I just read an article in the past few days - I don't remember where - that was discussing the rise in elite relief pitching.  The number of relievers able to throw substantial numbers of innings while maintaining a sub-2 ERA now is staggeringly much higher than ever before.  I suspect a lot of that comes down to managers using their best relief arms in well-defined roles for shorter durations.

A lot of fans, especially older fans, long for the days of Goose Gossage when you'd go to your best guy whenever you needed him.  The reality is, relief pitchers as a group were overwhelmingly less effective when utilized like that.  When guys did do a really good job with it, it was impressive.  But most guys didn't do a really good job with it, at least not for extended periods of time.  I find it much harder to believe that the overall quality of relievers has gone up overwhelmingly in the past few decades than that the current method of utilizing relievers tends to produce substantially better results.  The proof is, as they say, in the pudding.  Bullpen ERAs are far more differentiated from starters' ERAs in the past 2 decades than ever before.  In fact, for much of baseball history, bullpen ERAs were worse, since the best arms were generally starting.  That's probably still true, but now we've learned to help those bullpen arms play up.  As much as we might want to watch the next Goose Gossage, the reality is that we'd likely see a decline in bullpen performance back towards the Goose Gossage era if we saw much of that.  I don't think that's really what people want to see from their teams.

The warm-up is a legit issue.   The "well-defined role" smells like bullshit.

Pitchers have to get ready to pitch.   A half inning should be long enough.   If a manager calls the pen in the 6th, after reviewing match-ups, there's no reason ANY pitcher shouldn't be ready in the 7th.   It's the up-down of warming up that's a problem.  But that's the manager.  Make a decision, stick to it.   As for the mindset of RP, that can change as it has changed over the years.   If the mindset is "Be ready on a half innings notice any time after the 6th inning", a pitcher should be able to prepare himself.   If he can't, he'll soon be out of a job.  The whole "1 inning closer only in save situations to start the 9th" is 20 years old.  That can start to change right now in the minors. 

And a manager can easily say "You've pitched the last two.  Wear your Crocs in the bullpen tonight" as he can tell a guy to be ready after the 6th.   The whole problem would start if he told a guy to get ready, changed his mind then tells him to get ready two innings later.   
 

I dunno, I used to pitch out of the bullpen, and I would have loved to know when I was expected to be ready so I could start getting into the right mindset.  It's not easy to be "on" or "ready to go" for extended periods of time, and can be tiring/taxing.  Not everybody can just get the call from the manager, go start warming up right away, and be at their best.  Obviously I'm not a pro-level pitcher, but I'm not sure that would change...

I'm pretty sure you're about half my age.   When I played, we did what the coach said.   I was dead pull but, when the coach said "I want to bat you 2nd but you have to hit backside", I learned how.    I played SS for 5-6 years and the HS coach said "We have a better SS, can you play 2nd?", I played 2nd.   The 1B ******* that I was handcuffing him by throwing too hard, and not accurate enough, at short distances and the coach said "Looks like you're moving to CF" and off I went.   Switch that "organization" at the pro level and the players adapt or make way for those who can.

As I said, it's a mindset now.   Nolan Ryan extended his pitchers in the minors so they could pitch deeper in the bigs.   Not saying that's the most effective way to go but they were pitching deeper into the game. 

I think we agree that Rivera was the best RP in the last 20 years.   He was a starter(failed), set-up for Wetteland(awesome) and a closer.   He wasn't born just pitching the 9th in save situations.   He became that. 

Anyway, baseball doesn't have a clock.   It's not like the closer starts getting ready at 3 PM every day because the game is at 4.    He gets ready by inning.   That can change. 

Pitchers are creatures of habit.  If Romo knows he owns the 8th inning in a close game, he has a pretty good idea in the 5th or 6th if he should be getting mentally prepared (i.e. Giants have a two-run lead).  If the Giants extend to a bigger lead, Strickland will pitch the 8th.

There's comfort in knowing your role.  It might not be optimal from a WAR, MF!!! standpoint, but we're dealing with people with routines and mental prep (even if we think it's horseshit).  They believe it, and it makes them more effective when used consistently.

For the most part, Giants fans can tell you who will be coming in to pitch based on the score (barring a Javy Lopez LOOGY moment).  That's how Bochy took non-elite arms and made them a great bullpen.

I think your missing the point.

Think of it like this.  How many guys did you play with that started getting ready for their at-bat about 3 hitters before they were due up?  I knew a lot.  If the guy was hitting 7th, he'd be watching the game or joking with his teammates while the guys hitting 8th-3rd are up.  Then around the cleanup and 5-hole guy he'll have his head down, maybe muttering to himself.  Lots of guys like to prepare for their AB by visualizing or talking to themselves before they go up on the on-deck circle.  Starters will do the same thing - talkative for the first 2 outs in the dugout, but once there's one out left until they have to back onto the field, they go silent.  Relievers can do the same sort of mental preparation if they have a good idea when they are likely to start getting ready physically to enter the game.  They can't if their role changes from day to day.

Generally speaking, you probably knew what position you were likely playing at least half an hour before the game.  Probably the day before.  You knew before each at-bat where you were in the lineup.  It's not the same as changing roles between seasons, or even between games as a result of injury or similar.  Some guys like to know when they're likely to enter a game and in what capacity.  Some don't care as much.  That's probably why some good hitters make mediocre pinch hitters, while others do just fine.  Jim Thome had 163 career PAs as a pinch hitter and hit .217/.331/.399.  You think not knowing when he was coming to the plate didn't affect him?  In 59 career PAs as a pinch hitter, Manny Ramirez managed just 5 hits, for a .116 average.  David Ortiz has over 100 career PAs as a PH with a .183 average.  That's just 3 guys I can think of off the top of my head that I've seen struggle as pinch hitters, in spite of generally being deployed with a platoon advantage.  You can't tell me baseball players don't play better when they know when they're about to need to perform.  Why should it not also apply to pitchers?

They're creatures of habit because they've been allowed to become creatures of habit.    There is no difference between getting ready to pitch the 6th or getting ready to pitch the 9th.   Unless you're worried about that stat.    Again, no clock.    In the NFL, you play at a specific time.   In baseball, a pitcher might enter the game at 3 PM, 3:45 PM, 8:38 PM or 11:52 PM.     There is a "game time" for 9 guys.   The rest don't have a set starting time. 

Posted by dahsdebater on 1/20/2016 4:44:00 PM (view original):
Even Boche still uses one at a time as the primary closer, he just switches back and forth.  He doesn't switch it more than once per season.

Wrong.  He'll go with "the hot hand" between Romo/Casilla bouncing them between the 8th/9th.  He also protects Romo from lefties, who are hitting about .750 against him.

I'm not missing the point.

How long does that batter have to get himself ready?  Less than half an inning.    That's how long the RP has to get himself mentally and physically ready.   No one is saying he needs to jump up when the last out is made, run to the mound and get ready. 

I'm not using 150 AB as a guideline for anything.   EVERYONE likes to be in a comfort zone.   I'm suggesting that pitchers can extend that comfort zone by a couple of innings.   I'm really not buying that it's impossible.   As I said, the "1 inning closer in the 9th only during save situations" is new in baseball terms.   Pitchers have become conditioned to it.   You can't change the 33 y/o closer.   He is what he is.   But that 19 y/o in AA can learn to adapt.   Or, if he can't, he's a 20 y/o working at daddy's feed store.

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/20/2016 7:09:00 PM (view original):
They're creatures of habit because they've been allowed to become creatures of habit.    There is no difference between getting ready to pitch the 6th or getting ready to pitch the 9th.   Unless you're worried about that stat.    Again, no clock.    In the NFL, you play at a specific time.   In baseball, a pitcher might enter the game at 3 PM, 3:45 PM, 8:38 PM or 11:52 PM.     There is a "game time" for 9 guys.   The rest don't have a set starting time. 

No, it's a timing thing.  You DON'T KNOW when the high-leverage moment will arrive.  Your starter could run out of gas in the 6th and give up back-to-back singles.  Your shut-down reliever likely wouldn't have been warming up right away, so it becomes a fire drill in the bullpen, and the guy who gets warm the fastest will likely be the first bullet out of the bullpen.

Your 8th/9th inning guys probably aren't even paying attention yet.... nor should they be.  The team's job is to give them the lead after 7, and they'll handle it from there.  If it's a close game (aka, a "save" situation), we know, by definition, the 8th/9th are high-leverage situations, so they're being saved for those KNOWN high-leverage times.

The manager knows when a starter is tiring.  He knows when he'll need a RP.   And he'll know who's batting in the next inning.

Mid-inning replacements are more problematic.    THAT guy has a tough job.     The guy who might pitch the 7th or 9th can prep the same way.

Obviously, we're not going to see eye to eye on this.

It's also pretty obvious that I'm right.  In the 21st century, when managers have used relievers in clearly-defined roles, they've been between 5 and 10% better than starters.  In the '70s, when relievers were used less reliably, starters were better than relievers by a few % points.  Seems fairly cut and dried to me.

Are you telling me you've never seen a starter hit a wall without a lot of warning and a reliever has to be warmed up quickly and rushed in?  Or a middle reliever just doesn't have it and has to be replaced sooner than expected, mid-inning?  I'd think on the average team I've usually seen the former event 10-15 times a year, the latter 5-10.  So for an average team, at least roughly 20 times a year your high-leverage situation can't be easily anticipated.  And that's utterly ignoring mid-inning injuries...

It's "obvious" that you're right because we have a whooping 15-20 years of evidence.   And NO ONE is doing anything differently.    It can't be one team because of the pay structure.   Mr.Closer isn't going to pitch for a team that uses it's best reliever in the 7th.   Because he's Mr.Closer not Mr.Pitchinthemostimportantpartofthegame.

Are you denying that the current usage of closers is new in baseball terms?   Because, if you're not, you're confirming my point.  Pitchers are conditioned to pitch in clearly defined roles.   If a few teams changed that, in their minors now, those pitchers would be conditioned to pitch when the manager called on them.   Because, if they didn't, they wouldn't be pitching very long.

Finally, I said the mid-inning replacement is tougher.    Under my "system", you have guys who do that.   They aren't the best RP, they're just the most versatile.   The guys who HAVE to pitch when called upon or they're on a bus to AAA. 

It's absolutely insane to me that you're arguing that the guy accustomed to coming into the game in the 9th couldn't possibly adapt and enter games in the 7th when the meat of the order is up.   That he can magically flip a switch in the bottom of the 8th and come out with guns blazin' in the 9th but can't find that switch in the bottom of the 6th.   Are RP that fragile?