Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 11:52:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 11:42:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 11:29:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 11:10:00 AM (view original):
If a player bats .250 with 15 homers, and the next year bats .280 with 20 homers, does he have to say "I don't know if I was more productive, let me compare myself to the rest of the league in both seasons, and then I'll let you know?"
Trout did not have as good of a season as he did the year before, based on batting average, obp, ops, and others, and he thinks that because he missed a lot of fastballs up in the zone last year. He's probably right. If you told him "No! You were just as good because the rest of the league didn't hit as well!" he'd think there's something wrong with you.
Comparing to league, or historical, averages is what "advanced metrics" is all about.
Should a guy hitting 48 homers today think he's not a very good power hitter because Bonds, McGwire, Sosa were smacking 60 with regularity?
Is it what it's all about? Oh.
I would think he's just as productive as he was. He hit 48 homers in 2014. If he hit 48 homers in 1998, he wouldn't call himself "less productive." There isn't anything to "fix."
Trout struck out more than he has been, and some of his stats suffered. If you want to argue that all the pitchers got smarter at dealing with hitters overall, and that's why his OPS+ didn't change much, ok, I guess. Pitchers getting smarter does apply to Trout. The pitchers pitched him better, and he struck out more. He's trying to get better to get back to his productivity he had in previous years. If all the hitters got worse last year, they still all got worse, they were all less productive.
Yeah, it sort of is.
A guy is called up in September and hits 12 homers in 100 AB. A guy plays all season, gets 487 AB, and hits 14 homers. Who was the better power hitter? Advanced metrics are an attempt to measure production outside of the "counting" numbers. Like strikeouts.
Advanced metrics, OPS+ and oWAR, say Trout was equally productive in 2014 despite the whiffs. Trout believes he could wasn't as productive as he could have been because of all the strikeouts. I guess both could be true but Trout believes he needs to put more balls in play. My guess he's going to do this by cutting down on his swing in certain situations.
The first guy hits home runs at a higher rate, and is likely a better power hitter. I don't know what that has to do with "league, or historical, averages."
Trout struck out on more pitches up in the zone last year than 2012 and 2013. He wants to cut down on that. He'll be a better hitter if he can lay off more pitches than he already does that are balls, and maybe fouling off more pitches in the zone with 2 strikes. At no point is he saying "everyone else in the league took a small step back too, so relative to them, I'm just the way I've always been." He's comparing what he's actually done at the plate to previous years. You're trying to have a "see! advanced stats suck!" moment but it doesn't apply. If you're asking me "who was the best player in baseball last year" I'd probably say Trout, but that's not the point here. We're not comparing Trout to others. Well, you want to, but it doesn't make a ton of sense.