NCAA Tourney: Kentucky or The Field? Topic

bobmeyer
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Remember, in brianxavier's neck of the woods, Xavier is Big Blue, and Kentucky is Little Blue! :)
3/2/2015 3:21 PM
gillispie1
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Posted by bobmeyer on 3/2/2015 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Remember, in brianxavier's neck of the woods, Xavier is Big Blue, and Kentucky is Little Blue! :)
living in that neck of the woods, this is not even remotely close to true!

i would take kentucky in a bet, but only because i couldn't bet against them. definitely would question a better taking kentucky over the field at fair odds. although actually going off dave's numbers, i actually think the tough games, they can make those odds. its the discipline in the games they need to be pushing in the 90%s to win that i would question.
3/2/2015 8:08 PM (edited)
the0nlyis
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I'd take the field, only because its a better pick.

Theres only a few teams under the right circumstances I think can beat Kentucky.  The 3 obvious:

UVA, with Anderson and Brogden getting hot.

Duke, with Okafor playing similar to his Notre Dame games if not better and Jones, and Cook hitting a few 3's

Wisconsin, Kaminsky needs to be basically perfect along with Jackson returning 100%

Then maybe a few others under the "get hot like Uconn type situations"

Utah, UNC, Texas, Iowa State

And then the miracle of miracles:

BYU(I think in a good bracket could be a bracket buster and make a S16 or even E8,  WSU(with Baker, Vanflett, Cotton playing like possessed demons)

3/2/2015 8:29 PM
colonels19
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I'm rooting for UK!
3/2/2015 8:49 PM
bobmeyer
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Gillespie, I was just teasing brianxavier. I knew you were from around here. I remember the first time XAVIER was ranked ahead of Kentucky in the polls, and I would tease my UK buds about 'the dawning of a new era'...then Kentucky went out and won the National Championship!
3/2/2015 10:46 PM
gillispie1
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there have been a lot of killer kentucky teams in my relatively short time following them... my first basketball memory is of watching the tournament in '92 with my dad, the famous (or infamous, in my circles) kentucky duke elite 8 game. but since then, we had the 96 team, arguably the greatest of all time, and a number of really incredible other teams (97 so close, the keith bogans #1 overall seed group, 08 with wall & co, 12 with davis & co). in all those years, i cannot remember the cats just straight up demolishing high level competition like this year's cats did early in the season. i don't think this team has the tony delk, antoine walker, john wall, anthony davis level stars, which makes them seem less amazing at a glance. but that depth... its so unreal. any player on the 2nd platoon has the potential to be the best player in any given game. to me, they have a shot at being the best of all those great cats teams. all comes down to march i suppose...

3/3/2015 12:01 AM
all2matt
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I think UVA and Wisconsin boith have a 50/50 chance to beat UK.   Iowa St and DUKE if they are hot can definilty play with them,  NOVA Im not sure havent watched them enough this yr.  The rest I dont see a tema that would hang with them under normal circumstances.  Coaches like IZZO and ROY you cant neccesarily discount even though they may not have the teams theyve had in the past.

3/3/2015 10:15 AM
kneeneighbor
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Kentucky will not only win they will do it by 10+ in every game. 
3/3/2015 10:26 AM
skinndogg
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I think most of Kentucky's opponents defeat themselves.  They are just so intimidated by Kentucky's size, athletism and depth, they mentally just give up.  I watched what they did to Kansas and UCLA.  I also watched the two overtime games and those teams were not confident even when they were winning.

I know it's the tourney and anything can happen, but I think this team is different.



3/3/2015 12:36 PM
cburton23
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I think we could see Kentucky get tripped up by a non big name team.  If they play Wisco or Nova they will be ready and out to prove a point.  I think Duke is the next best team out there, they are playing lights out right now, but Kentucky will be on-point for that game.  If Kentucky goes down it will be in the E8 or S16 when they play a team like UNI or SMU or SDSU.  A team that is under the radar a bit and the Cats may overlook, not to mention a team with experience and a solid coach.  If Kentucky finds themselves in a spot where they think they can take a breath, especially against a team that like to grind it out they could be in trouble.  Even more so if it is in the Thursday or Friday game and they may be looking ahead to the weekend.
3/3/2015 1:32 PM
eflhoca
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The field is always favored, probabilistically. I think the highest I've ever seen any ELO model give a team going into the tourney was 20%, and that's really good odds. 
Suppose KY has a 99.9% chance of winning the first game and then a 90% chance of each game thereafter (which it obviously wouldn't... there's only an 86% chance of beating Georgia tonight, for example). The odds of them winning it: 
.999 * .9^5 = .59, just over the 50% line. 


3/3/2015 2:30 PM
gillispie1
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59% is not just over the 50% line but still, yeah its pretty tough. the difference between the 59% and 50% is quite a bit, lets you turn one of those 90% games into a 76% game and still be 50%. 
 
3/3/2015 3:12 PM
jmfisc06
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I think Kentucky will run the table this year.  Most of the upsets in the tourney each year happens when the favored team's star doesn't show up or the other team has a player simply go off.  Kentucky's strength this year is having 9 guys who can play at an extremely high level.  When 2 or 3 guys have bad game the other 6 step up to pick up the slack.  Another scary thought is the fact that as good as Kentucky is defensively, the past couple of weeks their offense has caught up.  Forgoing an injury to WCS, Towns, or Booker, I do not see UK losing this season.
3/3/2015 4:37 PM
oldave
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anyone care to change thier wager?  ;-)
3/3/2015 10:55 PM
oldave
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youre welcome bigblueballnation,  i probly just jinxed the dawgs.
3/3/2015 10:57 PM
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NCAA Tourney: Kentucky or The Field? Topic
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