two of my conf mates were in a battle for a player, that just finished. they posted their effort on the CC so i feel its ok to repost it here -
a- school, 37 campus, 10 home, 10 evals, start, 20 mins
b school, 43 campus, 21 home, 1 eval, start, 15 mins, some letters (im guessing about 1-1.5k worth, he said he maxed it out)
the b school also appears to have had some considering credit advantage.
in this case, the b school won, at the 11am cycle the day after signings (read: kind of close, but not very close)
the prestige advantage of an a- vs b school could theoretically be as small as .34, and as high as 1. looking at their history, both schools appear to be on the low end - if they were equally low, that would be a .66, which is the expected different of an a- and b school.
with a .66 advantage, the effective credit by the a- school in b school terms would be:
61.6 campus, 16.7 home, 16.7 scouting, 1.67* start, 1.67*20 mins vs
43 campus, 21 home, 1 eval, start, 15 mins, some letters, some considering credit
seems to me like a big win for the first school, no doubt about it, in the average case.
going with a pretty conservative value of .5, the a- school in terms of the b school would be:
55.5 campus, 15 home, 15 scouting, 1.5 * start, 1.5* 20 mins vs
43 campus, 21 home, 1 eval, start, 15 mins, some letters, some considering credit
i would pretty strongly expect the a- school to win in that case as well, and if the b school did win, i very much doubt it would have been by enough to sign the player at 11am. and based on the resume of the B school, i am very reluctant to believe this is a minimum case of a .333 difference, i think .5 is a pretty reasonable figure, significantly lower than the average case.
using a prestige value of .5, in the average case of a .666 prestige difference, using a geometric progression, we get an advantage of 31%. so that translates to:
48.5 campus, 13.1 home, 13.1 scouting, 1.3 * start, 1.3 * 20 mins vs
43 campus, 21 home, 1 eval, start, 15 mins, some letters, some considering credit
in this case, i feel like its pretty close to a wash. at 2:1 hv:cv, the a- school has roughly 3 more home visits, 12 evals, .3 starts, a bit on minutes, vs considering credit and some letters. considering credit could be as high as 10%, which would be like 10 home visits for the b school, which would probably put them ahead slightly. but, i feel like that is probably liberal - in favor of the b school. probably, the a- school would win. so i feel like even the 1.5x prestige multiplier puts the a- school ahead here, in the average case.
now if you go with that same, lower end .5 prestige grades figure, thats a 25% advantage. which is,
46 campus visits, 12.5 home, 12.5 eval, 1.25* start, 1.25 * 20 mins vs
43 campus, 21 home, 1 eval, start, 15 mins, some letters, some considering credit
now, finally, this seems to line up. the schools are roughly tied on campus/home/evals. considering credit at 10% would probably be enough to overcome the slight mins/start advantages and could justify the 11am day after signings signing. still, it seems like the maybe 10 home visits ahead this leaves the B school is only questionably enough to cause a signing at 11am, but i suppose its pretty close. but anyway, what i am getting at is, even using the conservative .5 prestige grades figure, it *still* seems like 1.5x prestige over states the prestige advantage slightly. so maybe it was only .45 prestige grades or something. but, 2x really doesn't seem to fit to me. anybody see anything i missed/messed up?