Posted by terps21234 on 7/30/2013 9:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by gillispie1 on 7/30/2013 12:54:00 PM (view original):TY gillispie1, Yes I know I shouldn't have won 99% of the time. I thought that my offensive was a liability. With his low guards def. ratings, if I had a good 3pt shooter and better rebounding I would of won? Plus he had a 10 point SCP advantage. I know my team ain't that good, but just trying to understand this game. Thanks as usual for the helpful advise
Posted by terps21234 on 7/28/2013 11:52:00 AM (view original):even when you are the best team in the country, you can lose to teams that arent that good - its just not that common. in this case, your team was certainly favored, but its not like you should have won 99% of the time or anything even close. both teams were pretty weak offensively and rebounding wise. their team was way worse than yours defensively but your team is not awesome defensively either, and while clearly better, you just dont have the raw offensive talent to consistently make a really bad defense suffer. its just an 80% sim that hit the 20%, type of thing. you are going to lose pretty many games like that over the years! 1 for every 5 you play... and very easily might not have been as big of a favorite as 80%, just throwing that out there, its probably actually closer than that.
Allright, All the talk about zone and the averages in def ratings. How do I lose to Cowan whose def. ratings are horrible. ( No offense to Cowan coach) He plays a 3-2 and per def. ratings are low. I took advantage and gave my per players the most distro. If all the talk is true than how did I lose.
if you had a good 3pt shooter and better rebounding, would you have won? i wouldnt think about it like that. the best team doesnt always win, it doesnt matter how much better you are. keep in mind with only like 50 shots per side, theres still a LOT of randomness in the results. what you want to look for is success across a season or across a number of seasons, as a way to determine the success of an approach. ive lost the 1v64 matchup before in the NT and it certainly wasnt my team or the way i coached that team. it was simply hitting that 1% on a 99% chance to win, just like sometimes at the casino, a guy will hit on roulette picking a single number, even though its a 1/38 chance or whatever.
anyway, if you had those things, you definitely would have been more likely to win. having a strong 3 point shooter is about the best single player you can have on most teams, especially in the lower divisions. if you added one really strong 3 point shooter to your team, and played your current team, the team with the shooter could win as much as 4 out of 5 of those games. its that important! if you aren't familiar with team planning or my comments on the marginal value of offensive and defensive and other abilities, id read up on that, i think i covered it decently in the interview i did (as coach_billyg).