Mike Trout Topic

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/25/2015 5:49:00 PM (view original):
The problem is that tec is too dumb to grasp the difference between looking at K rates after a season and trying to assess how effective the batter was based on his K rate and using K rate to predict future returns....

Retrospectively, Ks don't matter very much.  But changing K rate can still make you better.  And tec probably thinks that's an oxymoronic pair of sentences.

Why are you saying that I'm "looking at K rates after a season and trying to assess how effective the batter was based on his K rate and using K rate to predict future returns"?  Show me where I've done that.

And K's DO matter, for hitters.  Show me a strikeout that moves a runner from second to third, or scores him from third, and then we can debate if they "
don't matter very much".
2/25/2015 7:07 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/25/2015 4:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/25/2015 4:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/25/2015 4:14:00 PM (view original):
Trout isn't trying to trade strikeouts for groundouts.
Of course he isn't.   He'd like to get more hits or, barring that, draw more walks.    But you know what doesn't happen when you swing and miss?   Hits or walks. 


Pretty sure we've been thru this before. 
"Of course he isn't." I guess we're done here. Trout is trying to make less outs.
Or, perhaps, put more balls in play.   You know, by not striking out.

I think we're done now.
2/25/2015 7:14 PM
No one has ever said that a K was equal to a ball in play.
2/25/2015 7:15 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/25/2015 7:15:00 PM (view original):
No one has ever said that a K was equal to a ball in play.
You did, if the ball in play became an out.

"Outs are outs".  Some nonsense like that.
2/25/2015 7:17 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 2/25/2015 7:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/25/2015 7:15:00 PM (view original):
No one has ever said that a K was equal to a ball in play.
You did, if the ball in play became an out.

"Outs are outs".  Some nonsense like that.
Yeah, you're dumb. Ball in play is not the same thing as an out in play.
2/25/2015 7:33 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 2/25/2015 7:07:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 2/25/2015 5:49:00 PM (view original):
The problem is that tec is too dumb to grasp the difference between looking at K rates after a season and trying to assess how effective the batter was based on his K rate and using K rate to predict future returns....

Retrospectively, Ks don't matter very much.  But changing K rate can still make you better.  And tec probably thinks that's an oxymoronic pair of sentences.

Why are you saying that I'm "looking at K rates after a season and trying to assess how effective the batter was based on his K rate and using K rate to predict future returns"?  Show me where I've done that.

And K's DO matter, for hitters.  Show me a strikeout that moves a runner from second to third, or scores him from third, and then we can debate if they "
don't matter very much".
Show me a strikeout that grounds into a double play.
2/25/2015 7:36 PM

Show me a strikeout that becomes a hit or an error.

2/25/2015 7:40 PM
Career BABIP .361
Career BA  .305

# of career hits on a strikeout   0

2/25/2015 7:41 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/25/2015 7:40:00 PM (view original):

Show me a strikeout that becomes a hit or an error.

No one is arguing that a strikeout is the same as a ball in play.
2/25/2015 7:42 PM
Seriously, one of you just needs to say "Trout's OPS+ has been essentially the same for the last 3 years.   He just needs to STFU and swing the bat."

I'll accept that as a legit opinion from the "advanced metrics" crowd.    Anything else is just bullshit.   
2/25/2015 7:43 PM
You're actually doing exactly what I accused you of in my initial post, ironically enough.  You're trying to analyze seasons based on K rates.  Very accurate mathematical analysis has shown repeatedly that the actual cost of a strikeout vs. a groundout or a flyout is extremely, extremely small.  With 1 out and a runner on 1st, a strikeout is a little better than an out in play.  With 1 out and a runner on 2nd or 3rd it's a little bit worse.  With 2 outs it never matters.  With the bases empty it never matters.  It averages out to being pretty even.  If you're going to look at how good a player's season was, you can ignore strikeouts.

If you want to get better, though, it helps to cut down on your strikeouts.  Not because of the absurdly marginal bump in value you might provide by moving a few runners over and grounding into a few more DPs.  It's because the balls you don't K on turn into hits, or at least some of them do.  Trout's career BABIP is .361.  He K'd an extra 48 times last year as opposed to 2013, in slightly fewer PAs.  Take 50 strikeouts away, have those balls go into play, and even if none of them are HR, he averages 18 more hits.  That's 30 points of batting average, and at least 30 points of slugging, and 25 points of OBP.  So bare minimum, no XBH, it's 55 points of OPS.  That's pretty significant.

It's fair to look at a player and say that if he cut his strikeout rate, he could probably be better than he was.  But you can't look at an individual season and try to claim that it's worse than it was because of high K rates, or better because of low K rates.  Those are dramatically different things.
2/25/2015 7:46 PM
I feel like Mike gets the difference and is just trolling, but tec somehow just has this going way over his head.
2/25/2015 7:47 PM
I struggled thru that long-winded post, you know I hate that, but I think you pretty much nailed it.    It's largely situational. 

And, because Trout thinks he's need to cut his strikeouts down, I'm thinking he thinks he was less useful to the team because of WHEN he whiffed.   And he'd know better than I because I'm not analyzing his AB. 
2/25/2015 7:56 PM

And that's despite his OPS+ being essentially the same over the last three seasons. 

2/25/2015 7:57 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/25/2015 7:56:00 PM (view original):
I struggled thru that long-winded post, you know I hate that, but I think you pretty much nailed it.    It's largely situational. 

And, because Trout thinks he's need to cut his strikeouts down, I'm thinking he thinks he was less useful to the team because of WHEN he whiffed.   And he'd know better than I because I'm not analyzing his AB. 
Trouts goal isn't to change how he made outs, his goal is to make less outs.
2/25/2015 8:07 PM
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Mike Trout Topic

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