Posted by MikeT23 on 11/21/2013 10:12:00 AM (view original):
Looks like there was an IBB of about .21 every game. So teams don't mind doing it. That certainly doesn't include the non-intentional intentional walk where the pitcher throws pitches that won't garner a swing by anyone with a decent eye.
Crapshoot or no, pitchers control the game. If we don't want to pitch to Mike Trout, Mike Trout sees nothing to hit. Can't do that with a Clayton Kershaw. You have to bat against him.
Although, back to your original question, I'm not sure Trout gets the most money on a 1 year deal. I think a pitcher would. Several of them. Turn it into a 5-6 year deal and I think you're right. Long term deals to everyone, but moreso pitchers, have proven to be risky. If I had to give 5/150 to someone, it's not a pitcher. Or a 33 y/o firstbaseman.
You're probably right. Take away the long term risk and a guy like Kershaw will get a huge one year deal. On the other hand, pitcher performance seems, at least anecdotally, to have more if a variance from year to year, so there is less certainty than with a hitter.
Also, the Red Sox showed that you can win a series without a stud starting pitcher. Lester is at least a level below Kershaw, Scherzer, and Wainwright.