Your mileage may vary Topic

crazystengel
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A couple of examples of how big a factor chance can play in the sim, from a league that just finished its regular season (jfranco77's 120M box score theme).

Both Gehrigs played in the same division and in the same park -- Yankee Stadium (I).

1927 Lou Gehrig  .272/.368/.573/.941

1927 Lou Gehrig  .346/.443/.690/1.133

Both Collinses were also in the same division, but the worse one was in the more offensive park -- Shibe vs. Yankee Stadium (I).

1913 Eddie Collins  .269/.362/.330/.692

1913 Eddie Collins  .331/.405/.429/.834
4/8/2011 10:14 AM
contrarian23
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Cripes, crazystengel, did you forget the Gehrig cheat code again?
4/8/2011 10:48 AM
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Bootone
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Great post.
4/8/2011 1:05 PM
AKlopp
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Is this a carrot on a stick to draw the "random bump up or down" conspiracy theorists out of hiding?

4/8/2011 1:33 PM
zubinsum
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Here is a chart showing the 95% limits of a batting average by at bats.  To read the chart, find expected BA* on the leftside of the chart; scan the top for the number of AB (not PA!)  the player has had.  The number read will indicate the limit of a one-sided 95% probability distribution.  In general, randomness accounts for more variation than most people expect.

For example if you expect a player to bat .320 over 600AB, there is a 95% chance they will bat from .282 (.320-.038) to .358 (.320 +.038).

*Check performance histories for expected BA, or use the following approximation:
     For a switch hitter   exBA~=avg#
     For a righty               exBA~=avg#-0.020


4/8/2011 3:30 PM
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zubinsum
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Posted by crazystengel on 4/9/2011 11:52:00 AM (view original):

I completely agree that "randomness accounts for more variation than most people expect."  That's why the conspiracy theorists AKlopp mentioned can be frustrating to deal with.  They're convinced someone at WIS is rigging things so that some players are "poisoned" and others are getting a "bump" -- and nothing you say can change their minds.  

Yeah, but it goes beyonf that.  People see patterns in small sample sizes and conclude that  AAA quality is being tampered or their team is better (or worse) than others based on the post-season or TOC.
4/9/2011 12:58 PM
mixtroy
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Question for you Crazy.  How many times in the entire history of baseball has a team came back from an 0-3 deficit in a 7 game playoff series and swept the next four? Now compare that to the number of times it happens here.  I am not saying the game is in fact rigged, but the frequency in which it happens in the sim is pretty scary.
4/9/2011 1:20 PM
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boogerlips
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ML teams don't have Milacki and Gates Brown hiding on their bench just in case their team goes down 3-0.
4/9/2011 4:21 PM
AKlopp
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The whole random variation thing is misunderstood in real baseball as well. Anyone with an interest in baseball and statistics (i.e., most of you who are reading this) should check out fangraphs.com if you haven't already. An especially fun thing to do is to compare players' careers using the WAR Graphs feature...
4/9/2011 6:09 PM
mixtroy
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Well despite just last week being lucky enough to come back from 0-3 in the WS (I didn't have Milacki hiding on my bench, although I wished I did), I'm surprised to hear that it only happens about 3% of the time on WIS.  I guess that figure is probably about right when considering the vast number of seasons that are played here.  Thanks for the insight.

4/9/2011 9:27 PM
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