Posted by ike1024 on 3/30/2013 1:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Iguana1 on 3/30/2013 12:38:00 PM (view original):
I did see that Flip Saunders may be a leading candidate for the Gophers job.

Not sure he'd be interested but he is an alum, plus has 10+ years in the Twin Cities coaching Garnett and the T-Wolves.

I wouldn't be surprised based on the rumblings I've heard.

That would be an interesting hire, he was a pretty sh*tty NBA coach (coming from a Pistons fan). I think he'd do a solid job (not as good as Tubby would be doing), b/c I think he'd land at least one of these elite in-state guys (he could sell that he could prepare them for the NBA), and then ride that to a few NT seasons, and some success.

Posted by ike1024 on 3/30/2013 1:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by girt25 on 3/30/2013 11:52:00 AM (view original):
Yep, I think that's the proper perspective, 2 bounce.

Granted, some of the criticisms re: Tubby's shortcomings are probably warranted, if perhaps sometimes a bit overstated. But the reality is that we're talking about a fairly crappy BCS program with crappy facilities and a recent history of scandal. It's not an attractive job ... to paraphrase: Shaka Smart is not walking through that door. Brad Stephens is not walking through that door.

Again, I think the odds are fairly overwhelming that the program regresses under the next coach and some or all of the progress made under Tubby is lost.

They aren't going to UCLA, either. Those guys clearly either have destination jobs or are really content where they are. I don't think that's an indictment of Minnesota's current situation. A good coach wouldn't have a terribly difficult time turning the current program (granted, Tubby got them to this point) into a consistent middle-of-the-pack Big Ten, perennial tournament team.

It's not necessarily an indictment of their current situation ... but it is an indication that the folks running their show there are semi-delusional, and think they can attract a caliber of coach that they literally have zero shot at.

Posted by ike1024 on 3/30/2013 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by 2bounce on 3/30/2013 10:24:00 AM (view original):
I have always liked Tubby.  I think he was too old fashioned for UK, and just not a good fit.  There are a number of programs where he is a good fit, and one of them was Minnesota.  He took over a team with a 9-22 record, and 1 20-win season and 1 NCAA berth in the previous 8 years since the academic fraud.  In fact, in it's greed to get to the top, the program was rocked with scandals in the 70's and 90's.  They were on probation 8 of the 22 seasons during that stretch and 8 of the previous 30 when Tubby got there.  What did he do: A 20-win first season; 5 20-win seasons in the 6 he was there; and 3 NCAA appearences in his 6 seasons.  Compared to the crappy program he took over, he did an outstanding job.  But that wasn't good enogh, and Minnesota still hasn't learned it's leasons about being patient and building a program the right way.  Who would want to coach there?

A lot of people, I think.

It's a great spot for a good coach. A huge campus with a fan base that wants to be loyal. No competition for in-state recruits, of which there are usually 2-4 top-100 guys. The Barn is a really fun place as a home court when the Gophers are good. 

Minnesota has three top-50 guys in the class of 2014. None of them seemingly had any interest in Minnesota with Tubby as coach. If they can get someone in who can convince even one of those guys to stay, it would be a nice reward for the program. 

If by "no competition", you mean no in state competition, then sure. But there's plenty of local competition that's been taking talent from the state. And the Barn may be "fun" in an old school way, the facilities are terrible, not at all BCS quality.

Posted by ike1024 on 3/30/2013 1:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Iguana1 on 3/30/2013 12:38:00 PM (view original):
I did see that Flip Saunders may be a leading candidate for the Gophers job.

Not sure he'd be interested but he is an alum, plus has 10+ years in the Twin Cities coaching Garnett and the T-Wolves.

I wouldn't be surprised based on the rumblings I've heard.

Guess not -- he already turned them down.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9115329/flip-saunders-turns-minnesota-golden-gophers-job-source-says

Yeah I think the Gophers should check into that Dan Monson guy... hes been having some sucsess at Long Beach State.

EDIT: Rumor is the U wanted to pick his staff and he said thanks but no thanks.

Posted by girt25 on 3/30/2013 4:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ike1024 on 3/30/2013 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by 2bounce on 3/30/2013 10:24:00 AM (view original):
I have always liked Tubby.  I think he was too old fashioned for UK, and just not a good fit.  There are a number of programs where he is a good fit, and one of them was Minnesota.  He took over a team with a 9-22 record, and 1 20-win season and 1 NCAA berth in the previous 8 years since the academic fraud.  In fact, in it's greed to get to the top, the program was rocked with scandals in the 70's and 90's.  They were on probation 8 of the 22 seasons during that stretch and 8 of the previous 30 when Tubby got there.  What did he do: A 20-win first season; 5 20-win seasons in the 6 he was there; and 3 NCAA appearences in his 6 seasons.  Compared to the crappy program he took over, he did an outstanding job.  But that wasn't good enogh, and Minnesota still hasn't learned it's leasons about being patient and building a program the right way.  Who would want to coach there?

A lot of people, I think.

It's a great spot for a good coach. A huge campus with a fan base that wants to be loyal. No competition for in-state recruits, of which there are usually 2-4 top-100 guys. The Barn is a really fun place as a home court when the Gophers are good. 

Minnesota has three top-50 guys in the class of 2014. None of them seemingly had any interest in Minnesota with Tubby as coach. If they can get someone in who can convince even one of those guys to stay, it would be a nice reward for the program. 

If by "no competition", you mean no in state competition, then sure. But there's plenty of local competition that's been taking talent from the state. And the Barn may be "fun" in an old school way, the facilities are terrible, not at all BCS quality.

Who is their competition? Iowa State is the only school within 300 miles. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Iowa State aren't taking guys like Tyrus Jones. If the Gophers can find a competent recruiter capable of keeping the good in-state athletes, their closest competition will come from Michigan State, or maybe Marquette, if the Golden Eagles keep getting better. In any event, the point is that all of these in-state guys grow up with Minnesota as their favorite team, and it probably wouldn't take too much to keep them here if they start getting better.

I agree about the facilities in general, but I've heard that a lot of these guys enjoy playing home games at the Barn.

Badgers, Iowa State, etc are not taking guys like Jones. But don't kid yourself, it would be very difficult for the Gophers to hire anyone who would give them a legitimate chance at a guy like that. That is a Duke/Kentucky/Kansas kind of kid and they rarely stay home at significantly lesser programs. But the next echelon of recruits -- legit, high DI guys -- certainly have been and will be picked over by the Badgers, Marquette, Iowa State and others.

Posted by ike1024 on 3/31/2013 7:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by girt25 on 3/30/2013 4:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ike1024 on 3/30/2013 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by 2bounce on 3/30/2013 10:24:00 AM (view original):
I have always liked Tubby.  I think he was too old fashioned for UK, and just not a good fit.  There are a number of programs where he is a good fit, and one of them was Minnesota.  He took over a team with a 9-22 record, and 1 20-win season and 1 NCAA berth in the previous 8 years since the academic fraud.  In fact, in it's greed to get to the top, the program was rocked with scandals in the 70's and 90's.  They were on probation 8 of the 22 seasons during that stretch and 8 of the previous 30 when Tubby got there.  What did he do: A 20-win first season; 5 20-win seasons in the 6 he was there; and 3 NCAA appearences in his 6 seasons.  Compared to the crappy program he took over, he did an outstanding job.  But that wasn't good enogh, and Minnesota still hasn't learned it's leasons about being patient and building a program the right way.  Who would want to coach there?

A lot of people, I think.

It's a great spot for a good coach. A huge campus with a fan base that wants to be loyal. No competition for in-state recruits, of which there are usually 2-4 top-100 guys. The Barn is a really fun place as a home court when the Gophers are good. 

Minnesota has three top-50 guys in the class of 2014. None of them seemingly had any interest in Minnesota with Tubby as coach. If they can get someone in who can convince even one of those guys to stay, it would be a nice reward for the program. 

If by "no competition", you mean no in state competition, then sure. But there's plenty of local competition that's been taking talent from the state. And the Barn may be "fun" in an old school way, the facilities are terrible, not at all BCS quality.

Who is their competition? Iowa State is the only school within 300 miles. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Iowa State aren't taking guys like Tyrus Jones. If the Gophers can find a competent recruiter capable of keeping the good in-state athletes, their closest competition will come from Michigan State, or maybe Marquette, if the Golden Eagles keep getting better. In any event, the point is that all of these in-state guys grow up with Minnesota as their favorite team, and it probably wouldn't take too much to keep them here if they start getting better.

I agree about the facilities in general, but I've heard that a lot of these guys enjoy playing home games at the Barn.

if real life had the same penalties for recruiting at distance as HD has, then i'd be with you, but those top players are clearly going to get recruited from schools all over - not much competition within 300 miles means little.

i think your point is a valid one in general, but with the top 50 type guys, that advantage means much less. these are guys playing for the best shot to make the NBA, and are likely to go elsewhere. but MN puts out a bunch of pretty talented players too, guys below the NBA level, who are still good d1 players - and MN should have the advantage of not much local competition. plus, id think that with the right coach - every once in a while, they should be able to land one of those top notch guys - but for every 1 they get, there are going to be 10 they dont (from that area)

i do think its fair to indict tubby for not even getting the gophers on the list of any of those 3 top 50 guys, though. he should be taking a shot. can't blame him if he misses, thats unrealistic, but you have to take a shot!

Texas Tech has agreed to terms to hire Tubby Smith

I'm not arguing that Tubby should have been keeping every top-50 guy. But Wisconsin and Marquette manage to keep the occasional top-50 guy. No reason Minnesota can't do the same. Tubby can't keep anyone. 

And even on those second-tier guys, Minnesota should have a distinct advantage. While I agree that this isn't HD and there is no distance advantage, this isn't HD, and hometown favorites actually do matter to some extent. Minnesota has done nothing to take advantage of that.

Actually, the really top local guys by and large have not come to Madison. Last year Tokoto went to UNC, even going back to Jerry Smith going to Louisville, Korie Lucious to MSU. Dekker was the only recent top 50 guy they got. And Wisconsin is a much, much better program than Minnesota.

The top MN kids from MN since '07 have been Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Rodney Williams (MN) and Royce White (MN). The Badgers have gotten some nice but not elite recruits from there during the period as well (Bergren, Jordan Taylor, Leuer), and the Gophers also kept Mbakwe during that time.

The reality is that it's terribly difficult to beat an elite program for a top 50 type of recruit. I just don't think you're painting a realistic portrayal there, nor is it a very fair criticism (or a criticism that is really even really one of the main criticisms being levied by Gophers fans who support the firing).

Posted by girt25 on 4/1/2013 10:06:00 PM (view original):
Actually, the really top local guys by and large have not come to Madison. Last year Tokoto went to UNC, even going back to Jerry Smith going to Louisville, Korie Lucious to MSU. Dekker was the only recent top 50 guy they got. And Wisconsin is a much, much better program than Minnesota.

The top MN kids from MN since '07 have been Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Rodney Williams (MN) and Royce White (MN). The Badgers have gotten some nice but not elite recruits from there during the period as well (Bergren, Jordan Taylor, Leuer), and the Gophers also kept Mbakwe during that time.

The reality is that it's terribly difficult to beat an elite program for a top 50 type of recruit. I just don't think you're painting a realistic portrayal there, nor is it a very fair criticism (or a criticism that is really even really one of the main criticisms being levied by Gophers fans who support the firing).

So you proved my point? Some, not all, top-50 guys stay in state. Dekker last year and Marquette is getting two this year. 

No, the Gophers didn't keep Mbakwe. He went to Marquette, tore his ACL, committed some crimes in Miami, and came back to Minnesota. But that wasn't really on Tubby.

Not being able to keep elite or second-tier recruits in state is absolutely a criticism levied against Tubby. Of course it's not the only one. In-game coaching, player development, and pretty much everything basketball-related is on that last.

And for what it's worth, even though this is playing in to your consistent mischaracterization of my argument, you're just plain wrong about it being "terribly difficult" to beat elite programs for top-50 recruits, unless we have different definitions of "elite."

From the upcoming class:

LSU signed #10 (ESPN rankings) - from LA
Arkansas signed #13 - from AR
Memphis signed #15 - from TN
Cal signed #19 - from CA
Washington signed #20 - from OR
Notre Dame signed #21 - from IN
NCSU signed #22 - from VA
Cincinnati signed #25 - from NY
Marquette signed #26 - from TN
UTEP signed #29 - from CA
BYU signed #30 - from UT
Memphis signed #31 - from CT
Memphis signed #33 - from TN
West Virginia signed #37 - from OH
South Carolina signd #39 - from SC
FSU signed #40 - from Canada
BYU signed #45 - from UT
Arkansas signed #46 - from MS
Marquette signed #49 - from WI

We can quibble over the eliteness of a couple of those teams, but many are unquestionably not elite and have little recent history of any real, sustained success. The vast majority of those recruits are staying in their home state. Why? Because for all of eternity, home teams have an advantage with most kids. Obviously that doesn't mean something to every kid wants to stay in state, or will give much weight to that, but many do.

i pretty much agree with you ike. in my disagreement, i was disagreeing for top notch kids. top 50 or so, i dont really think you get much advantage, but in the 50-150 or 250 range, where there are still a bunch of talented kids, i do think you have an advantage. tubby at kentucky was known for liking project players, it drove us mad to no end, i really cant fault minnesota. he didnt try hard for top local talent like he should have - its one thing to try and miss - its another not to try - its the not trying that is unacceptable, and im with gopher fans on this 100%, it didnt seem like the effort is there.

girt, do you watch tubby much? admittedly, i havent watched many gopher games, catching maybe only a half dozen over his gopher career. sometimes, his teams looked ok, but i caught a couple games in the last couple seasons, and just saw WAY too much of what made me want tubby out as coach about 4-6 seasons into his UK career - what ill call the "stand around and pass uselessly" offense. there is nothing more infuriating, than watching 5 talented, athletic guys (not athletic for the NCAA maybe, but these guys are all athletes, all in good shape) just stand there. not like they have been playing their ***** off and are tired as hell standing there - but like, lets just sit here on our ***** lazily and hope someone else bails us out, standing there.

seems like in some games a full half of his offensive possessions, and i know i said it already, but they just consist of no movement, finally a guard runs over slowly on the perimeter so the other dude doesnt get a 5 second call, and gets a pass - which in no way advances the offense. after about 30 seconds, someone might try to drive, sometimes not, and eventually a lackluster well defended 3 point shot goes off at the buzzer. if you dont know what i mean, i dont think youve watched him enough... it was way too common to be ignored.

i couldnt stand it at UK, if you play more than 2 games a year like that, you deserve the axe - and i just cant see it any other way. its like watching a game for retirees at the local community center... the last two gopher games i saw were of that mold, its a tiny sample size and they won some games so it cant ALL be like that. but how the hell you stand on the sideline quietly when your players are running an offense like that, its beyond me. it defies reason. MOVE. i honestly wouldnt care if my team got worse, id rather watch a team who lost fighting hard to win, than tubbys "stand around passing uselessly" offense, win or lose. its not even close. not even close... i respect tubby, and MN wont get as well respected coach, theres no chance - but i still totally support the firing. i agree that win or go home is unreasonable for that school - but fight or go home totally applies.

Sure, and that's where I think my argument has been mischaracterized. I don't think it's a win-or-go-home situation. But consistently finishing in the bottom four of what was until very recently a down Big Ten isn't doing much for me. Even this year, a year in which they were in the top ten at one point, they finished NINTH!

Wisconsin was coming off a final four, I guess, but it really wasn't a consistently better program pre-Bo Ryan than Minnesota is now. Marquette wasn't that way pre-Tom Crean. Iowa State pre-Fred Hoiberg. But all those teams are (or will be) consistently better after six seasons with those coaches than Minnesota with Tubby. Lists like that go on and on.  There isn't a huge historical difference in those programs. The Gophers can do better than bottom half of the Big Ten every year.

i agree. if you look at tubby on paper, knowing he is a class act and coaches with integrity, i can see drawing the conclusion that the gophers (and the wildcats) were crazy not for wanting him. but if you actually watch him, it paints a much different picture,

that said, i thought MN was smart to hire him, and I think texas tech is smart to hire him, too.