2015 baseball HOF ballot. Topic

Posted by tecwrg on 2/11/2014 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

You talked about run values here:

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:06:00 PM (view original):

He's not the only one.  I know burnsy posted "The run probability increases from .273 runs to .324 runs."    I've never seen .324 runs scored in any inning.   Sometimes a better hitter will produce 1 runs while the lesser hitter produces 0 runs.


How do you think they got those?

Oh, NOW you want to talk about that?

Are the probabilities constant for all players?  If the expected runs for a given state (outs and men on base) is .324 runs, does it matter if Edgar Martinez or Mario Mendoza is batting?
I don't think it makes a difference. The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small.  Even great hitters make an out most of the time, so the out/runner state is more important than the actual hitter when it considering the run value.
2/11/2014 5:59 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Yes, if the pitcher makes a great pitch at 1-0, the odds of Martinez doing something good at the plate decreases.  That's what happens when pitchers make good pitches.

Tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
So you looked it up and EM was a lesser hitter after working that 1-0 count to 1-1?

And is it still your contention that every pitch he took was a "great" pitch?
Yea, the vast majority of pitches he took, I'm assuming were good pitches.  If they were pitches he thought he could hit hard, he would have swung at them.

I'm confused what your point is.

Also, tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
What evidence do you have that he would have swung at them?   Aren't you simply making the same assumptions that I am about pitches he took?

I think you're more confused as to what your point is.

The hitters behind EM were not effective.  It's a pretty simple fact that's been discussed ad nauseum in this thread.    If you want to compare every hitter that hit behind a HOFer with a similar walk rate, feel free to list them.   I'd enjoy that discussion but I'm not putting in the work. 
So the hitters behind him weren't always great.

What does that have to do with Martinez?
2/11/2014 6:00 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 2/11/2014 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

You talked about run values here:

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:06:00 PM (view original):

He's not the only one.  I know burnsy posted "The run probability increases from .273 runs to .324 runs."    I've never seen .324 runs scored in any inning.   Sometimes a better hitter will produce 1 runs while the lesser hitter produces 0 runs.


How do you think they got those?

Oh, NOW you want to talk about that?

Are the probabilities constant for all players?  If the expected runs for a given state (outs and men on base) is .324 runs, does it matter if Edgar Martinez or Mario Mendoza is batting?
I don't think it makes a difference. The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small.  Even great hitters make an out most of the time, so the out/runner state is more important than the actual hitter when it considering the run value.
So Edgar Martinez and Mario Mendoza for HOF?
2/11/2014 6:05 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:05:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 2/11/2014 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

You talked about run values here:

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:06:00 PM (view original):

He's not the only one.  I know burnsy posted "The run probability increases from .273 runs to .324 runs."    I've never seen .324 runs scored in any inning.   Sometimes a better hitter will produce 1 runs while the lesser hitter produces 0 runs.


How do you think they got those?

Oh, NOW you want to talk about that?

Are the probabilities constant for all players?  If the expected runs for a given state (outs and men on base) is .324 runs, does it matter if Edgar Martinez or Mario Mendoza is batting?
I don't think it makes a difference. The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small.  Even great hitters make an out most of the time, so the out/runner state is more important than the actual hitter when it considering the run value.
So Edgar Martinez and Mario Mendoza for HOF?
Why would you think that?
2/11/2014 6:06 PM
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
2/11/2014 6:10 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
2/11/2014 6:13 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
2/11/2014 6:16 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
No that matters too. I didn't say "the only reason" did I?

I'm still waiting for you to tell me what you would "fix" about Martinez's line. Is his BA too low? Is his OBP too high?
2/11/2014 6:18 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
No that matters too. I didn't say "the only reason" did I?

I'm still waiting for you to tell me what you would "fix" about Martinez's line. Is his BA too low? Is his OBP too high?
Well, you've gone from "real difference is pretty small" to "he avoids outs so well' to "no that matters too".  

Do you remember your original point now that your stance has changed so much?
2/11/2014 6:21 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
No that matters too. I didn't say "the only reason" did I?

I'm still waiting for you to tell me what you would "fix" about Martinez's line. Is his BA too low? Is his OBP too high?
Well, you've gone from "real difference is pretty small" to "he avoids outs so well' to "no that matters too".  

Do you remember your original point now that your stance has changed so much?
Hmmm, so should I have listed every difference between the two?

Why are you avoiding the question?

What would you change about Martinez's line? Is his BA too low? OBP too high? Spill the beans.
2/11/2014 6:24 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 2/11/2014 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

You talked about run values here:

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:06:00 PM (view original):

He's not the only one.  I know burnsy posted "The run probability increases from .273 runs to .324 runs."    I've never seen .324 runs scored in any inning.   Sometimes a better hitter will produce 1 runs while the lesser hitter produces 0 runs.


How do you think they got those?

Oh, NOW you want to talk about that?

Are the probabilities constant for all players?  If the expected runs for a given state (outs and men on base) is .324 runs, does it matter if Edgar Martinez or Mario Mendoza is batting?
I don't think it makes a difference. The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small.  Even great hitters make an out most of the time, so the out/runner state is more important than the actual hitter when it considering the run value.
THREAD CLOSED FER RETAHD REPAIRS!!!!!
2/11/2014 6:31 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
No that matters too. I didn't say "the only reason" did I?

I'm still waiting for you to tell me what you would "fix" about Martinez's line. Is his BA too low? Is his OBP too high?
Well, you've gone from "real difference is pretty small" to "he avoids outs so well' to "no that matters too".  

Do you remember your original point now that your stance has changed so much?
Hmmm, so should I have listed every difference between the two?

Why are you avoiding the question?

What would you change about Martinez's line? Is his BA too low? OBP too high? Spill the beans.
When you're going to say there's very little difference in run value probability even if it's Martinez at the plate instead of Mendoza, don't be surprised when you're asked to explain your statement.

Do you think that's unfair?
2/11/2014 6:35 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 6:10:00 PM (view original):
"The real difference between a good major league hitter and a bad major league hitter is still pretty small."    If it's not a big enough difference to make a ripple in the run value pool, why not?
OK, maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe having Martinez up makes it more likely that you will score more runs in the inning.

But a big part of that reason is because he avoids outs so well. 
So the fact that one gets a hit 31% of the time and the other gets a hit 20% is irrelevant?
No that matters too. I didn't say "the only reason" did I?

I'm still waiting for you to tell me what you would "fix" about Martinez's line. Is his BA too low? Is his OBP too high?
Well, you've gone from "real difference is pretty small" to "he avoids outs so well' to "no that matters too".  

Do you remember your original point now that your stance has changed so much?
Hmmm, so should I have listed every difference between the two?

Why are you avoiding the question?

What would you change about Martinez's line? Is his BA too low? OBP too high? Spill the beans.
When you're going to say there's very little difference in run value probability even if it's Martinez at the plate instead of Mendoza, don't be surprised when you're asked to explain your statement.

Do you think that's unfair?
The way I phrased it was wrong.

The run value is an average.

So for any two same runner/out states, your run values are better with Martinez instead of Mendoza.

But, in our discussion, the runner/out state changes. It goes from one runner on to two runners on. That difference is bigger than the difference when you move down to an inferior hitter.
2/11/2014 6:38 PM
Does that make sense?
2/11/2014 6:38 PM

tec can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe he's been mocking you because we know it involves averages.   But, in our discussion, we're talking about Edgar Martinez and the litany of scrubs that hit behind him during his career.

2/11/2014 6:41 PM
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2015 baseball HOF ballot. Topic

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