Posted by jiml60 on 9/28/2012 5:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jclarkbaker on 9/28/2012 3:26:00 PM (view original):The master is back to teach us minions a lesson in polls and statistics now; first cabin pressurization and now this, one can only wonder what other nuggets of wisdom he has in store for us.
Posted by jiml60 on 9/27/2012 10:46:00 PM (view original):You know why this is complete BS? Because there is a 0% chance he will beat his 2008 popular vote margin. Whoever wrote this is a ******* moron.
More from today's 538 blog:
Still, this Electoral College discussion is going to be academic unless Mr. Romney can reverse his poor run of polling. We’ll conclude with a scary thought for Republicans.
Right now, the Nov. 6 forecast projects that Mr. Obama will win the popular vote by 3.6 percentage points. As I mentioned, that does account for about a two-point decline from where Mr. Obama seems to be in the polls right now. Otherwise, however, the model assumes that the uncertainty in the forecast is symmetric: Mr. Obama is as likely to overperform it as underperform it.
If Mr. Obama misses to the downside by 3.7 percentage points, then Mr. Romney would win, at least in the popular vote. However, if Mr. Obama missed to the upside by 3.7 percentage point instead, he’d win the popular vote by 7.3 percentage points, exactly replicating his margin from 2008.
In other words, there looks to be about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Romney will win, but also about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Obama will actually beat his 2008 margin in the popular vote. The smart money is on an outcome somewhere in the middle – as it has been all year. But if you can conceive of a Romney comeback – and you should account for that possibility – you should also allow for the chance that things could get really out of hand, and that Mr. Obama could win in a borderline landslide.
Yes, and this is how it is done:
Name one group in which Obama will increase his votes from 2008? There is perhaps one: single females. But I doubt it. White males? Hell no. Married women? No. African Americans? No. Veterans/military? Hell no. Catholics? Hell no. Jews? Hell no. College students? Hell no.
He is down in each and every category from last time. Which is why all this talk of the election being over is a joke.