Playoffs, a season early Topic

moranis
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I wonder what team mike will have instead of Ohio State in his top 4 this week. 
11/17/2013 11:54 AM
MikeT23
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I begrudingly add OSU to the top 4.  I was all ready to mock them for giving up 35 to Illinois but Stanford lays an egg in the night game.   Glad I didn't have computer access to jump the gun.

Bama vs OSU
FSU vs Baylor

Oregon and Auburn, who I think will get trounced by Bama in two weeks, are on the outside looking in.   Both could move past #4 OSU by finishing strong. 

11/18/2013 8:26 AM
MikeT23
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From a SI article:

In terms of ranking teams, the best measure created so far is the S&P+ rating, developed by Bill Connelly for the Football Outsiders website, as well as for Connelly's own site, Football Study Hall. The S&P+ rating attempts to mathematically make sense of the the data from from every FBS game. It adjusts for varying offensive tempos by measuring the success (or lack thereof) of each play a team runs. It also adjusts for the quality of opponents in an attempt to account for teams' disparate schedules. It is the measure that, for example, told us last year that 8-5 Oklahoma State was much better than its record. The results this season -- the Cowboys are 9-1 -- suggest that was a correct assessment.

So what do the S&P+ ratings for 2013 look like? Here's the top 10.

1. Florida State
2. Baylor
3. Alabama
4. Wisconsin
5. Stanford
6. Oregon
7. Louisville
8. Ohio State
9. Clemson
10. Arizona State


LOL @ OSU.
 
11/20/2013 1:28 PM
moranis
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You are using a ranking system that has Wisconsin at #4 and putting merit in it.  Just think about that for a minute.  Virginia Tech who has been downright mediocre is ranked 12th, while 4-6 Utah is ranked 23rd.  Think about that for a minute.  Baylor is ranked 2nd and its only win against anyone in the top 30 of those rankings is 21st ranked 6-4 Kansas St. 

That said, it shows Ohio State to have the 4th best offense in the country behind FSU, Baylor, and A&M while OSU's defense is 31st.  A team like Louisville which has played no one at all has the 8th ranked defense.

11/20/2013 2:22 PM (edited)
MikeT23
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Just saying those guys put a lot more into figuring this stuff out than "Watch game in leather Buckeye helmet.  OSU good!"

I don't necessarily agree with it but there is some merit to their process.
11/20/2013 2:27 PM
stinenavy
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Are you putting merit into Wisconsin being 4th? Or Louisville at 7th? Or just Ohio St at 8th because it fits your agenda?
11/20/2013 2:47 PM
MikeT23
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I believe, on a neutral field, that OSU would be underdogs to Bama, FSU, Oregon, Stanford, Baylor.   I think they'd be pick 'ems with Auburn, Clemson, Mizzou, TAMU, SC and Mich St.

So, yeah, OSU at 8 sounds about right even if the 7 in front aren't quite right. 
11/20/2013 3:05 PM
MikeT23
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But, again, I said "merit to their process."   It's a lot more complicated than watching a game on Saturday with your buds and a case of beer.
11/20/2013 3:07 PM
ncmusician_7
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The S&P+ method is not a good way to rank teams (they are over thinking it).  Game results are what determines who is better than whom (not breaking down a bunch of plays within the game).
11/20/2013 11:23 PM
moranis
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Winston's DNA matches the sample from the alleged rape victim.  It would be interesting if Winston is charged prior to the final polls.
11/21/2013 6:45 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by ncmusician_7 on 11/20/2013 11:23:00 PM (view original):
The S&P+ method is not a good way to rank teams (they are over thinking it).  Game results are what determines who is better than whom (not breaking down a bunch of plays within the game).

Unfortunately, CFB is not like the NFL where there's a lot of parity.   Beating Iowa is not the same as beating LSU. 

11/21/2013 7:12 AM
moranis
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/21/2013 7:12:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 11/20/2013 11:23:00 PM (view original):
The S&P+ method is not a good way to rank teams (they are over thinking it).  Game results are what determines who is better than whom (not breaking down a bunch of plays within the game).

Unfortunately, CFB is not like the NFL where there's a lot of parity.   Beating Iowa is not the same as beating LSU. 

You don't need to pick two random games.  Ohio State beat Wisconsin.  Ohio State is unbeaten.  Wisconsin has 2 losses.  Are you honestly telling me that Wisconsin should be ranked higher than Ohio State?

Couple that with the fact that a 4 yard run on first down is considered an unsuccessful play in that system.  Given that I question the ratings whole methodology. 

11/21/2013 7:43 AM (edited)
MikeT23
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Pretty sure you'd question anything that doesn't have OSU in the top three.     I already said I don't necessarily agree with all of it but OSU at 8 seems about right to me.

From 3:05 yesterday:
"I believe, on a neutral field, that OSU would be underdogs to Bama, FSU, Oregon, Stanford, Baylor.   I think they'd be pick 'ems with Auburn, Clemson, Mizzou, TAMU, SC and Mich St.

So, yeah, OSU at 8 sounds about right even if the 7 in front aren't quite right."

 
11/21/2013 8:21 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by moranis on 11/21/2013 6:45:00 AM (view original):
Winston's DNA matches the sample from the alleged rape victim.  It would be interesting if Winston is charged prior to the final polls.
I don't think it makes any difference for OSU moving ahead of FSU.     But Winston's Heisman hopes might be trashed.    That said, DNA found in panties isn't always a sign of rape.  
11/21/2013 8:52 AM
moranis
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/21/2013 8:52:00 AM (view original):
Posted by moranis on 11/21/2013 6:45:00 AM (view original):
Winston's DNA matches the sample from the alleged rape victim.  It would be interesting if Winston is charged prior to the final polls.
I don't think it makes any difference for OSU moving ahead of FSU.     But Winston's Heisman hopes might be trashed.    That said, DNA found in panties isn't always a sign of rape.  
I think the voters might hurt FSU if they think Winston isn't going to be playing in the bowl game.  Wouldn't be surprised at all to vote them lower?  I can't think of a time where a football team lost a major player late in the year, but I know in basketball teams have been voted (and seeded) lower when they lose a starter late in the year.
11/21/2013 9:19 AM
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