D3, Season 68 Topic

this stuff is great.  thanks rednu and bullman!  thanks to pseudo for putting together the dynasty list too.
8/21/2013 9:02 PM
If only there was money to be made, pseudo, bullman and I could go into business writing our own newstand basketball magazine for this game :)
8/21/2013 11:24 PM
Posted by jeffsu on 8/21/2013 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Holy cow. You have Hendrix in the NT? I'm amazed. This team has struggled, especially in the UAA, with the prediction for 6 wins. I'd hve to go back three seasons to total that many Conf wins!
I think you break thru this season Jeff.  Finally a full roster of your players will make a difference and all those close losses last year will turn into some Ws
8/22/2013 8:53 AM
Posted by rednu on 8/21/2013 11:24:00 PM (view original):
If only there was money to be made, pseudo, bullman and I could go into business writing our own newstand basketball magazine for this game :)
I keep trying to include HD accomplishments in the goals and objectives part of my annual review, but no dice so far.
8/22/2013 9:56 AM
Alright, let's get this party started.  Time to kick off another season of GoTN write-ups and as a side note, tips are accepted.

One other item to note, we're now down to 384 undefeated teams...

#11 Susquehanna (0-0)(zeuspole) at #1 Ursinus (0-0)(barjaz)
We're not wasting any time getting to the top-ranked team in the nation as barjaz's Bears play host to zeuspole's Crusaders in a first night battle of teams with rankings consisting only of 1's.  zeuspole leads the series between these two coaches 10-8 but the higher ranked home team is a 6 point favorite tonight.  This should be a great battle to get the new season started.

Also considered: #14 Millsaps at #9 Texas Lutheran, #19 Merchant Marines at Dickinson, and North Carolina Wesleyan at #25 S. Vermont

Sim blowout watch: Off to a solid start in the blowout watch as well with Case Western getting a hefty 75 points at home against #7 Emory and Anderson playing as a 74 point home dog against #10 Suffolk.

The ITaLRbHAGotN featured game will return once the conference season starts up.  It likes to build up anticipation for dramatic effect.
8/22/2013 2:44 PM
Posted by rednu on 8/21/2013 11:24:00 PM (view original):
If only there was money to be made, pseudo, bullman and I could go into business writing our own newstand basketball magazine for this game :)
Wait... I thought you said you were paying me for these, rednu.  What the???
8/22/2013 2:46 PM
Way Too Early Final Four

As always, alphabetical order with a rule against taking more than 2 teams from the same conference. For the record, I had eight teams that I looked strongly at and then thought there was a pretty clear break down to the "next tier."

-- Emory (phalla, preseason #7, 30-5 last season, National Champs x2)
The two-time defending national champions deserve to be on this list by virtue of that fact alone. That said, phalla did an outstanding job reloading for another run. He brought in a pair of JUCO types to prep for this season. Assuming they're versed in his Off/Def, this team suddenly has more than enough upperclass types to compete, with solid Ath and Def to boot. Can anyone disrupt phalla's groove?

-- Johnson & Wales (spasticity, preseason #4, 28-6, Final Four)
A fastbreak offense with five players boasting speeds of 73+. You don't need a crystal ball to see where this is probably going. The Big 3 values are all solidly in the 50s and a BH/Pass split of 52/45 could make turnovers tough to force from this bunch as well. Could be vulnerable on the glass against top tier competition if you're looking for a weakness.

-- Oglethorpe (getiguy, preseason #5, 23-10, PI champions)
Oglethorpe has mead steady progress in getiguy's first three seasons at the helm, improving from 7 to 15 to 23 wins. Now it's time for the big payoff as a roster exclusively of seniors and juniors takes center stage. The Ath/Spd/Def trifecta is 57/58/57 here. Depth won't be an issue. The biggest question is whether a coach who has yet to post a winning conference mark in Rupp is ready for prime time. Oh, wait, getiguy has a career win percentage of .729 and 842 career wins across all HD worlds (and one national title)...so the answer to that question is a resounding yes.

-- Piedmont (bunkerbuster, preseason #2, 30-3, Elite 8)
Another team exclusively of seniors and juniors, and it came a lot closer to a national title last season than Oglethorpe. It's hard to pinpoint a weakness to this team which is mid-50s for Ath/Spd/Def. Good BH values as well. How do you beat bunkerbuster this season? Try with a bat while he's sleeping...

Also considered -- Colorado, Greensboro, Ozarks, Ursinus.
8/22/2013 4:19 PM
SusQ vs Ursinus!?! That's a helluva kick-off to the new season!

Favorite line "How do you beat bunkerbuster this season? Try with a bat while he's sleeping ... "

I plan to refer back to that, come game #10 ... : )
8/22/2013 4:32 PM
I'm right there with you phalla. Somehow I thought it was a good idea to schedule him this season. At his place.
8/22/2013 7:07 PM
Wow.  Bull shows Cornell making the tourney and not I at all?  Time to prove some formula wrong.  :)
8/22/2013 11:37 PM
I thoroughly understand that my team is not elite this year and most likely a .500 squad but can someone explain how I lose by 18 to a team with terrible ATH/DEF, zero low post and no big men?

And yes, my depth is bad, my TOs are gonna be high but I still thought i was light years better than that team?  Am I wrong?

Teach me your ways Rupp Elite!
8/23/2013 3:09 AM
I would have predicted a win by you, after looking at both rosters person by person.  But, I have noticed that stamina seems to be a sneaky rating that people overlook.  and your team's stamina is really low.  Especially for a press team, that is going to hurt.  looking at the PBP your team was really gassed at the end of game which probably completely eliminated any effectiveness (I think there is a steap penatly for being very fatigued).  foul trouble also really hurt you that game.  I don't know if that was just one bad game (looks like your fouls were pretty even each half) --- or if your def ratings + young team (hence lower IQ on press def) will result in more fouls generally. 

if you look at Greensboro, or J&W- you'll notice very high stamina.  Granted they are running fastbreak + press...  or look at Peidmont who runs motion/press - very, very high stamina. I know a young team has to develop, so your guys may have opporunity for growth in stamina - but for now that's my best guess as to why you got smoked this time out.
8/23/2013 9:07 AM
Agree with what Brian said.  ST is the biggest problem.  64 team ST for Motion/Press would be unacceptable for me personally, and that is a really easy thing to forget about (75-80 should be the target).  But it's hard enough to avoid excessive fouling in Press as it is..when you add 64 ST to that, you're going to see a lot of games like this with ~30 fouls.  Fouling, TOs, and shooting all get noticeably worse with a dog tired team.

When I switched J&W to FB and didn't have the team ST high enough yet, we'd have games against teams with similar talent where we'd get fatigue'd to death.  Some early fouls, backups stay on the court longer, now they get fouls too, now everyone is in the red..can turn into a 30+ point loss in a hurry.  So I completely agree with Brian about ST.

It's also worth pointing out they have a 52 to 38 edge in team Spd, which is pretty significant if you're trying to Press them. 

fwiw I would play slowdown probably every single game with that team, mainly just to avoid the fatigue death spiral.
8/23/2013 10:01 AM
sometimes I am guilty at looking at a player and thinking -- "that guy is very average...why did HOF coach grab him?"  then I check his stamina and it's in the 90s.  I have learned not to underestimate those guys.  Especially after I lose the game.  Greensboro has done that to me a number of times it seems.
8/23/2013 10:11 AM
Not to pick on Buena Vista, but just to further put that ST into context..I looked through D3 and couldn't find a single team with worse than 64 team ST.  It did surprise me to see that Emory also has that number.

8/23/2013 10:50 AM
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D3, Season 68 Topic

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