2015 baseball HOF ballot. Topic

bad_luck
Posts: 21761 (0)
Hall of Famer
48 1 10
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/7/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
Really? You rather have a guy who hits 320/360/520 over a guy who hits 320/420/520?

Amazing.

I'd rather have that guy swinging than 227/295/410.   You wouldn't?

Amazing.

The choice is A or B.

The fact that you chose the guy with the 360 OBP shows that you either know nothing about baseball or are so committed to your nonsensical argument that you would rather look like an idiot than admit defeat.
2/7/2014 3:24 PM
tecwrg
Posts: 18996 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 154 32 129
Prospect
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
Can we agree that scenario 2 is more likely to produce multiple runs?

If so, I'd be willing to look at numbers to answer the actual question you asked.
I think scenario 1 is more likely to produce multiple runs.  You have 2 runners in scoring position.   But, if you believe Martinez is a better hitter than Davis, it's also more likely to produce 0 runs. 
Sorry, yes, I mis-typed. Walking is more likely to lead to multiple runs.

OK, I'll look at your question, but can you tell me what season(s) you were using? I just checked a half-dozen boxes and the people batting behind Edgar were Tino Martinez, John Olerud, and Jay Buhner. So what season(s) should I be looking at?

Griffey, ARod, and Martinez all played fulltime together from '96 through '99.  So any of those four years.

I also spot checked a handful of boxscores from each of those four seasons.  Mostly, it was ARod (2), Griffey (3), Martinez (4) and Buhner (5) in '96 and '97.

In '98 and '99, it was David Segui and a variety of other schlubs in the 5-hole after EM.

2/7/2014 3:27 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by bad_luck on 2/7/2014 3:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/7/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
Really? You rather have a guy who hits 320/360/520 over a guy who hits 320/420/520?

Amazing.

I'd rather have that guy swinging than 227/295/410.   You wouldn't?

Amazing.

The choice is A or B.

The fact that you chose the guy with the 360 OBP shows that you either know nothing about baseball or are so committed to your nonsensical argument that you would rather look like an idiot than admit defeat.
You don't get to determine my choices. 

Seriously, you need a run and there's one standing on 3rd base with 2 outs.

You'd rather have the .227 hitter swinging the bat than the .320 hitter?

Can we agree that's dumb?
2/7/2014 3:27 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
Hall of Famer
90 1 58 77
Prospect
OK, first a slight factual correction, but I will address your actual question also.

As #3 - 1682 PA
As #4 - 3944 PA
As #5 - 1083 PA

I cannot believe that no one bothered to actually check whether Edgar was batting 5th that often, but apparently no one did. He wasn't.

Even in 1998, he hit 5th in 42 games, compared to cleanup in 103. But OK. I went through about 20 box scores and finally found 1 with him batting 5th (here). In that game, 6th was Buhner. But Wilson did bat 6th in 14 games that season, so there certainly could have been one where Wilson followed Martinez.

In 1998, Edgar hit .322. So (focusing for a moment on the 1-run-is-all-we-care-about, and assuming no inf hits for Edgar), he scores a guy in the 2 outs, 1st and 3rd situation 32.2% of the time (I am intentionally excluding reach on error, but will bring them in if someone thinks it makes a big difference).

In 1998, Buhner got on base at a .344 clip, so he scores a guy in the 2 outs, 1st and 3rd situation (plus an Edgar walk) 34.4% of the time.

In 1998, Wilson got on base at a .308 clip, so he scores a guy in the 2 outs, 1st and 3rd situation (plus an Edgar walk) 30.8% of the time.

So yes, if there was a game where Wilson batted after Edgar (there weren't many), and if in that game there was a situation where Edgar come to the plate with 2 out and men on 1st and 3rd, and if in that situation in that game Seattle needed one and only 1 run and has no need for the possible benefit of addition runs, and if Edgar's batting average would not decline at all knowing he had to swing at what was offered, then yes - Scenario 2 (the one you prefer) would lead to a single run slightly under 3 times out of 200 [where Scenario 1 would not *edited for clarity*].

2/7/2014 3:38 PM (edited)
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
I posted the box I used.   Wilson was hitting 6th behind Martinez.    As I mentioned earlier, I thought is was A-Rod/Griffey/Martinez in 3/4/5 and it appears that it was more 2/3/4. 
2/7/2014 3:39 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
Hall of Famer
90 1 58 77
Prospect
Posted by tecwrg on 2/7/2014 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
Can we agree that scenario 2 is more likely to produce multiple runs?

If so, I'd be willing to look at numbers to answer the actual question you asked.
I think scenario 1 is more likely to produce multiple runs.  You have 2 runners in scoring position.   But, if you believe Martinez is a better hitter than Davis, it's also more likely to produce 0 runs. 
Sorry, yes, I mis-typed. Walking is more likely to lead to multiple runs.

OK, I'll look at your question, but can you tell me what season(s) you were using? I just checked a half-dozen boxes and the people batting behind Edgar were Tino Martinez, John Olerud, and Jay Buhner. So what season(s) should I be looking at?

Griffey, ARod, and Martinez all played fulltime together from '96 through '99.  So any of those four years.

I also spot checked a handful of boxscores from each of those four seasons.  Mostly, it was ARod (2), Griffey (3), Martinez (4) and Buhner (5) in '96 and '97.

In '98 and '99, it was David Segui and a variety of other schlubs in the 5-hole after EM.

You can call him a schlub, but Segui hit .305 in '98 and .293 in '99. That really doesn't help the argument that Edgar should have been not walking in front of him.
2/7/2014 3:40 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
Hall of Famer
90 1 58 77
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:39:00 PM (view original):
I posted the box I used.   Wilson was hitting 6th behind Martinez.    As I mentioned earlier, I thought is was A-Rod/Griffey/Martinez in 3/4/5 and it appears that it was more 2/3/4. 
Sorry, missed that at the bottom of the page.

The analysis holds though.
2/7/2014 3:41 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
I will add the OBP might not be the most "accurate" way to look at the situation but I understand using it for simplicities sake.    Pitchers tend to not walk players with the bases loaded.   Adjust for that(% of bases loaded walks) then adjust for the increase/decrease in BA with the bases loaded and you might get a better reflection of what would most likely happen(ball in play or K).
2/7/2014 3:43 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
Hall of Famer
90 1 58 77
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:43:00 PM (view original):
I will add the OBP might not be the most "accurate" way to look at the situation but I understand using it for simplicities sake.    Pitchers tend to not walk players with the bases loaded.   Adjust for that(% of bases loaded walks) then adjust for the increase/decrease in BA with the bases loaded and you might get a better reflection of what would most likely happen(ball in play or K).
True, but based on the readily available stats, I think the analysis is fair (especially since we're not reducing Edgar's rate stats even though he is forced to swing).

That said, you've essentially discounted Edgar's HOF credentials based on a situation that may never have actually occurred and - if it had occurred 200 times in his career - might have cost his team up to 3 runs.
2/7/2014 3:46 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect

No, I listed several reasons why I've dismissed him as HOF-worthy.  This was just the point burns and BL chose to argue.

2/7/2014 3:49 PM
bad_luck
Posts: 21761 (0)
Hall of Famer
48 1 10
Prospect
Because it was by far the stupidest. You're saying his BA and SLG were fine but his OBP was too high. Ridiculous.
2/7/2014 3:54 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
No, I'm saying passing the buck to Wilson, Davis, Buhner, Segui seems to be a less productive way to score runs.  

I'm not a "walk's as good as a hit" kind of guy after we get past Little League. 

I'll ask again.   Runner on 3rd, two outs.   Who do you want swinging the bat?   .320 guy or .227 guy?
2/7/2014 3:58 PM
cobra
Posts: 198 (0)
All Star
37 2 1 3 5
Prospect
Maybe EM should have hit first or second?
2/7/2014 4:09 PM
cobra
Posts: 198 (0)
All Star
37 2 1 3 5
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:58:00 PM (view original):
No, I'm saying passing the buck to Wilson, Davis, Buhner, Segui seems to be a less productive way to score runs.  

I'm not a "walk's as good as a hit" kind of guy after we get past Little League. 

I'll ask again.   Runner on 3rd, two outs.   Who do you want swinging the bat?   .320 guy or .227 guy?
Btw, same argument a lot of fans in Cincinnati are having about Joey Votto. Great hitter, walks too often with runners in scoring position
2/7/2014 4:10 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by cobra on 2/7/2014 4:09:00 PM (view original):
Maybe EM should have hit first or second?
I suggested earlier that he probably should have hit 3rd in front of Griffey/A-Rod.   But he didn't. 
2/7/2014 4:13 PM
◂ Prev 1...8|9|10|11|12...56 Next ▸
2015 baseball HOF ballot. Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2024 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.