Is 75 PA enough to judge a batter on?
Ha ha, 'tis a foolish question, to be sure. But the question did come up in an OL I'm in, concerning an AAA player I acquired in a trade (more on that "controversial" deal here: whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx
The AAA batter was RL OF 1904 Mike Donlin, with RL numbers of .356/.406/.475, D-/C defense, 278 PA. The trade was voted against by 3 owners. When my new acquisition got off to an insanely hot start, the whining rose to a terrible crescendo. Here were the rookie's stats after 75 PA:
32/66, 0 Doubles, 4 Triples, 1 Home Run, 8 Walks, 1 HBP for a line of .485/.547/.652
I was told I had ripped off a newbie owner, thrown the balance of the league out of whack, sinned against God and Nature, etc. I tried to explain that 75 PA was not a statistically significant sample size. I pointed out that the rook had just gone 7-for-7 in a game against a 0% scrub. It mattered not a whit. I was informed that, "75 PA is enough to judge a batter on,
especially a rookie." (The "especially a rookie" part did give me a chuckle; I still don't know what that could possibly mean.)
Anyway, after some silly bickering (and I'll accept a portion of the blame there), I eventually gave up on reading the message forum in that league. There was no way I was going to get through to anyone.
And now? The season is over (well, 160 games of it), and so we have a larger sample size at our disposal. What has the rookie done since his first 75 PA? Have a look:
63/218, 7 Doubles, 4 Triples, 1 Home Run, 9 Walks, 1 HBP for a line of .289/.320/.372
The rookie's overall line is still pretty good (.335/.376/.437), but a far cry from the stats he put up his first 75 PA.
With 2 games remaining, he's the ROY leader.
And the crappy player he was traded for? He's #3 in ROY voting.
Believe It or Don't!
10/10/2012 1:53 AM (edited)