Posted by MikeT23 on 1/20/2016 9:11:00 PM (view original):
I'll ask this and be done with it. Your best RP and your 2nd best RP are available. You have a 1 run lead.
3-4-5 are coming up in the 8th.
7-8-9 are coming up in the 9th.
What usage would give you the best chance to win?
I disagree with the premise.
Well-built teams in the 2010s have multiple elite relief arms. There isn't necessarily a clear differentiation between your best and 2nd-best arms. That's why most managers and GMs seem to think that anything they can do to raise the level of their pitchers is probably worth more than trying to put the "best" arms in the highest leverage situations.
In the most extreme example, if you're Ned Yost in 2015, do you really feel the need to bring Holland in early for a high-pressure situation when the guys in front of him are Madson, Herrerra, and Davis? If you're 2016 Joe Girardi, do you feel the need to bring Chapman in early - potentially out of his comfort zone - when you've got Miller and Betances?
I'm more of an AL guy, as I think you are. Of the top 20 relievers in the AL this year by ERA (50+ IP), only 3 had 20+ saves. I think the situation in the NL is similar, I can look when I get a chance. But regardless, the best relievers aren't necessarily closing. And some setup guys are being paid handsomely, contrary to popular belief. When you have an abundance of high quality arms, I think it makes sense to keep them all comfortable with well-defined roles and usage patterns.
As I said earlier, if I'm the Mets, I might go to my closer early in the right situation. But most teams don't need to do it. They have other guys who are similarly talented to their 9th inning guy.