Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 12:13:00 PM (view original):
You said advanced metrics were all about historical averages or some ****. I said "Are they?" Because they aren't.

Maybe the pitching WAS better overall, and Trout is saying he needs to get better because he wasn't as productive. If every hitter is less productive than they were in previous years, they were still less productive. Relative to each other? Maybe they're the same, but Trout doesn't seem concerned with comparing himself to every other player in the league right now. He's trying to cut down on his strikeouts and get on base more often, like he had in the past.

Yeah, they try to compare players from eras, or the same season, using one number.    Otherwise, no one would add a + to OPS.   The + means how much better he was than average based on any number of conditions(parks, pitching, other's production, etc, etc).    WAR is supposed to represent how much more value the player brings to a team based on the production of a replacement player.

What do you think OPS+ and WAR do?

Yes, you can look at 2014 Mike Trout and compare him to others, historically, based on those numbers. It doesn't really matter right now, though.

Mike Trout is trying to put up similar production to 2012-2013, rather than 2014. He thinks he struck out too much. He is not thinking "How did I compare to others in the league last year?" He won the MVP and thinks it wasn't good enough because he struck out too much and wasn't on base enough.

I need to leave the "arguing in circles" game for a little bit and get some work done. 

OPS+ and oWAR say he had similar production in 2014.

What part of this is not working for you?

Here is the K per game since 2004 charted to wins.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:28:00 PM (view original):
OPS+ and oWAR say he had similar production in 2014.

What part of this is not working for you?

In 2013, Trout's OPS+ was 179. Compared to 2013 league average OPS, Trout was 79% better.
In 2014, Trout's OPS+ was 167. Compared to 2014 league average OPS, Trout was 67% better.

What is your point?

If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:38:00 PM (view original):
If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Um, tec created this thread just to troll me. You're welcome to leave.

Trout was better in 2013 than he was in 2014. So trying to get back to 2013 level production is a good goal. If he can increase his OBP by striking out less, great. It doesn't change the fact that an out is an out.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:38:00 PM (view original):
If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Those particular stats are very close over the 3 seasons, and that's your point, but it's irrelevant. Trout isn't comparing himself to anyone else.

If I sell $500,000 in product one year, and $400,000 the next, I might be upset with myself for not being as successful as I was the previous year. There may be reasons why that happened (like Trout K'd more because pitchers started to figure him out), but I wasn't as successful. And telling me "Don't worry about it, you were the leading salesman this year!" doesn't mean I'm not trying to find ways to be as successful as I was that first year. That's what Trout's doing.

You're trying to make this a "advanced stats suck" thing, but it just doesn't apply to this situation. Trout wants to strike out less and get on base more, like he was previously.

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 1:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:38:00 PM (view original):
If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Those particular stats are very close over the 3 seasons, and that's your point, but it's irrelevant. Trout isn't comparing himself to anyone else.

If I sell $500,000 in product one year, and $400,000 the next, I might be upset with myself for not being as successful as I was the previous year. There may be reasons why that happened (like Trout K'd more because pitchers started to figure him out), but I wasn't as successful. And telling me "Don't worry about it, you were the leading salesman this year!" doesn't mean I'm not trying to find ways to be as successful as I was that first year. That's what Trout's doing.

You're trying to make this a "advanced stats suck" thing, but it just doesn't apply to this situation. Trout wants to strike out less and get on base more, like he was previously.

I'm pretty sure I haven't said "advanced stats suck" in this thread.

My point is, and has been, that Trout thinks he could be a better player by striking out less.  He can't guarantee that any of those strikeoutless AB will be anything but different kinds of outs.   But he wants to put the ball in play more.    As I've said, repeatedly, maybe he doesn't understand "advanced metrics" because they say he's the same guy, production-wise, all three seasons.  

I think "baseball people" understand the value of not striking out better than "stat people".     Trout is "baseball people".

And, FWIW, every player is trying to be better than he was yesterday.   Trout just explained a very specific way in which he felt he'd be better.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 1:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 1:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:38:00 PM (view original):
If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Those particular stats are very close over the 3 seasons, and that's your point, but it's irrelevant. Trout isn't comparing himself to anyone else.

If I sell $500,000 in product one year, and $400,000 the next, I might be upset with myself for not being as successful as I was the previous year. There may be reasons why that happened (like Trout K'd more because pitchers started to figure him out), but I wasn't as successful. And telling me "Don't worry about it, you were the leading salesman this year!" doesn't mean I'm not trying to find ways to be as successful as I was that first year. That's what Trout's doing.

You're trying to make this a "advanced stats suck" thing, but it just doesn't apply to this situation. Trout wants to strike out less and get on base more, like he was previously.

I'm pretty sure I haven't said "advanced stats suck" in this thread.

My point is, and has been, that Trout thinks he could be a better player by striking out less.  He can't guarantee that any of those strikeoutless AB will be anything but different kinds of outs.   But he wants to put the ball in play more.    As I've said, repeatedly, maybe he doesn't understand "advanced metrics" because they say he's the same guy, production-wise, all three seasons.  

I think "baseball people" understand the value of not striking out better than "stat people".     Trout is "baseball people".

That's great. If he can increase his OBP by striking out less without diminishing his power, awesome. That doesn't change the fact that an out is an out.

If Trout strikes out only 50 times in 2015 while keeping the same exact 2014 triple slash, he didn't improve.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 1:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 1:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:38:00 PM (view original):
If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Those particular stats are very close over the 3 seasons, and that's your point, but it's irrelevant. Trout isn't comparing himself to anyone else.

If I sell $500,000 in product one year, and $400,000 the next, I might be upset with myself for not being as successful as I was the previous year. There may be reasons why that happened (like Trout K'd more because pitchers started to figure him out), but I wasn't as successful. And telling me "Don't worry about it, you were the leading salesman this year!" doesn't mean I'm not trying to find ways to be as successful as I was that first year. That's what Trout's doing.

You're trying to make this a "advanced stats suck" thing, but it just doesn't apply to this situation. Trout wants to strike out less and get on base more, like he was previously.

I'm pretty sure I haven't said "advanced stats suck" in this thread.

My point is, and has been, that Trout thinks he could be a better player by striking out less.  He can't guarantee that any of those strikeoutless AB will be anything but different kinds of outs.   But he wants to put the ball in play more.    As I've said, repeatedly, maybe he doesn't understand "advanced metrics" because they say he's the same guy, production-wise, all three seasons.  

I think "baseball people" understand the value of not striking out better than "stat people".     Trout is "baseball people".

You probably consider me a "stat person" and I would tell you that Trout had better years in 2012-13 than last year. Again, I don't think Trout necessarily cares about stats that compare him to other players in the league right now. He sees the increase in Ks, decrease in how often he's on base, and wants to fix those.

He wants to be on base more. If his goal was "make sure my outs aren't so many strikeouts" then that would be dumb. But he understands the value of making less outs.

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 1:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/26/2015 1:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/26/2015 12:38:00 PM (view original):
If you're responding to me, just stop.   I'm not opening your dumbassery.    Otherwise, I'd end up like taint last night.   Arguing circles with you for two hours.

OPS+ and oWAR are almost identical for Trout during his three full BL seasons.    That's the point.    He thinks he could do better by striking out less.   I'm assuming he doesn't understand "advanced metrics".    Perhaps he should have said he'd work on hitting more homers.   That's real work.

Those particular stats are very close over the 3 seasons, and that's your point, but it's irrelevant. Trout isn't comparing himself to anyone else.

If I sell $500,000 in product one year, and $400,000 the next, I might be upset with myself for not being as successful as I was the previous year. There may be reasons why that happened (like Trout K'd more because pitchers started to figure him out), but I wasn't as successful. And telling me "Don't worry about it, you were the leading salesman this year!" doesn't mean I'm not trying to find ways to be as successful as I was that first year. That's what Trout's doing.

You're trying to make this a "advanced stats suck" thing, but it just doesn't apply to this situation. Trout wants to strike out less and get on base more, like he was previously.

I'm pretty sure I haven't said "advanced stats suck" in this thread.

My point is, and has been, that Trout thinks he could be a better player by striking out less.  He can't guarantee that any of those strikeoutless AB will be anything but different kinds of outs.   But he wants to put the ball in play more.    As I've said, repeatedly, maybe he doesn't understand "advanced metrics" because they say he's the same guy, production-wise, all three seasons.  

I think "baseball people" understand the value of not striking out better than "stat people".     Trout is "baseball people".

You probably consider me a "stat person" and I would tell you that Trout had better years in 2012-13 than last year. Again, I don't think Trout necessarily cares about stats that compare him to other players in the league right now. He sees the increase in Ks, decrease in how often he's on base, and wants to fix those.

He wants to be on base more. If his goal was "make sure my outs aren't so many strikeouts" then that would be dumb. But he understands the value of making less outs.

Not so much. 

I could say "He was better at this and this, worse at that and that" but it's pretty pointless.  You can see his stats too.    His stated goal is to strike out less.   The only thing we can assume is he believes that will make him a better player. 

FWIW, I'm not sure he was better in 12-13.   Total bases, one step closer to scoring a run, was at it's career high.    He scored more and drove in more(although I think we agree that's more opportunity based) but he moved himself, and other players, from station to station at a career best.   He thinks he can do better by striking out less.

He said he wanted to convert some of those strikeouts and make them hits. His OBP was lower than it had been. It makes sense that he would say that. He understands the importance of being on base.

Yes, his slugging percentage was basically the same over the 3 years.

Does he not want to turn some flyouts into hits?    GiDP into singles?   He wants to make more contact because he thinks he'll be a better player if he does.   Or take a walk rather than swing and miss.

And his OPS+ and oWAR were basically the same over the 3 years.