Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 3:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 2:52:00 PM (view original):
Quick example:

See the 1st inning.  Guy on 2nd, 2 outs, Edgar walks.  The expected winning percentage goes up.  Should he have swung and see if he would get a hit?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA199604210.shtml

Would you prefer Russ Davis to be swinging?

I'd prefer a 25% chance of getting a hit with 2 guys on than a 30% chance of a hit with 1 guy on.  The 1st option generates more runs than the 2nd option.

So that's a "yes"?

You prefer Russ Davis being responsible for driving in run over Edgar Martinez.    Got it. 

Well, Davis would have 2 guys on base to drive in over 1.  2>1.  Maths is hard.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 3:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 2:52:00 PM (view original):
Quick example:

See the 1st inning.  Guy on 2nd, 2 outs, Edgar walks.  The expected winning percentage goes up.  Should he have swung and see if he would get a hit?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA199604210.shtml

Would you prefer Russ Davis to be swinging?

I'd prefer a 25% chance of getting a hit with 2 guys on than a 30% chance of a hit with 1 guy on.  The 1st option generates more runs than the 2nd option.

So that's a "yes"?

You prefer Russ Davis being responsible for driving in run over Edgar Martinez.    Got it. 

Well, Davis would have 2 guys on base to drive in over 1.  2>1.  Maths is hard.

Common sense obviously doesn't exist. 

Would you say that EM is a better HITTER than RD?

To summarize my part of this discussion (since the folks on the other side seem confused):

If I have a hitter of EM's caliber, with a lesser hitter on deck (as most everybody who batted behind him was), if the game is on the line and I need a base hit, I want him to be agressive at the plate.  If there's a ball in the strike zone, I want him swinging at it and trying to put the ball in play.  I don't want him working the count and drawing a base on balls, especially if he's passing on hittable pitches to do that.  Because by doing that, he's just passing the buck to the lesser guy behind him to get the job done.

Now if he puts the ball in play and makes an out . . . that's baseball.  But at least he's trying to do his job, which is to be a hitter in a situation in which a hit is called for.

If he walks because he was not given any hittable pitches . . . that's also baseball.  Let's hope the guy behind him gets it done.

I'm not sure why this is so baffling to some folks here.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/10/2014 3:46:00 PM (view original):

To summarize my part of this discussion (since the folks on the other side seem confused):

If I have a hitter of EM's caliber, with a lesser hitter on deck (as most everybody who batted behind him was), if the game is on the line and I need a base hit, I want him to be agressive at the plate.  If there's a ball in the strike zone, I want him swinging at it and trying to put the ball in play.  I don't want him working the count and drawing a base on balls, especially if he's passing on hittable pitches to do that.  Because by doing that, he's just passing the buck to the lesser guy behind him to get the job done.

Now if he puts the ball in play and makes an out . . . that's baseball.  But at least he's trying to do his job, which is to be a hitter in a situation in which a hit is called for.

If he walks because he was not given any hittable pitches . . . that's also baseball.  Let's hope the guy behind him gets it done.

I'm not sure why this is so baffling to some folks here.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:47:00 PM (view original):
Here you go.

EM, runner on 2nd:   308/486/475
RD, runners on 1st/2nd:  232/306/430

Do you still think EM walking was the better play?

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:47:00 PM (view original):
Here you go.

EM, runner on 2nd:   308/486/475
RD, runners on 1st/2nd:  232/306/430

Do you still think EM walking was the better play?

Davis averaged .288 RBI per atbat in that scenario.  Martinez averaged .266 RBI per atbat in that scenario.  You tell me.

And why does this have to be Russ Davis?  As said before, Jay Buhner was damn good at baseball and very often hit behind him.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 4:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 3:47:00 PM (view original):
Here you go.

EM, runner on 2nd:   308/486/475
RD, runners on 1st/2nd:  232/306/430

Do you still think EM walking was the better play?

Davis averaged .288 RBI per atbat in that scenario.  Martinez averaged .266 RBI per atbat in that scenario.  You tell me.

And why does this have to be Russ Davis?  As said before, Jay Buhner was damn good at baseball and very often hit behind him.

So RD being better in this specific situation is a check in the good column for EM's enshrinement?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):
1 run games, 4368 PA, 692 BB  .158%
Innings 7-9, 2551 PA, 394 BB   .154%

Walk rates:
1-3:  .161(he drew a lot of walks in the 1st and I have no problem with that)
4-6:  .141
7-9:  .154

Looks like he was taking a lot of pitches in the last three innings.

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):
1 run games, 4368 PA, 692 BB  .158%
Innings 7-9, 2551 PA, 394 BB   .154%

Walk rates:
1-3:  .161(he drew a lot of walks in the 1st and I have no problem with that)
4-6:  .141
7-9:  .154

Looks like he was taking a lot of pitches in the last three innings.

This post doesn't tell me too much.  I don't get what you're driving at here.  He was taking "a lot of pitches" in a lot of innings.

His walk rate was up in close games and late in games.  

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, if you look at some of his splits, EM wasn't the same hitter in the "clutch" situations.    He might have been doing the right thing by looking for a walk and passing it on to the Russ Davis' of the world. 

Another check mark in the "No HOF for you!!!" column.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 4:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/10/2014 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/10/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):
1 run games, 4368 PA, 692 BB  .158%
Innings 7-9, 2551 PA, 394 BB   .154%

Walk rates:
1-3:  .161(he drew a lot of walks in the 1st and I have no problem with that)
4-6:  .141
7-9:  .154

Looks like he was taking a lot of pitches in the last three innings.

This post doesn't tell me too much.  I don't get what you're driving at here.  He was taking "a lot of pitches" in a lot of innings.

His walk rate was up in close games and late in games.