Derek Jeter's Last Stand Topic

bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 9/27/2014 6:38:00 PM (view original):
My opinion of your analysis is irrelevant.  Stop trying to deflect the discussion.

I'm just trying to understand the logic behind how you got to your conclusion.

When comparing Jeter / Biggio, you used OPS+, WAR, etc. to arrive at the conclusion that they were similar players.  Only separated by 3 points of OPS+.

When comparing Biggio / Bell, the OPS+ and WAR numbers are similar.  Again, only separated by 3 points of OPS+.  But apparently, Biggio/Bell is different from Jeter/Biggio.

You're unable to explain why.  Other than throwing away dWAR with a flippant "I don't trust defensive stats from the 70's and 80's" when there is ample evidence to support the fact that Bell was an excellent defensive 3B.

And before you start throwing the "retard" word around, try to get some self awareness.
Biggio and Jeter are very similar by most metrics, OPS+ is just one of them.

Biggio and Bell are similar by OPS+ until you account for the big difference in PAs, then they aren't nearly as similar.

I'm sure Bell was great defensively, just like I'm sure that Lofton was. What I'm not sure of is how that translates value wise. Defensive stats prior to 2002 are an approximation. I've said that before, almost certainly when we talked about Lofton. Bell gets 33% of his WAR from defense. Biggio gets most of his from offense. I'm comfortable putting Biggio in and leaving Bell out. As are you.

You're the one upset that I'm agreeing with you. Maybe you need the self awareness. Unless you disagree with my opinion that Biggio should be in and Bell should be out.
9/27/2014 7:11 PM
tecwrg
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OK.

So advanced stats are great to use when comparing players.  Except when they're not.

Thanks for clearing that up.
9/27/2014 7:34 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 9/27/2014 7:34:00 PM (view original):
OK.

So advanced stats are great to use when comparing players.  Except when they're not.

Thanks for clearing that up.
All stats need context and an understanding of their limits.

I don't know why you have such a problem with this.
9/27/2014 8:02 PM
tecwrg
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"I don't need to watch the games.  I have the stats."

Seems like you didn't need context or an understanding of limits when you said that.
9/27/2014 9:01 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 9/27/2014 9:01:00 PM (view original):
"I don't need to watch the games.  I have the stats."

Seems like you didn't need context or an understanding of limits when you said that.
Two different issues. Watching games doesn't help you if, for example, you're trying to decide if Buddy Bell was a better hitter than Derek Jeter. You need stats for that. But, when you use those stats, you need to understand their limits. Batting average, for example, isn't great in general and is especially limited if you're comparing players who played at different times in different leagues and different ballparks.
9/28/2014 12:40 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by dahsdebater on 9/27/2014 12:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/27/2014 7:28:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 9/26/2014 10:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/26/2014 5:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/26/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
Anyone that thinks 28 points in BA, 14 pts in OBP and 7 pts in SLG over 20 years makes for a "similar player" is a ******* moron.    Not sure I can say it any nicer.    Hell, just start with 400 more hits in 90 more PA and go from there.    It's ridiculous to say "Well, yeah, other than that, they're pretty similar."
Say this out loud:

"He had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   They're pretty similar."

He had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   They're pretty similar.

Doesn't bother me.
Yeah, that's because you're either A) very dumb or B) very stubborn.

400 hits.   90 plate appearances.   28 points in BA.   14 points in OBP.  7 points in slugging.   Over the course of 12000+ plate appearances.
A) Jeter played in a more offensive league, in a more offensive park, in a better lineup; the league- and park-adjusted numbers are closer than the absolute numbers

B) Jeter's average is better by a statistically significant amount, even after adjustments.  OBP and SLG are not.

C) I don't give a flying **** whether Biggio's OBP and SLG come from hitting singles or walking and getting more XBH.  Ichiro has 400 more hits than Frank Thomas in 400 FEWER plate appearances.  Who's the more valuable hitter?

D) Biggio also played better defense (still not good), stole more bases, and got caught less, making their value closer in spite of Jeter's 3 point edge in OPS+.

E) BBR's similar player algorithm, which is totally unbiased, says Biggio is the most similar player to Jeter in the history of baseball.  Jeter is the 2nd-most similar player to Biggio.  Once I found that, it should really have slowed down your argument that it was a bad comparison.  The unbiased statistical analysis says they are similar.  So you can keep saying I'm dumb or stubborn to argue that they are similar, but the best reference we have for this discussion is firmly on my side.
.014 over 12000+ plate appearances isn't significant?

9/28/2014 7:44 AM
MikeT23
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I'll add that a hit is better than a walk.   It is from a pure statistical standpoint and from a "feel" standpoint.    Has a walk every energized a team/stadium?   Have the players and fans jumped to their feet after a walk?

Jeter had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   
9/28/2014 7:53 AM
dahsdebater
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So Ichiro is more valuable than Frank Thomas?
9/28/2014 7:16 PM
MikeT23
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Does Ichiro have a .007 advantage in SLG?

9/28/2014 7:43 PM
rsp777
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Olberman says it all...
9/28/2014 8:52 PM
masterdebate
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Olbermann has jeter and knoblauch confused again
9/28/2014 9:08 PM
dahsdebater
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Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2014 7:43:00 PM (view original):

Does Ichiro have a .007 advantage in SLG?

When you factor in park and league factors, Biggio was a marginally better slugger than Jeter.

In spite of the fact that fewer of his times on base came from hits.  Just more power.


9/29/2014 1:54 AM
redsfive
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9/29/2014 5:57 AM
redsfive
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9/29/2014 6:17 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by dahsdebater on 9/29/2014 1:54:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2014 7:43:00 PM (view original):

Does Ichiro have a .007 advantage in SLG?

When you factor in park and league factors, Biggio was a marginally better slugger than Jeter.

In spite of the fact that fewer of his times on base came from hits.  Just more power.


You seem to have ignored the question.    Shocker.
9/29/2014 7:57 AM
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