How important is “help” defense? Topic

This probably belongs in the other forum but it has to do with the ODL and I know some of you are like me and check this forum 5-10 times a day and rarely use the other forums.

In my ODL playoff series that just ended with tar my 05-06 Kobe went simply insane. Here are the facts:

RL Kobe had a fg% of 45%; an efg of 49.1% and was 180/518 from the arc for 34.7%.

Sim regular season Kobe had a fg% of 45.6%; an efg of 50.3% and was 246/662 from the arc for 37.2%. He led the league in ppg at 39.9 for 80 games.

I have the 94-95 Stockton and his 42.9 ast% on the floor with Kobe for about 36 minutes a game. The combined weighted ast% average for my 8 players (excluding Kobe and Stockton’s backups) of which three would be on the court with Kobe/Stockton is 18.12%. So on average when both Kobe and Stockton are on the floor the team is running a combined ast% of a shade under 75%. When Stockton’s backup is in its about 53%.

Tar’s G’s were 09-10 Kidd 82D about 36mpg; 05-06 Ray Allen 40D about 37mpg; about 6 mpg of 42D Jason Richardson; about 8mpg of 60D Art Williams and 60D Matt Barnes covers the remaining SG minutes as a SG/SF.

From the play-by-play it appears that Kidd was on Kobe for all minutes they both were on the floor. So Kobe was up against 82D for about 90% of the game

Ok here’s where it gets crazy, the series ended in 5 and tar went to a double team on Kobe for the 5th game. Here were Kobe’s stats for the first four games:

45.5 ppg, 73 for 130 from the field for a fg% of 56.2% and 16 for 31 from the arc for 51.6% and an efg of 62.3%

SO, my thought is this: I know this is a very small sample size but I’ve noticed numerous times that 3% can exceed RL. Is it possible that “help” defense plays a VERY critical role in whether or not a 3-point shot is made in the sim? Kidd was on Kobe, but his “help” was at best a 60D rating and was 40-42 (sub-50 thus the shooting bonus is applied) for in excess of 90% of the game.

I’ll look at some of my data I have from completed leagues and try to see if teams with one sub-50D have a far worse 3pt% allowed than expected, for example if one team has say a 70D Deron Williams and a 60D Brent Barry do they fair better defending the arc than say a team with a 90D Rondo and a 40D Ray Allen? Same total D, and usage guy has to face a tougher individual defender v. the team with the sub-50 guy, but does the lack of “help” hurt more than most of us may realize?

Anyone have thoughts on this one?

5/20/2013 7:00 PM (edited)
I think that there is a program flaw in the double team defense setting and I rarely use it. I've seen too many players do even better than RL numbers when they are doubled. Just like the 3's generating at way too high of a rate when playing uptempo. Poor programming.
5/21/2013 10:30 AM
I think you've overthinking it, nate, and I think that this would be very difficult to actually tease out in the SIM anyway, because there are so many confounding factors. How about adding Kobe's numbers in the regular season against my team? I didn't double him in any of those games, either. I think you'll see a result that's closer to what his normal numbers were.

Vance - I agree on double teams. I basically never use them. I only DTed Kobe in game 5 after I was down 3-1 and he had absolutely smoked me for four games. FWIW, the double team clearly worked in this case, because both Kobe and nate's team were far less effective offensively in game 5, but I'm still not convinced DTing is that useful.

5/21/2013 10:54 AM
Yea, the rest of the story is that in Game 5 tar's double-team REALLY did work, but the guy 98 considers a fraud in Jerry Lucas scored with 30 seconds left and after Ray Allen missed two shots Kobe iced a 103-100 win from the stripe.

Discussed Kobe's game 1-4 success above, ave score of first four games was 134.0-120.0, Game 5 was only 103-100. Kobe's game 5 line v. the double: 11 for 32, 2 for 9 from three for only 31 points, one of his lowest scoring games of the entire season. But the double-team debate is a topic for another time.
5/21/2013 11:09 AM
Tar, yep just looked at data for our 8 regular season games and Kidd and company actually held Kobe below his season ave's, he only scored 36.0 ppg, almost four lower than on the season, he was 23 for 68 from three, that's right on his 3pm ave but 33.8% is lower than ave, he was 105 for 255 from the field, at 41.2% that's much lower than his season ave. And his efg was only .457, almost a full 5 percentage points below his season ave.

So maybe the engine changes a little in the playoffs? Or is this just an example of being on the lucky side of some random outcomes?
5/21/2013 11:22 AM
Nate, I think your seeing numberous effects at play, here's my general thoughts on this matter. 1) After a player is drafted I forget about their RL stat's, they don't really matter any more. I only pay attention to the differential stats (my team#'s). 2) Defense on the SIM does one thing, it lowers your opponents FG% (2 & 3pts). The more minutes of strong defense you put on the floor the more it impacts your opponents FG%, therefore a good defense on the bench helps. 3) The other thing that effects your FG% is your ast%, a strong ast%, correctly distributed, will increase the shooters FG% (WIS states this flat out). 4) So, it follows that the battle is really between your opponents defense and your ast%. I regularly get my players to exceed there RL FG%, while not exceeding their RL pts/game stat this keeps them out of penalty. I do this by putting strong ast%, in all three zones, paint , mid & perimeter. Hope this helps some. GL
5/21/2013 12:27 PM
I have some teams that keep +80ast% on the floor for 48 minutes. This "Bumps" the team FG% through the roof, numerous +60%FG games for the team.
5/21/2013 12:32 PM
The Double Team doesn't work on the SIM, is a bunch of crap. Last week I won a championship as a direct result of a DT. Seidek's Rockets had beaten my Celtics in the fist 2 games at my house. In game3 I DT his Rudy T.  with def77, 84 & 85 and win. I take the DT off in game4 and lose, I'm down 1-3 in the series. I put the DT back on Rudy T., win the next 3 and the Ring. The DT on SIM works fine, you can't DT with a def 42 & def 51 and expect it to result in anything but opening up an uncontested shot from someone else. If the DT'ed player passes well and has some where to pass it, your toast. If you play the DT smartly it works great.
5/21/2013 12:56 PM
Here's how it works, if you find a high scoring player with **** poor passing and nowhere to pass it to, DT that man in a heartbeat! If they pass well but have nowhere to go, it's a good bet. If they pass well and have Willie Wise standing next to them, you may want to leave that one alone. BTW - NEVER DT MJ!!!
5/21/2013 1:10 PM
The reason for the DT'ed player scoring way above average, is SIM's punishing you for being stupid. lmao
5/21/2013 1:18 PM
The other time the DT works great, if a team in the open $42M league has a high scoring Rookie, DT that man. Works everytime!!!
5/21/2013 1:22 PM
  lol - smokey, you're full of fun theories that have no real basis other than imagination in the SIM. "Strong ast% in all three zones?" WTF does that mean? You choose which players to DT with? Wasn't aware you could do that.
5/21/2013 1:25 PM
Tar, try setting your def optimization up correctly. Some people actually break their game down to zones and take care of business in each. Works wonders...
5/21/2013 5:43 PM
Nate, the SIM changes a ton in the PO's. The further onto the PO's you go the more it changes, the Finals and the 1st round are very different also. Another of my imaginary ideas base in the empirical, is that the "normalization is being lowered with each round of the PO's and is vertually "0" in the finals. This would account for the changes seen in the PO's. My regular season and PO stratagies are very different. 
5/21/2013 6:38 PM (edited)
IRL the DT is dicey at best, why do owners think it should be a "silver bullet" on the SIM. Makes no sense, but used correctly it's a useful tool.
5/21/2013 6:19 PM
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