Bryant - Season 84 (DIII) Topic

Excellent work again.  Thanks for doing this.  I am starting to look forward to your updates as much as I look forward to the Guess reports.  Great Job.
10/25/2012 2:21 PM
Tonight's games to watch:
Wisconsin-Stevens Point vs. Wisconsin-Platteville: winner takes WIAC East Division
Menlo vs. Stillman: winner takes NWC West Division
Remember to check in tomorrow
10/26/2012 5:31 PM
Here are tonight's divisional games where a trip to the CC is still on the line for both teams; the winner will advance to play tomorrow.

#6 Austin @ #25 California Lutheran: winner takes ASC South Division
#24 Guilford @ #20 Bridgewater: winner takes ODAC North Division
#5 MIT @ Hamilton: winner takes NESCAC West Division
King's @ #21 Susquehanna: winner takes MAC East Division 
Rowan @ New Jersey: winner takes NJAC North Division
10/27/2012 9:05 PM (edited)
Thanks for the contribution Bison. I actually realized that I had forgot Carleton vs. St. Olaf in yesterday's games :)
If any of you guys wants to write a "Regular Season Review" or a "CC Games Preview" tonight, please feel free. I don't think I will have the time to do that, but I will write a "Playoff Preview" after the brackets are out.
10/28/2012 5:49 AM
Had a quick look and seems it will be very competitive throughout all brackets. Will prepare the playoffs preview with predictions in the evening, and it should be up here on the forum around midnight ET. Sorry for that but I will not have time to work on it and write it before that.
Tune in for the Preview!
10/29/2012 4:56 PM
Bryant DIII - Season 84 Playoff Preview

Going through the brackets one by one, we will first rank the teams in the individual bracket using Elkhour Power Rankings. The format is Team (overall rating, offense rating-offense rank in this bracket, defense rating-defense rank in this bracket). We will then throw in few comments, and end with Upset Alert and Prediction. We will then compare the 4 brackets and rank them among each other in terms of talent (teams average rating) and competitiveness (standard deviation to show how close the team ratings are to each other)
Sorry no hyperlinks this time as I don't have enough time :S Off We Go!

North Bracket

1. Huntingdon (612, 613-2. 610-1)
2. Ferrum (596, 616-1, 575-2)
3. Susquehanna (571, 566-3, 568-3)
4. Colorado College (547, 565-4, 529-7)
5. Carleton (542, 546-5, 538-4)
6. Otterbein (538, 539-6, 537-5)
7. Bluffton (533, 536-7, 530-6)
8. Wilmington (510, 515-8, 505-8)

This bracket features the last 3-time national championship runner-up and the current #1 team in the nation Huntingdon, the best offense in DIII Ferrum, last seasons final four qualifier Colorado College, and last season quarter finalists Carleton College. Huntingdon and Ferrum are on a roll, and undefeated, while Susquehanna and Colorado College only suffered one loss during the season.
While they don't have the easiest of draws, Huntingdon and Ferrum are not only the best 2 teams in this bracket, but the best 2 teams in the nation right now.

Upset Alert: (7) Bluffton vs. (2) Colorado College
Prediction: Ferrum beats Huntingdon in the bracket final

South Bracket

1. Loras (578, 574-3, 582-1)
2. MIT (578, 583-2, 573-2)
3. California Lutheran (570, 593-1, 547-4)
4. Gettysburg (562, 559-4, 566-3)
5. Menlo (547, 557-5, 537-5)
6. Trinity (TX) (527, 521-6, 533-6)
7. Bridgewater (VA) (500, 505-7, 495-7)
8. Waynesburg (492, 492-8, 492-8)

This bracket has 2 of the last 3 national champions in MIT and Loras (they have been playing each other in the playoffs for the last 3 seasons!), air attack Menlo lead by Paul Lewis, the powerful Gettysburg, and the much under-seeded California Lutheran. While Menlo is the only undefeated team in this bracket, MIT is pretty close to being another one, dropping only one game to a SIM in a huge upset. Menlo have been setting offensive records all season, but they will be put to the test when they play great defenses like Loras or Gettysburg.

Upset Alert: (8) California Lutheran vs. (1) MIT
Prediction: Although I have them on the upset alert, but that's why it's called an alert, I still think MIT will come on top on CLU, and then beat Loras once again to win the bracket.

East Bracket:

1. Concordia (WI) (570, 575-1, 565-1)
2. Whittier (539, 538-3, 540-2)
3. Macalester (530, 552-2, 508-8)
4. Curry (523, 523-6, 523-4)
5. Norwich (522, 525-5, 520-4)
6. Wisconsin-Stevens Point (522, 530-4, 514-5)
7. Albion (513, 511-7, 515-6)
8. St. Norbert (507, 504-8, 511-7)

While not the best bracket in terms of talent, it is the most competitive one (see below). We have the defending national champions Concordia (WI) and 7 teams that are very close from each other in terms of ratings. Should be very interesting.

Upset Alert: (7) Whittier vs. (2) Macalester
Prediction: Concordia (WI) beats Whittier to win the bracket

West Bracket:

1. Mount Union (579, 592-1, 566-3)
2. Linfield (572, 578-4, 567-2)
3. St. Olaf (566, 588-2, 544-6)
4. Austin (564, 586-3, 543-7)
5. Greenville (561, 565-5, 557-4)
6. Merchant Marine (559, 564-6, 553-5)
7. Washington (MO) (556, 542-7, 569-1)
8. Hiram (480, 478-8, 482-8)

One of the best rated defenses in the country Washington (MO) faces some of the most prolific offenses in Austin, Linfield, St. Olaf, and Mount Union. The bracket also features recent national champions in Greenville and Merchant Marine, as well as the newcomer Hiram. Austin is undefeated, Mount Union only lost to a SIM in a big upset, and Linfield only lost to Menlo by 1 point in the conference championship!

Upset Alert: (7) Greenville vs. (2) Mount Union
Prediction: Linfield beats St. Olaf to win the bracket

Brackets Comparison:

Ranking by talent (average of teams ratings):
1. North: 556
2. West: 555
3. South: 544
4. East: 528

Ranking by competitiveness (standard deviation of teams ratings):
1. East: 1.95
2. West: 3.10
3. North: 3.41
4. South: 3.45

Final Four Prediction:

Well, as per above, we have Ferrum vs. MIT and Linfield vs. Concordia (WI). I pick Ferrum to beat Linfield in the national championship game. 
10/30/2012 2:05 AM
This is very nicely done.  Great read.  Thanks elkhour.
10/30/2012 7:06 AM
What Huntingdon is not making a 4th trip to the final??????? I don't know about these  GL to everyone.
10/30/2012 12:28 PM
Wow, a few top teams bowed out in the first....including the last 3 national champs.  There are only 2 teams left from your final 4 prediction.  Great write up as always.  Loving the thread so faar.
10/30/2012 2:42 PM
Well, elkhour called the upset. My QB, who had only thrown two interceptions all season, gets picked three times by Cal Lutheran.

Frankly, with only seven seniors, I did not expect MIT to set the world on fire this season anyway. Good luck to those still playing.
10/30/2012 2:53 PM
Our Fr kicker got us once again, missing 2 FG in regular time, and taking us to OT. Couldn't finally get it done, but again looking at the bright side, the last time we lost to Curry in the first round, we won the national championship the following season. GL to those who got past the first round, especially my good old friend and conference rival JJ (Greenville), as I've heard that this is his final season here before he moves up to DII (Gonna miss those rivalry games man!). 
The East bracket looks particularly interesting now, with Concordia eliminated, all the other teams are very close, and all of them are not "regular" contenders. Following up on Conrodia's "surprise" last year, we will have another "newcomer" in the Final Four out of the East bracket this year. Interesting stuff.
10/30/2012 3:38 PM
Interesting pairings in the regional finals: 1 seed vs. 3 seed, 5 vs. 7, 5 vs. 7, and 6 vs. 8.
10/31/2012 3:09 PM
Yea that's pretty much what happens when 12 of the Top 16 teams lose in the first round tribe :) I'm a bit surprised at the outcome but not that much though:
Ferrum vs. Huntingdon got that right before the start
Cal Lutheran were VERY under-seeded for me, had they been facing someone other than MIT, I would have expected them to be here by now, so I'm not very surprised here
I had Whittier in the regional finals, except that I had them against me, and I'm a bit surprised I didn't make it past the first round I must admit
I also had Linfield going to the regional finals, and winning the bracket too. And seeing Greenville here doesn't surprise me at all, I had picked them to beat me for the IBFC before the season stared.
Overall, looks like I can still hit my NC prediction Ferrum vs. Linfield as both are still there. Huntingdon vs. Ferrum tomorrow is gonna be a real showdown! Arguably the best 2 teams in DIII Bryant talent wise this season.
10/31/2012 3:27 PM
Man elkhour, I just noticed the thread. Could not stop reading from start to finish. Fantastic job man! I may have to stick around a few more seasons to get more recognition, LOL. Seriously though, this is great reading and good luck to the final eight teams!
10/31/2012 7:32 PM

Poor superv ... that means he is going to stay in D3 and beat up on us for another year.

Get a load of Albion ... six non-sim recruits on a 50-man roster and they are in the Final Four.

11/1/2012 4:02 PM
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Bryant - Season 84 (DIII) Topic

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