Posted by tarvolon on 3/15/2013 6:50:00 PM (view original):
At the beginning of the season, it does a great job determining point spreads based on rosters. But if you win a few close games and another team loses a few close games to comparable teams, you can suddenly end up as a 15-20 point favorite over a team just as good as you are.
I've lost as a 30-point favorite before, but that's the worst it's been. Not sure if my game-plan was bad. It was the first pressing team I'd played all season, and I had a 28 average passing rating. Could get around it against man and zone teams, but it killed me against the press.
Absolutely. A couple of seasons ago, I was a 1 seed, ranked number 1 and playing a 9 seed in the NT title game. I was a 3 point dog (as the 1 seed, mind you). How can a 1 seed, ranked number 1, be an underdog to a 9 seed (for what it's worth, the 1 seed beat the 9 seed by 26 points)? The spreads are a joke.
I once lost a game to a Sim team when I was a 62 point favorite (I'm sure Pinkeye will make an appearance here at some point. Every time I mention that game he shows up and trolls the rest of the thread. It's almost like he's got some kind of alarm set whenever I mention that game). I also finished the season 33-2 and won the National Championship. I'm halfway decent as a coach and a game planner I think, but you really can't gameplan for a mid-teens Per PF to hit 4 threes against you, or a single digit Per C to hit 2 more in the same game. I don't think I gameplanned badly, nor do I think I had a bad lineup in place. Sometimes those things just happen (not often, thank goodness, or I think everyone would quit if the game ended up being THAT random) and I think it's a little rude to call the OP out on his decisions without looking at his game first (not you Tarvolon).
As I posted earlier, the spreads are a joke, always have been, always will be. The best thing to do is pay them no mind as they are absolutely worthless.