This probably belongs in the other forum but it has to do with the ODL and I know some of you are like me and check this forum 5-10 times a day and rarely use the other forums.
In my ODL playoff series that just ended with tar my 05-06 Kobe went simply insane. Here are the facts:
RL Kobe had a fg% of 45%; an efg of 49.1% and was 180/518 from the arc for 34.7%.
Sim regular season Kobe had a fg% of 45.6%; an efg of 50.3% and was 246/662 from the arc for 37.2%. He led the league in ppg at 39.9 for 80 games.
I have the 94-95 Stockton and his 42.9 ast% on the floor with Kobe for about 36 minutes a game. The combined weighted ast% average for my 8 players (excluding Kobe and Stockton’s backups) of which three would be on the court with Kobe/Stockton is 18.12%. So on average when both Kobe and Stockton are on the floor the team is running a combined ast% of a shade under 75%. When Stockton’s backup is in its about 53%.
Tar’s G’s were 09-10 Kidd 82D about 36mpg; 05-06 Ray Allen 40D about 37mpg; about 6 mpg of 42D Jason Richardson; about 8mpg of 60D Art Williams and 60D Matt Barnes covers the remaining SG minutes as a SG/SF.
From the play-by-play it appears that Kidd was on Kobe for all minutes they both were on the floor. So Kobe was up against 82D for about 90% of the game
Ok here’s where it gets crazy, the series ended in 5 and tar went to a double team on Kobe for the 5th game. Here were Kobe’s stats for the first four games:
45.5 ppg, 73 for 130 from the field for a fg% of 56.2% and 16 for 31 from the arc for 51.6% and an efg of 62.3%
SO, my thought is this: I know this is a very small sample size but I’ve noticed numerous times that 3% can exceed RL. Is it possible that “help” defense plays a VERY critical role in whether or not a 3-point shot is made in the sim? Kidd was on Kobe, but his “help” was at best a 60D rating and was 40-42 (sub-50 thus the shooting bonus is applied) for in excess of 90% of the game.
I’ll look at some of my data I have from completed leagues and try to see if teams with one sub-50D have a far worse 3pt% allowed than expected, for example if one team has say a 70D Deron Williams and a 60D Brent Barry do they fair better defending the arc than say a team with a 90D Rondo and a 40D Ray Allen? Same total D, and usage guy has to face a tougher individual defender v. the team with the sub-50 guy, but does the lack of “help” hurt more than most of us may realize?
Anyone have thoughts on this one?
5/20/2013 7:00 PM (edited)