Posted by steelers821 on 11/17/2014 9:37:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/16/2014 10:50:00 AM (view original):
And it's TCU's fault.   Don't throw a stinker out against KU and maybe it's not even brought up.

Yes because Alabama didn't have any bad games and neither did miss st oh ya but there in the sec so it's ok. Tcu beat Oklahoma Minnesota west virginia yes they lost at Baylor where miss st lost at bama. They have very similar if not harder schedual then miss st and if things are that close it should come down to whose winning there conference

which isn't TCU or Mississippi St.  So it comes down to Baylor or Ohio St.

Neither of them have the resumes to be in the discussion and even without them winning there conference currently(Baylor will lose again) I still believe tcu has had the better year

Posted by moranis on 11/17/2014 8:34:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/16/2014 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Do you think coaches adjust game plans when the game is not in doubt?

If the answer is "yes", the stats become less relevant.

And, if you can connect the dots, you'll understand why Bama/Ole Miss and Bama/Miss St is different. 

Never in doubt doesn't mean 55-0 like you seem to be implying.  It was a 13 point game going to the 4th quarter and was a 6 point game midway through the 4th quarter.  Had MSU stopped Bama instead of allowing the TD, then the game very well might have been won by MSU.  That isn't the sort of game where you change your play calling and put it into coast. 

I certainly don't expect you to admit it but I felt Bama played a "softer" D and less aggressive O when they were up 12-0.   It wasn't "coast" but they were more content to let the clock run even if it meant giving up a 4 yard bubble pass.

1 Oregon
2 Alabama
3 Florida st
4 TCU
5 miss st
6 Baylor
7 Ohio st
8 ole miss
9 ucla
10 Michigan st

To be clear, I'd like TCU to be in.   I just don't think, in part because of the stinker against KU, that they have a strong enough case without a conference championship.   Miss St, despite non-con cupcakes, still played a SEC West schedule and, like it or not, it's still tougher than TCU, Baylor or Ohio St played.   In my mind, it could come down to the Egg Bowl.   A solid win there and they should be in.   I don't think I'd like to pick between TCU and conference winner Baylor as the 4.   With Nebraska's bad loss, OSU is hurt.   Now they should face Wisconsin and WI lost to LSU(who happened to lose to Miss St).

 

My four:
Bama, Oregon, FSU, Miss St

Outside looking in:
TCU, Baylor, OSU, KSU, MSU, GA, Ole Miss

Who do you you guys think is 1? If Florida st is 1st that would stink and it would show its better to play a cupcake schedule then play in one one the big 3 conferences

My four are in order.   I'd have Miss St over FSU had the Bama game been more competitive.  

TCU, Baylor and OSU are in the next group who need someone to stumble.
KSU, MSU, GA, Ole Miss need a lot of things to happen to get in.    

I'm not real sure how much more shuffling can go on.    If I'm saying "Bama and Oregon are the two best", and I am, I'm not sure how far I could drop them if they lost a conference championship game.   Could I really say "OK, FSU, Miss St, TCU, OSU" if they won out?  

Now, if Bama lost to Auburn and Miss St played in the CC, that's another story. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/17/2014 9:56:00 AM (view original):
To be clear, I'd like TCU to be in.   I just don't think, in part because of the stinker against KU, that they have a strong enough case without a conference championship.   Miss St, despite non-con cupcakes, still played a SEC West schedule and, like it or not, it's still tougher than TCU, Baylor or Ohio St played.   In my mind, it could come down to the Egg Bowl.   A solid win there and they should be in.   I don't think I'd like to pick between TCU and conference winner Baylor as the 4.   With Nebraska's bad loss, OSU is hurt.   Now they should face Wisconsin and WI lost to LSU(who happened to lose to Miss St).

 

SEC West is pretty solid no doubt, but Auburn just got spanked by Georgia (the same Georgia that got spanked recently by god awful Florida) and lost to A&M.  A&M just lost at home to Missouri (the same Missouri that lost to Indiana at home mind you).  LSU just gave Arkansas its first SEC win in years. 

The SEC West is good, but it isn't near the gauntlet it looked like it might have been earlier this year.  I don't think you can rely on that if you are MSU, especially when Vanderbilt and Kentucky are your two East teams and your non-con is pathetic.  Including Arkansas, MSU will have played 7 games against terrible competition.  3 games against good competition (Auburn, LSU, A&M). 1 game against great competition (Miss).  1 game against elite competition (the loss to Alabama).  If they win out, then you can certainly make a case for them, but if I'm the committee I think I'd rather go with OSU, Baylor, or TCU.  Teams that made more of an effort in the non-con and/or won their conference.

SEC West looks less daunting because they started beating up on one another.    I know GA and I think Mizzou were expected to be top 25 teams to start the season.   And, if you watched any Arkansas games, you know they were close to being able to compete.    Losses to them, TAMU, LSU aren't "bad" losses per se.

I firmly believe a good win against Ole Miss could put them in the playoff.   I'd much rather see a TCU/Oregon match-up in the playoff(with Bama/FSU) but TCU's best win will be KSU and, if KSU loses to Baylor, they won't win their conference.

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/17/2014 12:48:00 PM (view original):
SEC West looks less daunting because they started beating up on one another.    I know GA and I think Mizzou were expected to be top 25 teams to start the season.   And, if you watched any Arkansas games, you know they were close to being able to compete.    Losses to them, TAMU, LSU aren't "bad" losses per se.

I firmly believe a good win against Ole Miss could put them in the playoff.   I'd much rather see a TCU/Oregon match-up in the playoff(with Bama/FSU) but TCU's best win will be KSU and, if KSU loses to Baylor, they won't win their conference.

which is why I think it will be Ohio State

Assuming no upsets of the top 7 teams down the stretch, this is what I think happens

1. Alabama v. 4. Ohio St.
2. Oregon v. 3. FSU

TCU, Miss. St., and Baylor all on the outside looking in and all with at least an argument, but at the end of the day I think Ohio State gets the nod as a 12-1 conference champion, with an early season loss under extenuating circumstances (i.e. losing your Heisman contending QB a week before the season started with a very very young offense that needed said QB to weather the early mistakes of the very very young offense).

That said I would not be surprised if Oregon lost in the Pac 12 title game (or to OSU for that matter), if Bama tripped up against Auburn, if FSU stumbled (I mean couldn't you just see the Florida kids playing up one last game for their coach in his last game), if MSU lost to its rival, or if Baylor tripped up against KSU.  I don't realistically think TCU or OSU loses, but I didn't think TCU would barely beat Kansas either, so anything can happen.

I think your argument is a little suspect but I'd have no problem including OSU if they were amongst the 4 best.    I argued that an early season loss shouldn't be a death sentence because teams are still figuring out who they are.   IIRC, you and stine were having none of that.   Barrett is maturing into a very good QB.   The problem OSU has is a weak schedule.   MSU and, presumably, WI will both be lower in the rankings than 3-4 SEC West teams.    It's just not a good look.

stine and I both said South Carolina with 2 losses would not make the playoffs, not the same thing as an early season loss eliminating a team.  In fact, I'm pretty sure you said Ohio State as well as all Big Ten teams were eliminated with a loss.

Michigan St. is ranked 10th in the AP poll.  Only Bama, Miss St., and Ole Miss are ahead of it from the SEC West.  I would imagine Ole Miss drops behind Mich St. if Miss. St. beats it, which means Ohio State's victory over Michigan State would be a better victory than any victory Mississippi State has.  Assuming Wisconsin wins its last two it will be a top 15 team and possibly all the way up to top 10 when it plays Ohio State for the Big Ten title. Even a loss there and it probably stays around the top 15.  Depending on where Ole Miss ends up, Wisconsin might in fact be a higher ranked team.  I know Wiscy lost its opener to LSU on a neutral site, but it was a pretty damn close game and Wiscy inexplicably decided to stop handing the ball off to Gordon after getting out to a decent lead early in the game.  Not the same team now.