Posted by MikeT23 on 11/11/2014 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Would Mizzou have the same record as Miss St or Bama?

I said they would with Bama.  Do you really not read anything?

I gloss over a lot of your BS.    Yes, 11-2 Mizzou would have every right to go in over 11-2 Bama if they just beat them on a neutral field for the confernce championship.   I'm all for "team in week 15 is not the same team as team in week 1" but team in week 15 is the team that will be playing in the bowl/playoff.   There isn't going to be that much difference between the two and, even if there were, they have no opportunity to prove it.

1	Mississippi State	9-0
2	Oregon	9-1
3	Florida State	9-0
4	TCU	8-1
5	Alabama	8-1
6	Arizona State	8-1
7	Baylor	8-1
8	Ohio State	8-1
9	Auburn	7-2
10	Ole Miss	8-2
11	UCLA	8-2
12	Michigan State	7-2
13	Kansas State	7-2
14	Arizona	7-2
15	Georgia	7-2
16	Nebraska	8-1
17	LSU	7-3
18	Notre Dame	7-2
19	Clemson	7-2
20	Wisconsin	7-2
21	Duke	8-1
22	Georgia Tech	8-2
23	Utah	6-3
24	Texas A&M	7-3
25	Minnesota	7-2

Looks to me that the committee is seeking  the easy way out.   Bama beats Miss St, Bama move into top 4.   Baylor has to jump ASU, Bama and TCU to get in.

Good to see FSU drop to 3.

Missouri isn't even in the top 25 right now.  They play Tennessee and Arkansas to close out the year and thus it is unlikely will even more into the top 25 (and certainly no higher than 20).  And you are telling me that if they beat Alabama to win the SEC they would get in ahead of Alabama.  That is just nonsense.  Same thing with Duke.  Duke isn't going from 20ish to 4 just by beating FSU.  Most likely scenario is no SEC or ACC team in that instance, but if there was going to be one it would be Alabama and FSU, not Missouri and Duke (that assumes that Miss. St. not only loses to Alabama but also Miss. to finish with 2 losses).

Ranked teams by Conference
7 - SEC
5 - Big Ten, Pac 12
4 - ACC
3 - Big 12
1 - Other (ND)

I'm tellying you they have a legit argument just as Duke would.   Now here's where I ask you "Do you retain anything?"  Because I posted this yesterday "FWIW, Duke beating FSU in the CC would give the committee a solid reason to leave the ACC out" and you just repeated it like you had some grand revelation.

Posted by moranis on 11/12/2014 9:01:00 AM (view original):
Ranked teams by Conference
7 - SEC
5 - Big Ten, Pac 12
4 - ACC
3 - Big 12
1 - Other (ND)

If you're not in the top 8, I don't think it matters. 

Edit:  With the exception of Nebraska.   A CC at 12-1 might change their fate.

Miss St:  11-1   Bama Loss, Vandy/Ole Miss Win
Oregon:  12-1 Colorado/Ore St/CC Win
FSU:  13-0  Miami/BC/FL/CC Win
TCU:  11-1  Kansas/TX/Iowa St Win
Bama:  12-1   Miss St/W Car/Auburn Win
ASU:   11-2  Ore St/Wash St/AZ win, CC loss
Baylor:  11-1  OK St/Tex Tech/KSU win
OSU:  12-1  Minn/Indiana/Mich/CC win

Baylor will win conference(although I wouldn't be surprised if they lose one of those because they just don't play D) and miss out.   OSU will win conference and miss out.

It would be interesting for the 4th spot if it was between 11-1 TCU, 11-1 Baylor, and 12-1 Ohio State.  Wouldn't envy the committee on that one.  Part of the TCU appeal is the "big" non-con win over Minnesota, who is currently 7-2 but plays Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to close the year and easily could end up at 7-5.  Would the committee really go with the 11-1 team that is not a conference champion, over the team that beat them to win their conference or the champion of a major conference who actually played a conference title game.  All of their schedules would end up fairly comparable (TCU is a good deal better now, but closes with a much weaker schedule than the other two). 

I think that would play in OSU's favor.   Assuming, of course, the committee does know what's being said in the media.   Baylor beat TCU head to head.   Taking TCU over Baylor has to be:  1. fluke comeback   2.  TCU is better now than they were in that game   3.  eyeball test.    It would be much easier to justify taking OSU as they were a pre-season favorite who had a QB learning on the job.   And it's obvious that they are a much better team now than in week 2.   Only one victory was under double digits.  Their biggest holdback would be the schedule.   MSU and the CC would be their only legit tests(but that doesn't seem to hold back FSU).  

Well it isn't like the Big 12 is loaded.  Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St. look like the only good teams (and KSU lost to the current 3rd place team in the SEC west).  I mean right now Texas is in 4th place.  You know the team that got crushed by BYU and lost to UCLA on a neutral field.  I think if you compared TCU (or Baylor) to OSU's schedule you will find they aren't that much different from top to bottom.  The best non-con game of any of those 3 teams is Minnesota (who could end up 7-5 pretty easily). 

That sort of got me thinking about things in a different way.   How much difference is there between OSU/MSU/Nebraska/WI/Minn and TCU/Baylor/KSU/WV/Tex(or whoever is 4/5 in the B12)?    Not much.   The top 3 are pretty comparable but I'd take the B12 if they played a round robin.   But, throw in 4/5, and I'm not sure B12 loses out.    So I broke down the top 10(plus 1 loss Duke/Nebraska) like this:   3 pts for a win over someone on the current top 25, 1 pt for a win against anyone else(I don't think beating Vandy is much different than beating some directional school from the MAC), -1 for a loss against a current top 25 and -3 for a loss against someone outside the top 25(what I consider an unacceptable loss).   Here's what I got:

Miss St - 15
Oregon -14
FSU/Bama - 13
Auburn - 11
TCU/ASU/Ole Miss -10
Baylor/OSU/Nebraska/Duke - 7

I really don't have much of a problem with that.   It would be reasonably fluid as we know some of those between 16-25 will drop out and others between 26-35 will move in.    

For instance, Minn will drop.  TAMU will likely lose to Mizzou or LSU and drop.   That will change the numbers of pretty much everyone but Oregon/FSU on the list.   WV might somehow work their way back into the top 25 if they beat KSU.

BTW, if Duke/FSU won out and Duke won the ACC, FSU would still have a 2 more points.