn't always tell you who is better, as we saw in the Vargas/Darvish example. Use ERA+.

Wait, no. ERA+ still replies heavily on what your fielders do. Pitchers only have control over walks, ks and homers. Use FIP.

No, that's not good either. It's easier to hit homers in some places than other. Use xFIP.

Wait, no...
All of those stats tell you something about how the pitcher performed. W/L tells you nothing.
12/4/2012 8:17 PM
It tells you nothing. Because you said so!
12/4/2012 8:19 PM
Posted by kneeneighbor on 12/4/2012 7:48:00 PM (view original):
Pitcher A: 20-8 3.18 ERA 1.27 WHIP

Pitcher B: 18-12 3.43 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Same season same team.

Who do you want to start the must win game?
Is this even debatable?

Pitcher A allowed fewer earned runs, and fewer baserunners (barring hbp/errors ... fewer baserunners = less chance of unearned runs, although the whip difference is minute).

Plus, since I'm a psychic like bfkfraser, "I can tell he has something that enables him to win more, whether it is more stamina, more strikeouts, or ability to handle pressure situations better," since he had two more wins. Obvoiously those two wins had nothing to do with his teammates.

I imagine Pitcher A is some turd, and Pitcher B rulez. Who are they?
12/4/2012 8:21 PM
Well, it tells you nothing except the fat guy in the uniform, who knows more baseball than you'll ever know, felt he was effective enough to leave him out there long enough to get the win.   They don't just hand those things out, you know.


Tell me about accumulating WAR in losses again.  That was fun.
12/4/2012 8:21 PM
Wow. I'll admit I didn't read every word of this thread, but a thought occurs to me. Let's put it to a theme league test.

Only a whitelist of 50 random starting pitchers with between 180-220 IP can be used. 1/2 of the teams get to see only the W/L record of all the pitchers and select 5 SP. The other 1/2 get randomly assigned 5 SP from that same list.

If W/L is COMPLETELY useless, there should be no significant statistical difference between the teams that chose their pitchers and the teams that were randomly assigned.

Have all teams use the same offense and same bullpen in the same park to remove as many variables as possible.

My bet is on the teams that get to look at the W/L records.
12/4/2012 8:26 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/4/2012 8:21:00 PM (view original):
Well, it tells you nothing except the fat guy in the uniform, who knows more baseball than you'll ever know, felt he was effective enough to leave him out there long enough to get the win.   They don't just hand those things out, you know.


Tell me about accumulating WAR in losses again.  That was fun.
So is the pitcher that went 15-10 better than the one that went 14-10? Because, you know, the fat man left him out there at least 15 times.
12/4/2012 8:29 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 8:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/4/2012 8:21:00 PM (view original):
Well, it tells you nothing except the fat guy in the uniform, who knows more baseball than you'll ever know, felt he was effective enough to leave him out there long enough to get the win.   They don't just hand those things out, you know.


Tell me about accumulating WAR in losses again.  That was fun.
So is the pitcher that went 15-10 better than the one that went 14-10? Because, you know, the fat man left him out there at least 15 times.
No idea.  But I wouldn't just ignore that extra win because it's COMPLETELY USELESS!!!

But again, I'm a rational human being.
12/4/2012 8:33 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/4/2012 11:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 11:40:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/4/2012 11:34:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 11:29:00 AM (view original):
Sure, I could guess he had a great year. But it's just a guess, because pitcher W/L is completely worthless.

If I told you he had an ERA of 1.50 over 220 innings, you'd know he had a great year, regardless of his W/L.
Would you care to find any examples of 21-4 pitchers on losing teams who didn't have a great year?

Hell, let's make it easier.   Find a 16-10 pitcher on a sub .500 team that didn't have a great year.

The point, in case you're missing it, is that W-L record isn't the be all to end all but history tells us that a good W-L record pretty much indicates a solid year.   And I'm quite sure that there are many examples of pitchers with poor W-L records pitching really well.    Nonetheless, pitchers who accumulate wins generally pitch well thus making W/L a little more valuable in evaluating performance than "completely worthless".
Great. Pitcher A went 12-7. Pitcher B went 11-12. Pitcher C went 11-15. Who was the best pitcher?

COMPLETELY WORTHLESS.

But thanks, I had no idea people this dumb still existed. I needed this entertainment today.

This is where being a rational person is helpful.

I can look at those records and say "Hmmmm, I'd probably need more info.   One more win but with 4 and 7 less decisions seems to indicate that he didn't pitch in as many games or he didn't stick around long enough to get decisions." 

A non-rational person just screams "COMPLETELY WORTHLESS!!!!"

Any luck finding that 16-10 pitcher on a sub .500 team that didn't have a great year?

This.
12/4/2012 8:34 PM
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