Red's Regular-season Rupp Rundown

American Southwest -- As expected, Howard-Simmons and Texas Lutheran have established themselves as national contenders. Howard Payne is solid. LeTourneau's superclass fizzled, but Sim-coached Sul Ross St. is picking up the slack for them.

Capital -- The expected Gaulladet-Catholic showdown in the North turned one-sided as whsgbbcoach runs the table to a 16-0 finish and national ranking.

Centennial -- Our preseason call of Ursinus finished 15-1 in the league, but is looking up at Dickinson, which swept the table and finishes 16-0, 21-5, but without a ranking. Coach mfnmyers is now 46-2 in league play over the last three seasons.

CUNY -- Staten Island goes 15-1 in league play and, as forecast, finishes in the top 25. There could still be some work to be done though as I'm not sure anyone from the league has locked an NT invite yet.

CCIW -- Northland, Martin Luther and Illinois Wesleyan all go 14-2, with slider's IW crew turning in a 24-2 regular season mark. The CT will be big...Martin Luther is 42nd in the projection report to lead the conference, putting Northland and IW on the PIT borderline.

Commonwealth Coast -- As expected, Wentworth and Colby-Sawyer each go 15-1 to identify themselves as the cream of the crop.

Commonwealth -- Susquehanna and defending national champion Penn St.-Altoona each go 14-2 in league play to split the South title, but bragging rights go to 15-1 Elizabethtown and second-year skipper tylerraborn.

Empire -- Vassar posts a 15-1 mark to win the league, extending a streak that has seen the school win 10+ conference games every year going back to Season 14 (!!). Union and jtgraves are rebounding from a 1-9 non-conference campaign and could be dancing soon.

Freedom -- Sim-coached Lake Erie and Lycoming split honors with 13-3, 20-6 marks. It's all irrelevant though. With the highest conference RPI at 121, it'll all come down to the CT champion.

Great Northeast -- Johnson & Wales has been the regular season juggernaut in Rupp and ran the table at 26-0, but was tested slightly more during the regular season than Penn St.-Altoona was last year. The GNE will likely finish in the top 10 RPI's historically across all worlds. The CT could be a sneak peek at much of the Final Four.

Heartland -- We picked Defiance and warned you about Sim-coached Manchester. Now, with 14-2 marks, they're sharing the league-best honors, although only carl's Defiance squad can be assured of an NT slot at this time.

Iowa -- Dubuque was denied its quest for a third consecutive undefeated conference season, but at 14-2 was still the best league mark. Buena Vista performed up to expectation and ought to be dancing while kudos go to spike101, who was ignored in the preseason rundown and will be dancing with Cornell.

Little East -- I said East Connecticut St. fans wouldn't have to be too nervous this season and they weren't as loby1120 guided them to a second consecutive 16-0 league mark. The closest margin of victory -- 7 points.

Michigan -- I said at the start of the year that this might be the most fun conference in Rupp D3 this season from a balance standpoint. Emerging from that scrum was Calvin and head coach prc56, with a 14-2 record. One game back were Adrian, Kalamazoo and Eureka as things were every bit as crowded as expected.

Midwest -- Nachopuzzle runs the table with Rose Hulman Tech and posts a 16-0 mark, all the wins coming by double-digits. That's now three perfect league campaigns in a row for those of you playing along at home.

Minnesota -- Preseason pick St. Mary's didn't go .500, proving this is an inexact science. Hamline, on the other hand, went 15-1 for Sim AI. There was a snippet of preseason observation that was correct, however. This league is only getting one NT berth, so St. Mary's can still do me proud.

NESCAC --  I said Connecticut and Bates. I was half right. Coach rwright gives Conn its third straight conference title with a 15-1 record. He's now 45-3 over that three-year span in the league.

New Jersey -- Rutgers at Camden storms to a 16-0 record and back-to-back undefeated conference campaigns. Coach zaclowe will be dancing for a fourth consecutive season.

North Atlantic -- I picked Elms College and a 16 seed. In reality, it looks like it might be Maine-Presque Isle (15-1) and, well, maybe a 15 seed? 

NCAC -- I sort of called out first-year coach 4213 preseason by questioning if a first-year coach could guide Wabash to a league title. The answer is in and, at 14-2, in the affirmative as he comes in one game better than dereksilcox's Denison club. In fact, Wabash might be the only team locked into the NT right now.

Northwest -- The preseason call was for a three-way battle royale in the West, and we got a three-way battle. Chapman and Coach quiet finish 15-1 to win regular-season honors. As expected, they, Whitworth and Eastern Oregon all appear dance-bound.

Ohio -- John Carroll finishes 15-1 and gives the regular season bragging rights to whit6r. Tip o' the hat to docmastermd, who was ignored at Otterbein in the preseason, but wins the South title by two games and will be playing some sort of postseason basketball.

ODAC -- Preseason we said Lynchburg and Bethany were the cream of the league, and they certainly have been. Coach barney1974 goes 16-0 at Lynchburg to win the regular season by a game, but get this -- aussy's Bethany team has gone no worse than this year's 15-1 conference mark for nine consecutive seasons now!

Penn -- Sim-coached Marywood goes 14-2 to win the conference, which is only getting its CT champion through to the Big Dance.

Skyline -- As predicted, the US Merchant Marines and Coach lynchmob1414 finish atop the league at 16-0 for a second consecutive year. Solly2225's SUNY-Maritime crew went 15-1, but might still have work to do before he's dancing.

Southern Cal -- CSU Eastbay and Coach tedlukacs point out that sportswriters don't know a doggone thing by going 15-1 and finishing better than anyone else in the league, including the three schools I predicted would vie for the crown. It's his first league title in three years at the helm of the program.

St. Louis -- All the humans in this conference are in the West, but it was Sim-coached MacMurray out of the East that's holding a 16-0 mark and laughing its evil little silicon diodes into conference tournament play.

SUNY -- Coach ces guides SUNY, Oswego to a 15-1 conference mark to finish two-games clear of predicted winner Brockport. The first-year coach will have to win the CT though to assure himself of a place in the national field.

University -- Louisiana and Coach discodave run the table in a league I thought would be better positioned on the national stage at year's end. In reality, only Millsaps and brianxavier, now 61-3 over the last four conference campaigns, will likely be joining the regular-season champs into the dance.

Upstate -- Brandeis and Coach lhrr dodged all the regular-season landmines to go 16-0. NYU and RPI were each two games back at 14-2 this season.

USA South -- Greensboro and Coach tilldog28 go 16-0 for the eighth time in nine seasons, but he might have to win three more to insure a streak of 9 consecutive national tournament appearances won't end.

Wisconsin -- The league finishes with three teams each sporting 14-2 records as preseason call Wisconsin-Oshkosh is joined by fellow Sim-coached schools Wisconsin-Superior and Edgewood. It'll all come down to the CT though -- only one school from this conference is going anywhere this postseason.

Thanks for the update Rednu!  Here at Defiance, we did about as well as expected during the regular season as we are a little young this time around.  I am just hoping to win a game or two in the WCAA to keep the prestige propped up.

Sorry, this isn't as detailed as last year's, but I'm a bit rushed to get out the door to a regional track meet this morning. Here's my tournament overview...ridicule (or discuss) at your leisure:

Midwest
Favorite: Johnson & Wales. GNE juggernaut has rolled through the regular season, but received no favors from the selection committee in a fairly stacked quarter of the bracket.

If not them, then who? — Rose Hulman is in better shape this season than when nachopuzzle marched to the FInal Four a year ago.

Upset alert: Manchester. Coach rwright has done a laudable job going 27-2 with Connecticut, and it’s hard to pick a Sim-coached team over a human. I just think Manchester has enough of a talent edge in this one.

East
Favorite: There isn’t one. This will be the chaos bracket of the tournament, starting in the first round and going all the way through. I’ll pick Hardin-Simmons, just because they’ve got the regular season resume.

If not them, then who? — Take your pick. Susquehanna, St. Joeseph’s, Emmanuel, Rutgers at Camden. Any of them would look just as at-home as Hardin-Simmons in the Final Four.

Upset alert: Marietta over Dickinson. Although it really seems unfair to call anything in this bracket an upset, this is the game that I like the most for a double-digit to win. After the first round, just dump the 8 remaining teams in a hat and draw lots.

South
Favorite: Newbury. Rugged schedule has left them with some L’s, but still the cream of the crop in this division.

If not them, then who? — Take your pick of just about anyone in seeds 2-9. The region looks incredibly balanced behind Newbury. But there’s definitely a talent gap between frontrunner and the pack. Ursinus gets my nod as best of the rest.

Upset alert: Adrian will win the 8-9 coinflip, but beyond that I think the first round will likely play out as seeded.

West
Favorite: Millsaps. Yes, they lost to No. 1 seed Rivier on Day 10, but picking No. 1 seeds was getting boring. Picking GNE teams was getting pretty boring too.

If not them, then who? — Rivier. Texas Lutheran. If you want a real longshot, look at Greensboro, which is definitely not your typical No. 12 seed in terms of team rating. But probably Rivier. 

Upset alert: Whittier over Cornell. The warning sirens and red lights should be flashing for defending national champion Penn St. Altoona as well when they step onto the court against that Greensboro crew.

Final Four
I'm going to keep riding the horses I've gone with all year. Johnson and Wales and Newbury have stood out on paper to me since the pre-season and they still do. Look for a rematch of the GNE conference championship game as the national championship game. I'll waffle on my pre-season selection of Newbury, however and say Johnson and Wales finishes its run of the D3 table. 

Red, I forgive you for picking Brian to bump me out of the FF because a) I like these tournament previews a lot and b) now we have something to prove!

Posted by jack_duck on 5/12/2012 12:34:00 PM (view original):
Red, I forgive you for picking Brian to bump me out of the FF because a) I like these tournament previews a lot and b) now we have something to prove!

You're welcome ;) 

Don't count out a Colby-Sawyer upset! We managed to nab the 12 seed, and we are hoping to pull off that 5/12 upset that happens every year.

Not sure Millsaps has a final four in them, but I'll take it.  I was able to avenge one lose already by beating Louisiana in CT.  Jack_Duck's squad beat me pretty soundly, so if I get that far (and if he does too), not sure I like my chances. 

It was a pretty quiet first round in most regions -- in the Midwest, Johnson & Wales showed how vulnerable they are by failing to cover the 63-point spread and merely doubling up Johnson St. 94-47 behind Frank Smith's 30. Best game was probably Wabash-Gaulladet. Wabash holds Gaulladet to just 2 points over a 6-minute spread of the second half to open an 11-point lead, gives it all back, then clamps down to hold them to just 2 points over the final 2:48 to pull away with the win. Dubuque goes perfect from the free throw line down the stretch to hold off a late Emerson run that saw the higher seed get within 3 with 35 seconds to play. Rose Hulman held Wentworth without a bucket from the floor for a 9-minute stretch spanning the first and second halves to take control of their game. Connecticut, US Merchant Marines, Louisiana and Vassar roll with relative ease into round 2. 

Out east, there was no chaos in the so-called "Chaos Region" as the top seeds advance throughout, but there was some drama. Willie Dillinger's conventional 3-point play with 4 seconds remaining enabled 3-seed St. Joseph's to dodge danger and advance 73-71 over upset-minded Northland. Emmanuel trailed just once the entire game, but could never shake a pesky 12-seed in Colby-Sawyer. They won 60-53, but the game was tied with 3:01 to play. Top-seed Hardin-Simmons cruised. Eastbay wins in a game that featured 45 turnovers, 55 fouls and 75 free throw attempts. Lynchburg shot 54.5 percent to advance. Dickinson used a strong first half and late 10-0 run to overcome a 31-point night from Marietta's Frank Schneider. Rutgers at Camden holds Calvin to just 2 points over an 8-minute span of the second half to take control and win 67-61 after trailing by 6 early in the second half. Susquehanna scored 52 in the first half to roll as the No. 2 seed. 

In the south, the top eight seeds also advanced. Daniel Gaylord hit a runner near the bucket as the final horn sounded to move Buena Vista on to Round 2. Adrian had led by 11 at halftime in that game. Ursinus trailed by five with under 10 minutes to play, but a late surge helped the 3-seed stave off upset-minded Union 97-91 in a track meet of a game. Top-seed Newbury outscored Oshkosh 49-25 in the second half to cruise. John Carroll and Defiance both win comfortably to advance to a second-round meeting against each other. Whitworth held a +11 edge on the glass and held Maritime to 31.1 percent from the floor to advance. East Connecticut scored 11 of the game's first 13 points and Howard Payne never recovered in a 64-49 game. No. 2 seed Brandeis was methodical in grinding out a comfortable 16-point win. 

Then there's the wild west, which had all the major upsets on opening night. 14-seed Norwich held Chapman to just 22 points in the first half as Herbert Kitchen cooked up 24 points and an upset win. Martin Luther, an 11 seed, trailed by 7 with 4:42 to play, but held NYU to just 3 points after that, including a scoreless final 1:50, to march on 77-74. A scoreless 3 minutes late for 7-seeded Cornell made the difference as Whittier pulls a 71-66 upset. Only second-seed Millsaps avoided drama in that half of the region, cruising 93-51. On the top side, Rivier was equally impressive in a 95-61 smackdown of Lake Erie. Bethany was solid as the 8-9 pairing turned into an 18-point win for aussy. Defending national champion Penn St. Altoona watched an 18-point halftime lead melt away to a single point repeatedly in the final 40 seconds, but held on nervously for a 79-76 victory over No. 12 seed Greensboro. Texas Lutheran hit 59.1 percent from the floor to cruise past Kalamazoo. 

Lots of great pairings tonight...should see some fireworks!

Few thoughts:

In a stunning upset, Rivier goes down.  Tough loss for coach Jack_Duck. It took a near perfect game for #8 seeded Bethany to win, and they got it.  Free throws may have been the difference, as Bethany shot 26/31 for 83% (13% above their average).  The inside/outside combo of Kibby and Stearn was just enough for Bethany to win by 4 points.  This was no fluke though, as Bethany was up most of the second half until Rivier tied it briefly... 

Few other mild upsets based on seeding with Dickinson and Whitworth winning (both #6 seeds over #3 seeds).

Fans are psyched in Northfield, VT as Norwich is in the Sweet 16 for the first time in over 20 seasons.

Only other mild surprise was Connecticut, led by HOF coach rwright with a big win over US Merchant Marines (one of my sleeper picks for Final Four).  A +10 advantage on rebounds and +5 on free throws was key for the victory.

Despite being out-rebounded by 7, and a -1 margin on made free-throws (Whittier shot 87% from the line!), Millsaps held on for a 7 point victory.    Whittier's 26 TOs and .364 FG% was their undoing.

Big games next round that have my attention (for obvious reasons):  Can Louisiana beat J&W?  I don't think so, but I'll be rooting for my conference mate to pull the upset.  Can Norwich continue to the Elite 8?  My Millsap Majors hope to end the upset minded Norwich Cadets winning streak.  Majors always beat Cadets, so I like my chances.

Elite Eight includes two #6 seeds, Dickinson and Whitworth.

Congrats to all you Elite 8'ers.  Should be some good games tonight!  I think RHIT will test J Dub more than anyone else they've played, and I'm also really looking forward to the Hardin-Simmons / Dickinson matchup.

The RH-JW game is definitely must-see TV tonight. That was a potential game that jumped off the page at me when I was analyzing the brackets. Texas Lutheran-Millsaps looks intriguing as well. Could be the top two in the GNE and the top two from the ASC left standing at night's end.

Interestingly enough, Texas Lutheran vs. Millsaps shows two teams that are mirror images of each other....  Coach blapo21 has a more veteran squad with 7 upperclassmen.  Both teams run press and motion.  But when I look at the individual match-ups and starters/bench, we both seem to emphasize the same skill set in our players. 

Ironically, two seasons ago we both had a dog fight over a recruit in Texas (Millsaps was able to land John Myers by a hair).  Looking at his roster, he may be happier with the Freshman he picked up this year instead (my guess is Wright is filling the role that Myers would have -- blapo21 had to take a walk-on when he didn't get Myers).

RH-JW game will be interesting.  JW has a few close calls this season, which would make me real nervous if I was the coach....

Any team left at this point is good enough to beat J&W.  Rose-Hulman has shot the ball lights out all season, .519/.475 and lived at the FT line.  If our defense can hold them well below those averages, I think we win going away.  If R-H has a good shooting night and gets us in some foul trouble, it could be a long night.