Just read an article that says Trout actually swings VERY infrequently at pitches up, out of the strike zone, or up in the strike zone, compared to others. But pitchers are starting to throw a ton of pitches up to him because he does little damage to them, and often swings through them, hence, the strikeouts. But as far as "laying off the high pitch" he actually does it at a much better rate than most, probably because he recognizes he doesn't hit high pitches well.

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 10:05:00 AM (view original):
OPS+ and oWAR are comparison stats. You can't get those stats without comparing him to other players.

If I have an OPS of 1.000 in my rec league, what's my OPS+?

For ****'s sake.   It's compared to the other players in the league.

If his OPS+ is 170 every season, it's 170 every season.    He's much better than the average players.
If his oWAR is 8 every season, it's 8 every season.    He's much better than the average players.

He has been equally productive, using these advanced metrics, in each of the last three seasons.    If he had a 207 OPS+ in one of those seasons, he would have been MORE productive in that season. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 10:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 10:05:00 AM (view original):
OPS+ and oWAR are comparison stats. You can't get those stats without comparing him to other players.

If I have an OPS of 1.000 in my rec league, what's my OPS+?

For ****'s sake.   It's compared to the other players in the league.

If his OPS+ is 170 every season, it's 170 every season.    He's much better than the average players.
If his oWAR is 8 every season, it's 8 every season.    He's much better than the average players.

He has been equally productive, using these advanced metrics, in each of the last three seasons.    If he had a 207 OPS+ in one of those seasons, he would have been MORE productive in that season. 

Correct, like I said, you're comparing him to others in the league. He's comparing himself to what HE has done previously. He struck out 30% more often he had did previously, and he recognizes that's an issue. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 10:02:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 10:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 9:50:00 AM (view original):
Using "advanced metrics", he was just as productive as he was in the previous two seasons. 

Obviously, he thinks striking out less would make him more productive.

You're looking at stats that compare him to others in 2014. Offense fell overall in the American League from 2013 to 2014. I'm comparing him to himself in the years prior. He had more productive seasons in 2012 and 2013.

No, I'm looking at TROUT'S OPS+ and oWAR(because dWAR is bullshit and has nothing to do with striking out).    It's essentially the same over the last three seasons.    

You're an idiot.

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 10:20:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 10:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 10:05:00 AM (view original):
OPS+ and oWAR are comparison stats. You can't get those stats without comparing him to other players.

If I have an OPS of 1.000 in my rec league, what's my OPS+?

For ****'s sake.   It's compared to the other players in the league.

If his OPS+ is 170 every season, it's 170 every season.    He's much better than the average players.
If his oWAR is 8 every season, it's 8 every season.    He's much better than the average players.

He has been equally productive, using these advanced metrics, in each of the last three seasons.    If he had a 207 OPS+ in one of those seasons, he would have been MORE productive in that season. 

Correct, like I said, you're comparing him to others in the league. He's comparing himself to what HE has done previously. He struck out 30% more often he had did previously, and he recognizes that's an issue. 

For ****'s sake V2.

Advanced metrics say he was equally productive.    Perhaps he doesn't "understand" them.    Tell BL to call and explain them to him.

If a player bats .250 with 15 homers, and the next year bats .280 with 20 homers, does he have to say "I don't know if I was more productive, let me compare myself to the rest of the league in both seasons, and then I'll let you know?"

Trout did not have as good of a season as he did the year before, based on batting average, obp, ops, and others, and he thinks that because he missed a lot of fastballs up in the zone last year. He's probably right. If you told him "No! You were just as good because the rest of the league didn't hit as well!" he'd think there's something wrong with you.

The goal of a plate appearance by a hitter should be to put your offense in a better position to score runs after your PA has ended than when it started.

You get three strikes in a PA.  Which means that you have at least two opportunities (and likely more) to be aggressive with your swings to do something productively offensively.

But when you have two strikes on you, you HAVE TO change your approach.  You need to try to salvage something productive out of your PA, because you're down to your last chance.  Walking back to the dugout with your bat in your hand does not salvage anything.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/26/2015 11:20:00 AM (view original):
The goal of a plate appearance by a hitter should be to put your offense in a better position to score runs after your PA has ended than when it started.

You get three strikes in a PA.  Which means that you have at least two opportunities (and likely more) to be aggressive with your swings to do something productively offensively.

But when you have two strikes on you, you HAVE TO change your approach.  You need to try to salvage something productive out of your PA, because you're down to your last chance.  Walking back to the dugout with your bat in your hand does not salvage anything.

I agree, to a point. It doesn't mean your sluggers need to choke up like Felix Millan and do everything they can not to strike out. Be a similar player to who you are. But yes, change something. Your mindset, at the very least, has to change. 

Some of the best sluggers in baseball strike out quite a bit. Otherwise they wouldn't be sluggers. They swing very hard. For the most part, that's ok.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/25/2015 9:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/25/2015 8:45:00 PM (view original):
Last year, he hit 19 doubles, 8 triples, and 14 HR with 2 strikes.  So there's that...

How does this stat line compare with his total stat line?

.215

.297

.432

.729

 

To put this in persepective, 52% of his PA's that reached a two strike count resulted in a strikeout.

BL and burnsy, do you believe that Trout changing his approach on a two strike count would make that stat line better or worse?  Or no difference?

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 11:10:00 AM (view original):
If a player bats .250 with 15 homers, and the next year bats .280 with 20 homers, does he have to say "I don't know if I was more productive, let me compare myself to the rest of the league in both seasons, and then I'll let you know?"

Trout did not have as good of a season as he did the year before, based on batting average, obp, ops, and others, and he thinks that because he missed a lot of fastballs up in the zone last year. He's probably right. If you told him "No! You were just as good because the rest of the league didn't hit as well!" he'd think there's something wrong with you.

Comparing to league, or historical, averages is what "advanced metrics" is all about.

Should a guy hitting 48 homers today think he's not a very good power hitter because Bonds, McGwire, Sosa were smacking 60 with regularity?

Any player's stat line is going to look much worse with 2 strikes because you only have 1 more strike until you're out. If the game was "1 strike and you're out" there would be so much less offense. You only have one chance to be productive, essentially.

Jeter's stat line with 2 strikes for his career was .228/.315/.314.  Did he give you the impression of being a poor 2 strike batter? 

If Trout changed his approach to be more of a contact hitter with 2 strikes, his slugging percentage would go down, and his batting average would probably go up. If he's a .240/.325/.370 hitter, is that better? Maybe? It really depends.

BTW I looked up Gwynn first before Jeter, and he's still a .300 hitter with 2 strikes. He was insane.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 11:29:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 11:10:00 AM (view original):
If a player bats .250 with 15 homers, and the next year bats .280 with 20 homers, does he have to say "I don't know if I was more productive, let me compare myself to the rest of the league in both seasons, and then I'll let you know?"

Trout did not have as good of a season as he did the year before, based on batting average, obp, ops, and others, and he thinks that because he missed a lot of fastballs up in the zone last year. He's probably right. If you told him "No! You were just as good because the rest of the league didn't hit as well!" he'd think there's something wrong with you.

Comparing to league, or historical, averages is what "advanced metrics" is all about.

Should a guy hitting 48 homers today think he's not a very good power hitter because Bonds, McGwire, Sosa were smacking 60 with regularity?

Is it what it's all about? Oh.

I would think he's just as productive as he was. He hit 48 homers in 2014. If he hit 48 homers in 1998, he wouldn't call himself "less productive." There isn't anything to "fix."  

Trout struck out more than he has been, and some of his stats suffered.  If you want to argue that all the pitchers got smarter at dealing with hitters overall, and that's why his OPS+ didn't change much, ok, I guess. Pitchers getting smarter does apply to Trout. The pitchers pitched him better, and he struck out more. He's trying to get better to get back to his productivity he had in previous years.  If all the hitters got worse last year, they still all got worse, they were all less productive.

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 11:35:00 AM (view original):
Any player's stat line is going to look much worse with 2 strikes because you only have 1 more strike until you're out. If the game was "1 strike and you're out" there would be so much less offense. You only have one chance to be productive, essentially.

Jeter's stat line with 2 strikes for his career was .228/.315/.314.  Did he give you the impression of being a poor 2 strike batter? 

If Trout changed his approach to be more of a contact hitter with 2 strikes, his slugging percentage would go down, and his batting average would probably go up. If he's a .240/.325/.370 hitter, is that better? Maybe? It really depends.

Exactly. The goal isn't just make contact. The goal is to drive the ball. Even with two strikes.

If Trout wants to make less outs next year, great. His OBP dipped in 2014 and getting it back up over .400 would be awesome. But striking out less while making the same amount of outs makes no difference.

Posted by The Taint on 2/26/2015 12:02:00 AM (view original):
Want to bet that less strikeouts equals out to more wins? 100 bucks.

Still want to make that bet?