Posted by logain on 5/14/2013 8:28:00 PM (view original):
Posted by natenoy on 5/14/2013 7:33:00 PM (view original):I do feel like tarheel maybe wasted the deal a bit with his 4th round picks though.. Roy and Brandon are not always even drafted.
Logain your trade with tar had other ripple effects as well, he was able to snag both Faried and Drummond, no way he gets them both with his own 6th, and may not have gotten either.
Yeah, I'd somewhat agree with that, but like I said I intend for this team to be in a test in a lot of ways. I like to draft different style teams from draft to draft (of course with generally the same underlying principles). But like nate said, no way I'd get both or either of Drummond/Faried in 6th, so it helped me beef up my frontcourt.
So, here's the thinking of what I'm trying out here, specifically with the Roy/Brandon backcourt:
-1st, I have a suspicion that, despite what most think and what we've been told, total usg%/fga are still important along with the usage tiers. I'm thinking that a 26.5% usg and 22.5% usg player do not affect team fg%/possession penalties exactly the same. So, I have a team here that, by normal "tiers" standards, is too high on usage and should be wasting some (19 points in starting lineup - it does go lower w/ bench players, though). However, I think the total usg (I believe starting lineup is around 113%) is pretty appropriate, maybe just a touch high, but pretty close to the 110% total I think is optimal for a team running uptempo (as pretty much all my teams do). I think having some "extra" usage will help my team as a whole perform a little better from the field than they would otherwise.
-2nd, I'm interested in probing at how the SIM assigns individual defenders and the effect that has on individual players' efficiency. One interesting thing about Roy and Brandon is that they have the exact same usage and are pretty close in efficiency. So I think it will be interesting to see who draws the better defender (when, as with most teams, the PG and SG are interchangeable defensively), and if it's always the same guy. Does the SIM simply assign the best defender to the highest-usage player? To the most efficient? Maybe some combo formula of the two? I'm not sure which player will be considered to have the higher usage (BBall ref says Brandon had slightly higher usage, but their numbers are always slightly different), but I'm assuming at some level of the SIM they're decimal points different (maybe not). If they're considered even, I'd expect Roy, the higher-efg% player, to draw the matchup (but their ts% are actually exactly identical according to bball ref), if they're considered to have exact same usage and efficiency is either the tiebreaker or the sole measure. But anyway, point is that (1) I expect one guy to always or almost always draw the better defender and (2) I expect one to produce significantly more efficiently (like 3% better efg, maybe). It will be interesting to see if it happens.
-3rd, I'll be watching turnovers carefully with this team. I've lamented before that it seems to be very difficult to significantly change the # of TO an uptempo team commits, with seriously diminishing returns when trying to draft low TO. Here, my two highest-usage players (Brandon and Roy) have exceptionally low turnovers for their level of usage, but I also feature a player with very high turnovers for his usage (Buck). I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of the guards turn it over more than Buck, though, because high usage players seem to be affected much more by uptempo. But this team overall might have a decent shot at putting up pretty low TO, since all the usage should keep anyone from ever being in the penalty.
So - that's why I think this team will be fun to track. Should have the D to not let other teams' scoring mess up the experiment too much, although we'll be a little weak in the backcourt. Should have plenty of OReb, too, to grab misses from Roy and Brandon. We'll see what happens.