I've been here nearly three years and seen this topic discussed countless times. You haven't been here for three years and haven't seen this topic discussed countless times. I don't really care what you end up believing, but I'll at least offer you the truth of how the game works...
As I stated in my first post, suppressed singles become outs. They are the only batting average modifier. All other suppressed hits become a lesser hit. HRs will become either a 3b,2b, or 1b. Ballpark factor is taken into account as I recall. I don't know if the hit ratios assigned represent a normal distribution or if a heavy percentage of HRs become doubles. Before the '07 update, all suppressed hits became singles only, so the xbh's are an improvement in most peoples opinion.
As for the performance histories, it looks like you ran into our old friend Normalization. Babe Ruth hit HRs when no one else was. That can't be said of his doubles. If you can't take my word on all this and need evidence, I'd recommend you look at performance histories from a relatively neutral normalization era.
6/22/2010 7:00 AM (edited)