Seahawks! SUPER BOWL Champs! Topic

MikeT23
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If SF let him go, he'd be out of work for an hour.    Right now, there's no worse place to be than for the guy you have to be neither the present or the future.   Wash, Tampa, Tenn, ugh.    With Wilson, you know what you have.   And, because of that, you can structure your team around it.   Problem in SF is they have no idea which guy they're getting in any given week. 
12/15/2014 4:05 PM
moranis
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/15/2014 3:52:00 PM (view original):
You almost have to, IMO.   The way the game is set up now, you have to have a QB who's in the top third of the NFL.    Guys like Smith and Wilson have to concentrate on playing mistake free, thus letting the D win, while the more talented guys, Rodgers and Brady-types, can attempt to win a shootout.   Teams that have "QB battles" in training camp aren't winning a lot of games in the fall/winter.
Is Wilson in the top third, though?

20th in passing yards
20th in completion percentage
15th in TD's (15th in TD% when removing the part timers of Palmer and Cousins)
14th in yards per attempt
14th in QB Rating
13th in total QBR (that ESPN stat)
5th in sacks (not good)
3rd in INT% (4th if you count Palmer)
1st in rushing yards and rushing TD's

So aside from the rushing and his lack of INT's he isn't in the top third of any of the major positive categories.  He seems much more like a game manager than a player that you would want to pay huge money to. 

He obviously wouldn't be a free agent for very long as he is clearly better than a lot of starting QB's, but I just don't see him as a 20 million dollar type QB and frankly would be stretching it at 15 million a year.

12/15/2014 5:39 PM (edited)
MikeT23
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Wanna name the 11 you'd take before him?

He doesn't turn the ball over and he extends plays with his legs.   That allows the D to not get stuck with a short field and provides his less than stellar corp of receivers to get open.   That's exactly what SEA needs him to do.

I'm not a big fan but I don't think there are 11 QB I'd take over him.

Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers are the obvious(and three of them won't be around that much longer).
I think Luck rounds out the top 5.

Then I think you've got a mixed bag of good/bad.  I'd have no problem putting Wilson in the front, or the back, of this group:  Kap, Eli, Romo, Rothlisberger, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, Smith, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco.    Truth is, he's probably somewhere in the middle.    And, if I had to win a close game, I'd take him over almost all of them.   Because he doesn't turn the ball over.
12/15/2014 5:47 PM
MikeT23
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Anyway, my point was/is that if you have a guy you think you can win with, you almost have to give him the stupid money contract.   Because someone else will if you don't.    A team with a **** defense can't use Wilson because they need a guy who can win the shootout by throwing for 450 yards.   But a team built on running the ball, controlling the clock and playing good D can.   Because he doesn't do dumb **** with the ball. 

12/15/2014 6:04 PM
toddcommish
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Kap is a great physical specimen, but a terrible quarterback.  Once defenses figured out what he could do (run), they've been able to basically shut him down.  The current roster of the 49ers would have been better served with Alex Smith or similar "game manager" type, rather than a random play generator like Kaepernick.

Russell Wilson is Kaepernick minus height plus 40 IQ points.
12/15/2014 6:20 PM
stinenavy
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Like I said before, efficiency has value. His O-Line has not played that well, and his WR corps is not that good.

If you look at the 18 QBs that have started all their team's games, 14 have played their careers with one team.

The others are:
Peyton Manning- Dumped with Colts getting Luck. Denver was chosen by Peyton with a bunch of teams clamoring for him despite huge issues if he could play again, much less be effective.
Drew Brees- Not re-signed due to having Rivers, and big concerns about his shoulder, so much so that Miami decided to sign Culpepper instead.
Alex Smith- Traded to KC after SF went with Kaepernick and his higher potential.
Jay Cutler- Traded by Denver for two 1sts.

So pretty much if you have anyone worth a damn, you keep them, unless you have another viable QB already on the team. No team is letting a valuable QB touch the market otherwise. Seahawks are better off signing Russell Wilson for $18M+ then signing whatever scrub that is available in free agency for the minimum.
12/15/2014 6:20 PM
MikeT23
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I think Dalton and Smith are two very good examples.   No one who watches football will put either of them in the top 10.  But both got big money because they're better than starting over.   I think it takes about 3 seasons to figure out what you've got in a QB in today's game(Luck is the obvious exception).    Odds are Tampa will draft Winston/Mariota.  And, in 2018, they might be starting over or they'll sign that guy to a long-term deal. 
12/15/2014 6:39 PM
examinerebb
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I understand the "if you don't pay him someone else will" argument.  I don't understand the "his OL and WR are not good" defense.  How the hell will locking up $19+ million more in cap room improve the OL/WR?  Let me help - it won't.  What it means is you'll have the same (if not worse) level of WR and OL players, coupled with a weakened defense.  That doesn't sound like a recipe for success to me.  If all you want is to say "we finally got a franchise QB," then great.  If you want to win titles, it seems to make it a lot harder.
12/15/2014 6:55 PM
stinenavy
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So in your dream world what do you do about your QB position?
12/15/2014 6:58 PM
The Taint
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Posted by examinerebb on 12/15/2014 6:56:00 PM (view original):
I understand the "if you don't pay him someone else will" argument.  I don't understand the "his OL and WR are not good" defense.  How the hell will locking up $19+ million more in cap room improve the OL/WR?  Let me help - it won't.  What it means is you'll have the same (if not worse) level of WR and OL players, coupled with a weakened defense.  That doesn't sound like a recipe for success to me.  If all you want is to say "we finally got a franchise QB," then great.  If you want to win titles, it seems to make it a lot harder.
You draft capable replacements.



12/15/2014 7:11 PM
MikeT23
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Again, what else can you do?    Cut him loose, draft a QB and hope he isn't RGIII or Jake Locker?    Then find out 3 years later that he is?
12/15/2014 7:23 PM
moranis
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/15/2014 5:47:00 PM (view original):
Wanna name the 11 you'd take before him?

He doesn't turn the ball over and he extends plays with his legs.   That allows the D to not get stuck with a short field and provides his less than stellar corp of receivers to get open.   That's exactly what SEA needs him to do.

I'm not a big fan but I don't think there are 11 QB I'd take over him.

Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers are the obvious(and three of them won't be around that much longer).
I think Luck rounds out the top 5.

Then I think you've got a mixed bag of good/bad.  I'd have no problem putting Wilson in the front, or the back, of this group:  Kap, Eli, Romo, Rothlisberger, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, Smith, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco.    Truth is, he's probably somewhere in the middle.    And, if I had to win a close game, I'd take him over almost all of them.   Because he doesn't turn the ball over.
I think he is near the back of that group.  He is a game manager.  The lack of turnovers is great no doubt, but he doesn't have the arm to make all of the throws, he isn't great in the pocket, he is small, etc.  If I was losing by 6 with under 2 minutes and needed a TD to win, most of that group I'd want over Wilson and the statistics bear that out. 
12/16/2014 8:10 AM
moranis
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/15/2014 7:23:00 PM (view original):
Again, what else can you do?    Cut him loose, draft a QB and hope he isn't RGIII or Jake Locker?    Then find out 3 years later that he is?
well you could turn into Chicago.  Isn't that what they said about Cutler?
12/16/2014 8:10 AM
AlCheez
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Yeah, because that's a quality comparison right there.  Maybe take the next round (or 10) off.

I don't disagree with much of what's been said about Wilson's abilities, but Seattle is sitting in a situation where they've got a team in place they can and have won with.  They have a QB in place they can and have won with.  Their alternatives are either A) immediately blow that up by refusing to pay Wilson and going into the draft for a replacement or B) pay him and hope that that they can continue to keep a good enough team to win with him around him despite his added contract.

Out here in internet land, A is a fun option to talk about, but no GM in the world is going to do it.  And whether Wilson is truly elite or not, NFL QBs who are even average don't exactly grow on trees. 
12/16/2014 8:24 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by moranis on 12/16/2014 8:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/15/2014 5:47:00 PM (view original):
Wanna name the 11 you'd take before him?

He doesn't turn the ball over and he extends plays with his legs.   That allows the D to not get stuck with a short field and provides his less than stellar corp of receivers to get open.   That's exactly what SEA needs him to do.

I'm not a big fan but I don't think there are 11 QB I'd take over him.

Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers are the obvious(and three of them won't be around that much longer).
I think Luck rounds out the top 5.

Then I think you've got a mixed bag of good/bad.  I'd have no problem putting Wilson in the front, or the back, of this group:  Kap, Eli, Romo, Rothlisberger, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, Smith, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco.    Truth is, he's probably somewhere in the middle.    And, if I had to win a close game, I'd take him over almost all of them.   Because he doesn't turn the ball over.
I think he is near the back of that group.  He is a game manager.  The lack of turnovers is great no doubt, but he doesn't have the arm to make all of the throws, he isn't great in the pocket, he is small, etc.  If I was losing by 6 with under 2 minutes and needed a TD to win, most of that group I'd want over Wilson and the statistics bear that out. 
Well, I said a "close game" not a two minute drill.   Yeah, I want a big arm to move the ball down the field quickly.   But, for the other 58 minutes, I take Wilson over those other QB.   Because he doesn't turn the ball over.    They're more likely to need the TD with 2 minutes left because they threw a pick at minute 52 on their 23 yard line.
12/16/2014 8:59 AM
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