Posted by MikeT23 on 12/29/2014 12:50:00 PM (view original):
Point is that Lofton got 18 votes because he's not HOF-material.    It wasn't because he wasn't "seriously considered" or "gaming the system."   It's because the VAST majority of the voters don't think some 2nd rate compiler is a HOFer.

Here are five players. One is already in the hall. One is not in yet but is a first ballot lock. Two should be but aren't (yet). And one is Lofton.

I'd say that they are all compilers. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing since we tend to judge hitters on the raw numbers they are able to compile.

Player A
9736 PA, WAR - 63.2, .308/.396/.382, 111 OPS+, 109 HR, 234 SB

Player B
9235 PA, WAR - 68.2, .299/.372/.423, 107 OPS+, 130 HR, 622 SB

Player C
12602 PA, WAR - 71.8, .310/.377/.440, 115 OPS+, 260 HR, 358 SB

Player D
10359 PA, WAR - 69.1, .294/.385/.425, 123 OPS+, 170 HR, 808 SB

Player E
12504 PA, WAR - 65.1, .281/.363/.443, 112 OPS+, 291 HR, 414 SB

Posted by bad_luck on 12/29/2014 1:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 12/29/2014 12:50:00 PM (view original):
Point is that Lofton got 18 votes because he's not HOF-material.    It wasn't because he wasn't "seriously considered" or "gaming the system."   It's because the VAST majority of the voters don't think some 2nd rate compiler is a HOFer.

Here are five players. One is already in the hall. One is not in yet but is a first ballot lock. Two should be but aren't (yet). And one is Lofton.

I'd say that they are all compilers. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing since we tend to judge hitters on the raw numbers they are able to compile.

Player A
9736 PA, WAR - 63.2, .308/.396/.382, 111 OPS+, 109 HR, 234 SB

Player B
9235 PA, WAR - 68.2, .299/.372/.423, 107 OPS+, 130 HR, 622 SB

Player C
12602 PA, WAR - 71.8, .310/.377/.440, 115 OPS+, 260 HR, 358 SB

Player D
10359 PA, WAR - 69.1, .294/.385/.425, 123 OPS+, 170 HR, 808 SB

Player E
12504 PA, WAR - 65.1, .281/.363/.443, 112 OPS+, 291 HR, 414 SB

Context is important.

Who are the players?

Lofton, Jeter, Biggio, Raines, Ashburn

Lofton = No
Jeter= Yes
Biggio = Yes
Raines = No
Ashburn = No (horrible VC selection)

And Ashburn only had 29 career HR's, so I'm not sure where you're getting your stats from.  None of those guys can be Ashburn.

I'm not asking for a yes/no. I'm comparing "compilers." All of these players are right around Hall of Fame average for their positions, with Ashburn having the weakest case of all and Jeter and Raines having the strongest.

Posted by tecwrg on 12/29/2014 2:06:00 PM (view original):
And Ashburn only had 29 career HR's, so I'm not sure where you're getting your stats from.  None of those guys can be Ashburn.

I wrote down triples instead of HR on accident.

Posted by bad_luck on 12/29/2014 2:10:00 PM (view original):
I'm not asking for a yes/no. I'm comparing "compilers." All of these players are right around Hall of Fame average for their positions, with Ashburn having the weakest case of all and Jeter and Raines having the strongest.

Too bad.  I gave you a yes/no.

In all cases (except for Jeter, whose time hasn't come yet), the BBWAA voters got it right.  And Biggio should make it this year.

Um, OK. Again, my point is that all of those compilers are right around hall of fame average for their positions. Hall of fame average is what I consider the border when it comes to borderline candidates.

Posted by bad_luck on 12/29/2014 2:18:00 PM (view original):
Um, OK. Again, my point is that all of those compilers are right around hall of fame average for their positions. Hall of fame average is what I consider the border when it comes to borderline candidates.

So you would consider Derek Jeter to be a borderline HOF candidate, along the lines of the Richie Ashburn?

LOL.

I think the most relevant point brought up was the players he went up against on that ballot. He probably would have received more votes, but the competition has him beat.

Just looking at the list real quick. Bagwell, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Edgar, McGriff, Mcgwire, Sosa, Palmeiro are clearly ahead of him in my opinion, and that's 11 guys. There's quite a few more borderline cases out there who may/may not be ahead of him that I didn't look closely at.

Palmeiro falling off the ballot last year is the most telling sign of how voters are treating steroid players.  Sosa may fall off this year since they can only vote for 10 players.

Posted by tecwrg on 12/29/2014 2:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 12/29/2014 2:18:00 PM (view original):
Um, OK. Again, my point is that all of those compilers are right around hall of fame average for their positions. Hall of fame average is what I consider the border when it comes to borderline candidates.

So you would consider Derek Jeter to be a borderline HOF candidate, along the lines of the Richie Ashburn?

LOL.

I would consider Jeter to be just above Hall of Fame average for shortstops. Along with Raines, he has the strongest hall case of the players I listed. Ashburn has the worst.

I'm not saying that Jeter isn't a hall of famer. But let's be real, he's not Wagner/Ripken/Arod level. He's Larkin level.

Posted by stinenavy on 12/29/2014 2:33:00 PM (view original):
I think the most relevant point brought up was the players he went up against on that ballot. He probably would have received more votes, but the competition has him beat.

Just looking at the list real quick. Bagwell, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Edgar, McGriff, Mcgwire, Sosa, Palmeiro are clearly ahead of him in my opinion, and that's 11 guys. There's quite a few more borderline cases out there who may/may not be ahead of him that I didn't look closely at.

That would be legit IF voters were voting for 10 each year.   They aren't. 

Again, 540ish didn't vote for him.   That's a statement on his worthiness.

And I'm almost certain BL is including dWAR in his numbers.   Most of us don't accept that as a legit stat just yet.   Simply because a guy can be the bestest defensive player ever one season, Jason Giambi-like the next two and then the bestest ever again in consecutive seasons.