ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem Topic

I think we should have an age and height requirerment next season...nobody witha psycological age of less than 10 yrs old and no mental midgets. Unfortunately that would leave Felon out.
6/15/2013 12:53 AM
good one - now do what I told you like a good boy, it's your practice anyway as we've all seen over and over again
6/15/2013 1:24 AM
Tang, you been out drinking with that rooster again? Hope you brought bail money...
6/15/2013 1:29 AM
Posted by tanguma44 on 6/15/2013 12:25:00 AM (view original):
I am enjoying this already 98 and lebron the perfect couple... I will take my time for my pick tomorrow either because I am busy or simply because I am pondering my choices!
Two of the most hated people in the country...
6/15/2013 1:40 AM

IMO it’s hard to be too critical of these high picks because the players that have been drafted thus far all have great value and provide the groundwork for building a team. The value offered can vary greatly across the different aspects of the game, but it’s pretty hard to make a “bad pick” when members of the HOF (or likely future members) are being drafted.

The vision for these evals is “point-counterpoint” and I know Vance and I will get into evals that follow that framework once the pool of super-elite players is exhausted. We are not yet at the point where there is a significant drop in player pool talent and when owners have to pick the right players to fit with their cornerstone guys is when Vance and I will kick this up a level. 

6/15/2013 5:59 AM
Posted by 98average on 6/15/2013 1:40:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tanguma44 on 6/15/2013 12:25:00 AM (view original):
I am enjoying this already 98 and lebron the perfect couple... I will take my time for my pick tomorrow either because I am busy or simply because I am pondering my choices!
Two of the most hated people in the country...
And this is the 98luthor I am expecting anything less would be a waste...
6/15/2013 12:05 PM

Since I’m going to be spending so much time on this I might as well add draft position and 3-draft averages for each player for the previous three ODL’s. I’ll go back and update the first nine selections and add the info to the player name on the evals as we move forward. For picks 1-9 I’m including the below chart:

Player ODL 42 ODL 41 ODL 40 3-yr ave Current
LBJ 2 2 4 2.7 1
Wilt 1 3 5 3.0 2
Worm 5 1 3 3.0 3
Kareem 6 5 2 4.3 4
MJ 3 4 6 4.3 5
Moses 4 7 1 4.0 6
Mailman 10 8 14 10.7 7
Durant 23 17 15 18.3 8
Admiral 13 14 8 11.7 9

6/15/2013 1:00 PM
I take it this is the commentary thread?  Cool.

98average - LeBron James

Can't argue against the King.  The 12-13 season would be the best in the sim if it had more minutes... and it might still be anyway. Other seasons are quality as well, but that 12-13 season is just insane.  Nobody except shaq brings that kind of offensive efficiency (shooting & turnovers) in the sim, and Lebron brings it all in the backcourt while helping others get better & a rebounding advantage that the Big Fella doesn't bring.

2. jhsukow - Wilt Chamberlain, John Stockton

With the right owner & right supporting pieces, 66-67 Wilt teams should almost be unstoppable.  I have yet to see it in an ODL, however.  I've seen it done right in the funk52, however.  If using the 68-69 or 71-72 versions, you should have taken someone else (moses).  If using the 65-66 season, you should have taken Kareem.  None of the other seasons are elite in a non-progressive setting. Okay... Stockton + Wilt is frightening.  My only concern is only having 4 usage points with $20M already spent.

3. mikee1 - Dennis Rodman

I still think the Worm is the highest value in the sim, as nobody gives you what he gives you.  It's a challenge to build around him in this league, though, or more people would win with him.  It's pretty unthinkable to take a full support player this early, but I still hold to the opinion that his value is top 5 worthy.  Give me Worm & I'll walk away with the ring.

4. skypilot - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

3500 minutes of tier 2 usage at 57% efg?  Yes, please.  Note:  I won the ODL recently with the Captain.  It should be pretty easy to see why.

5. cmcafeeky - Michael Jordan

This feels about right for Jordan now.  Lebron (in the sim) is clearly better in all areas except tov% (but when you factor in assists, it becomes a close race there as well), but he's the only guard you can say this about.  I feel like building around Jordan is more of a challenge than building around bigs, but his value, to me, is top 5.

6. ashamael - Moses Malone

Moses used to be the unanimous #1 pick in this league season after season.  It's easy to see why: 44% crb (an absurd 18% on the offensive side), almost 55% efg at tier 3 usage, lots of ftas at a decent make percentage, not many fouls... all for 3300+ minutes.  Lots of turnovers doesn't detract from his value.  I value Howard here more per minute, but Moses has a lot more minutes to use.  While that means he costs more, it also means I get to use him almost the entire game in the playoffs, which is a boon to me.

7. seapilots - Karl Malone

3100+ minutes of almost 57% efg at tier 1 usage with a metric ****-ton of ftas at a decent make-rate.  Yes, please.  Should be noted that I won the ODL recently with the Mailman (the version I just mentioned).  The 96-97 version is often used, and is good, but I feel the 89-90 version is superior in this particular league.  You almost can't go wrong with either, however.  Very easy to build around.

8. smokey57 - Kevin Durant

Clearly a top 10 value now that his 12-13 season has come out.  Gives you an edge in all 3 facets of the game (possession, shooting & fouls).  If it wasn't just flat easier to build around big men, I'd say he's a top 5 value.  He gives you better boards (in regard to position) than Kareem or Shaq, gets to the line as much as anybody and makes them at a ridiculous rate.  Almost a 56% efg at tier 2 usage with many of those being 3s... the guy is a stud all around.

9. banditone - David Robinson

I'm not the fan of the admiral that many people are.  People keep saying "his boards..." but his boards are only 12 & 23.  That's not elite.  That's certainly not better than Howard.  "...and his 55% efg" is not better than Howard or Shaq or Chuck.  His 100 defense is nice, though.  55/100 vs 60/90... I'm taking the 60/90 (efg/def).  His turnovers are way better than Howard's, though, so there is that.  All told, can't diss the pick... just expressing that I'm just not as huge a fan of him as many others seem to be (I've never won anything with him in any league variant, which is saying something).

10. Tarheel1991 - Larry Bird

Nothing not to like about this pick, as long as he's playing the 2 (or you do a crazy ast% thing, in which case he can do the 3 or 4 fine).  Good efg% at tier 2 usage, a few threes, helps everyone shoot better, moderate defense, crazy good tov% when factoring in all of the assists he gives... definitely a top 15 value in my mind, so taking him at 10 is realistically good.

11. krishnaman - Dwight Howard

Great value in getting Howard here.  The 10-11 is idea for building a team around, and the 07-08 is a wonderful compliment season if you get someone with high usage later on.  The 09-10 season is another good compliment season.  Good defense, fantastic efg% at a tier 3 (or tier 2 if you go 10-11), elite rebounding - THIS is what I strive for in the first round of the ODL.  If you can get this outside of the top 10, you're ahead of the game.  Fantastic pick.   Should be pointed out that I've won the ODL with Howard.  Twice, actually.

12. natenoy - Shaquille O'Neal

Pretty much what I just said is repeatable here.  Rebounding isn't as good but the turnovers are WAAAAAY down (both being possession stats, you see that one sort of washes out the disadvantage of the other).  Shaq is one of the most efficient high usage scorers there is.  His 94-95 season has only a 9.0% tov% (good luck finding even CLOSE to that in tier 2 or above usage at 57%+ efg).  His 93-94 season has lots of minutes.  His 99-00 season has great defense and the least fouls.  His 00-01 season gets to the line more per minute than just about anybody else you want to talk about.  Lots of good choices here and is extremely easy to build around.

13. slymonium - Charles Barkley, Marcus Camby

60% efg at tier 3 usage for 40mpg; almost 35% creb at the small forward position, gets to the line like nobody else & makes them while there. 56 defense is not horrible, especially in this league.  I once told the ODL that Chuck was the best player in the sim and should be taken #1.  People scoffed.  I won two championships with him... and then people started taking him #1.  He's not #1 anymore (he wasn't even really back then) but he's still a top 10 value for sure... and sly getting him at 13 is painful (for the entire league).  Sly has won rings with Chuck before and knows how to build around the guy.  Scary.  Camby brings more boards & good defense to the fray.  Helps Chuck shoot better.  Doesn't turn the ball over.  Doesn't foul.  As I said, Sly knows how to build around Chuck.  If you aren't scared yet, get that way.

14. steelers821 - Tim Duncan
, Elton Brand

I don't think this is the reach that others do.  Tier 2 usage, 54% efg, top notch boards & great D... yes, please.  Has another season with more minutes & less boards to use, too.  He doesn't help you win in the foul factor, though, so he might not be a top 15 guy.  But I feel like he's a top 15 to 20 value, so I can't fault you for this.  Brand's another guy with that whole meh efg%/high defense.  When it's the best you can get, I understand that, but when there are guys out there with better, I don't understand the mentality.  Still.. gives you good boards at the 3.  Just not feeling very frightened of this squad.

15. tanguma44 -  Chris Paul, Donyell Marshall

I'm still not huge on cp3 as a guy you build your team around.  He gives you few negatives & quite a few positives, but I'm still not sold on him as the centerpiece.  Lots of guys have won with him, however.  Once upon a time I was a huge Marshall fan.  Not so much anymore.  He is a lot like Paul to me... not many negatives, just not that overwhelming "THIS IS MY GUY" feeling.  I really feel like this was the time to get the dude Paul was to compliment, not a role player.

16. iccoachb - Oscar Robertson, Hakeem Olajuwon

I like Oscar more than cp3.  More minutes, better boards, better efg%, better fta/poss... things I care more about than the ast% & tov%.  Have to use the 54+% efg season, however, or I don't like the pick at all.  Oscar deserves better than Olajuwon.  I've broken the dream down enough in the past... at least nobody wasted a 1st on him this time.

17. badja - Artis Gilmore, Penny Hardaway

Thievery in motion.  Should have gone before Duncan.  His 3rd tier usage, 58% efg%, 39% creb season is no joke.  His 4th tier, 56% efg%, 40%+ one is also not a joke.  Penny combined with either of these is serious business.  I really, really, really like your start, badja.  Scary offense, good possession control, good defense.  Scariest combination by far in the league thus far.

18. malone9975 - Dwyane Wade, Tom Boerwinkle

I've always wanted to build around this guy's 08-09 season but have never had the cojones to pull the trigger.  He brings a lot of good.  Should be able to build a solid possession control/shooting control team with him, but I never see anyone do it right (dh came close, it seems like).  I like the Boerwinkle pick because it leads me to believe you're using Wade at the 1.  His short minutes are the only downer in an otherwise solid pick that really fits well with Wade (great boards, decent d, the lower minutes actually help you financially...).  I'm interested to see how you treat Wade in later rounds.

19. theyard2 - Ben Wallace, Jerry Lucas

If you're not getting one of the top 7 or 8 efg% monsters to build around, I like building around a defensive/rebounding specialist like Wallace (see: my funk52 team).  Really would like to have seen you steer towards an offensive player here in round 2 instead of a guy like Lucas.  Lucas is solid, don't get me wrong, but you've drafted 2 guys and have 1.5 usage points.  Most of the high efg% guys will be gone before you get a chance to grab them (those with few weaknesses, anyway).  You've got good support, but I feel like waiting till round 3 to grab your first scorer is bad news.

20. felonius - Julius Erving

I still don't think he belongs in round 1 despite a plethora of good numbers in important areas.  If you could somehow combine his 81-82 offensive efficiency with his earlier 70s seasons' minutes/boards, he'd be a freaking stud. But you can't, so he's either a mediocre shooting, high volume guy or a limited minutes, decent efg% guy that gives you zero 3s.  He doesn't belong in round 1.  Prove me wrong, primate man.

21. eleibowitz - Bill Russell, Shawn Marion

Anytime you can get 3570 minutes of 44% creb, 70 def at 100% pf/c at pick 21, you've got a good steal.  See: what I said about Big Ben, only add 700 minutes.  I love the Matrix here.  Boards are a little crappy for a 4 where he's 100%, but he works well at 98% for a 3.  I might look at a flex forward so you could perhaps get that extra 2% out of Matrix by starting him at the 4, but you have a ton of flexibility going forth.  The guys after you have 52-53% efg% with good defense.  You have 56% with good defense.  I'll take the latter over the former (bill's only a tier 5 usage guy, so I'm not worried about him hurting you offensively much).

22. coachcroft - Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen

Still not a fan of Garnett.  Someone needs to win it all with him in this league to change my mind, otherwise, he's one of these guys that is a great value on paper but doesn't translate to ultimate success.  Pippen added to the mix is reminiscent of my opinion on Vance's squad:  efg% very meh.  Great defensively, though, and great assists, good on the boards.  Tad had a ton of success with this combo, so that shows you what I know.  I still don't care for mediocre efg%/high defense guys when there are high efg%, high def guys still available.

23. vancem - Magic Johnson, Bill Walton

Frightening to think you got Magic here.  Only concern is that his best overall season is only 52% efg%.  I like his 56.5% efg season a lot, but only at SF in a high ast% theme.  Walton was the reach of all reaches in my mind, but you can't get a guy like him by the time you would have gotten to pick again in round 3.  So far, your efg% is very meh to me.  I don't feel scared of your squad. Yet.

24. dh555 - Jason Kidd
Kevin McHale

Love Kidd, especially on the turn.  Don't have to explain why.  Then combining him with McHale... yes.  Really interested to see how you shore up the board shortage sine you've said you're going to play McHale at the 4.  Extremely efficient combo, both offensively & defensively.  You're set up really well to excel at the next turn, too. 

6/17/2013 9:58 PM (edited)
I really enjoy reading all the evals.
6/16/2013 1:17 AM
6/16/2013 7:47 AM
Great stuff ash, keep your takes going as well if you have time, they are a great read.
6/16/2013 8:00 AM
I was tempted to take Barkley, or another guy still undrafted, because I've never used either in a draft league. I sort of wish I had gone Barkley, but he's just not my kind of first rounder - too many ugly negative numbers. I know he more than makes up for it with rebounding and scoring (and even some assists) but I just couldn't bring myself to do it.
6/16/2013 10:24 AM

Thoughts on how to best utilize Shaq (or players like him) in the sim

I will look at some of his weaknesses in a minute, but I wanted to share my plan for him on defense. I’m sure others have done something similar before but I don’t see this being utilized in any of the current leagues I’m in with a Shaq team. The idea is this: be sure to draft a PF/C with a D rating higher than Shaq’s 80; then change your defensive matchups to make Shaq and his 90% efficiency eligible to guard the PF position. There are two reasons to do this:

1.     Many teams will have at least one dominant scoring big, the likes of Wilt, Kareem etc, many more will also use a big with moderate to low usage who is there for rebounding and/or defensive purposes. SO in a given game a player like Kareem may take 20-25 shots and the low usage guy may take 4 or 5. If you have Shaq and a 90D big alongside him then you have two options: (A) don’t change Shaq’s eligibility settings and he can only guard the C position, so Shaq and his 80D guards Kareem while your 90D guy guards someone that only gets a small handful of possessions; OR (B) let Shaq at 90% and his now 72D guard the guy that can’t really hurt you and have your 90D guy in Kareem’s face the entire game, IMO option B is more likely to result in fewer made shots for the other team.

2.     You also may want to try this to “protect” Shaq from picking up fouls. If Shaq is guarding a player that rarely touches the ball, at least in theory he is FAR less likely to pick up defensive fouls than if he guards a guy who generates 30 or so touches.

 One potential drawback with the above idea is that Shaq already puts you behind in the rebounding department and the low usage player may very well be better on the glass than the high usage guy (of course not likely in Wilt’s case though), so the other team may get a few additional orb’s this way, but I still think the idea is a net positive.

 Shaq’s boards are not “horrid” or anything, but the problem is that the elite rebounding teams in the league will have a combined dreb% close to or above 90%. Shaq is going to give you somewhere between the low to mid 20’s depending on what version of him you choose, so if you try to take a high ast% PG with a dreb% south of 10% you are looking at needing 60% combined dreb from your other three positions, while trying not to give back any of the efg or tov% advantage that Shaq gives you. Trying to accomplish this severely limits the player pool you have to choose from for the remainder of the draft.

 I also think that maximizing the low tov% of Shaq is critical. Perhaps you have to take on some tov% in order to get that 30ast% PG, but you should be extremely mindful of the tov% of every remaining player you add to the team.

 And of course you start off with a very nice efg advantage over a majority of the league, and maintaining this is not as easy as you would like it to be if you are going to address your other needs.

 And this all has to be done with a $47 cap where reaching 19,500 minutes is never easy either.  And that is exactly what makes this league such a challenge, gl to the other 21 teams that don’t have LeBron or Wilt and are thinking about similar issues in building their squads, I feel your pain.

6/16/2013 1:17 PM
I had my choices down to Barkley & Durant, but being as KD moved Bird down a spot on the $$$ list, I decided to give him a shot. 
6/16/2013 1:52 PM

what do you mean when you say: "KD moved Bird down a spot on the $$$ list'?

6/16/2013 1:57 PM
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ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem Topic

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