I’m showing the way I categorize players into my rating system.  The threshold for having a championship level team has generally been around 25 points.  The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Ben Mukai (Sr) Good        

Jack Stevens (Sr) Good

Arthur Turner (Soph) Capable Starter

Claud Bruzewski (Fr) Role Player

Sylvester Dickerson (Fr) Role Player

SF) Willie Purtell (Sr) Good

PF) Barry Denison (Jr) Quality Backup

“Old School” Wilfred Beamer (Soph) Role Player

John Hatch (Fr) Role Player

Joseph Kearns (Fr) Role Player

C) Ricky Ricky Humphreys (Soph) Star

Terrance Persinger (Fr) Capable Starter

That adds up to 30

There are 18 teams with the grade of 25 or higher in my ranking system.  Usually I determine a team that starts at 25+ to mean they have a chance at a championship. 

1-#3-Lincoln-38

2-#4-Wilmington-33

3-#5-Incarnate Word-31

4-#6-Oklahoma Panhandle St.-30

5(t)-#1-Fort Lewis-29

5(t)-#2-Mount Olive-29

5(t)-#8-S.W. Minnesota St.-29

8-#11-Henderson St.-27

9(t)-#9-Bemidji St.-26

9(t)-#10-Missouri, St. Louis-26

9(t)-#13-Lewis-26

9(t)-#19-Shippensburg U.-26

9(t)-#21-Bellarmine-26

9(t)-NR-Drury-26

9(t)-NR-Texas A&M, Kingsville-26

16(t)-#12-Tiffin-25

16(t)-#20-Sonoma St.-25

16(t)-#24-Cal St. Poly-25

    Conference Preview
Team Ratings

1. Lincoln-40

2(t). Incarnate Word-31

2(t). OPSU-31

4. Drury-28

5(t). Montevallo-26

5(t). St. Mary’s-26

7(t). N. Alabama-24

7(t). St. Edward’s-24

9. W, Alabama-22

10. Valdosta St.-20

11. W. Florida-18

12. Rockhurst-17

Conference Stars

PG-                 William Abron (Sr)-W. Alabama

                        Peter Bruce (Sr)-Linoln

                        Chris Cavitt (Sr)-Drury

                        Adam Hodgkinson (Soph)-Incarnate Word

                        Ben Mukai (Sr)-OPSU

                        Jack Stevens (Sr)-OPSU

SG-                 Tom Baird (Sr)-Montevallo

                        Roland Baker (Jr)-W. Alabama

                      Lonnie Brown (Sr)-Lincoln

                      Daniel Masson (Sr)-St. Edward’s

                      Bryan Sak (Sr)-N. Alabama

SF-                  Norman Bartel (Sr)-St. Mary’s

                        Willie Purtell (Sr)-OPSU

PF-                  Franklin Collins (Sr)-Incarnate Word

                        Anthony Robinson (Sr)-Drury

C-                    Charles Davie (Sr)-Lincoln

                      Ricky Humphreys (Sr)-OPSU

                      Patrick Jackson (Sr)-Lincoln

                        Richard Powell (Sr)-N. Alabama

                        Ron Powers (Jr)-Incarnate Word

                        William Sutton (Jr)- Lincoln

Conference Superstars

PG-                 Chris Cavitt (Sr)-Drury

SG-                 Lonnie Brown (Sr)-Lincoln

SF-                  Norman Bartel (Sr)-St. Mary’s

C-                    Ricky Humphreys (Sr)-OPSU

Conference stars in pictures (1st thing that comes up in google search.  Interesting that some have changed just since last season)
William Abron (W. Alabama)  
Peter Bruce (Lincoln)  
Chris Cavit(Drury) 
Adam Hodgkinson (Incarnate Wordd) 
Ben Mukai(OPSU)  
Jack Stevens (OPSU) 
Tom Baird (Montevallo) 

Pictures cont...
Roland Baker (W. Alabama) 
Lonnie Brown (Lincoln) 
Daniel Masson (St. Edward's) 
Bryan Sak (N. Alabama) 
Norman Bartel (St. Mary's) 
Willie Purtell (OPSU) 
Franklin Collins (Incarnate Word) 
Anthony Robinson (Drury) 

Pictures Cont...
Charles Davie (Lincoln) 
Ricky Humphreys (OPSU) 
Patrick Jackson (Lincoln) 
Richard Powell (N. Alabama) 
Ron Powers (Incarnate Word) 
William Sutton (Lincoln) 

Lincoln with 38... wow thats the highest ive seen in your rankings TW48-1

Out of curiosity, do you want to lay out exactly how you rated my players?

Posted by backboy13 on 12/6/2012 1:19:00 PM (view original):
Out of curiosity, do you want to lay out exactly how you rated my players?

I have a few different ratings sets that I run through formulas.  I have one for guards, one for sf's, one for the general forward type, and one for traditional bigs.  Whichever one a player rates highest in is what i use.  I probably need to add a couple more, but haven't gotten around to doing it yet.  They are all weighted and scaled so that the each category has the same ceiling.  The highest point total possible is around 2200  The 1s in my ratings are 1000 and below, 2s are 1000 to >1100, 3s are 1100 to >1200, 4s are 1200 to >1300, and 5s are 1300+.  For instance, my center is in the low 1300s, but he receives a 5.  This guy is also a 5 even though he is over 1400 in my formula. 
So, obviously there is some room for error and i've noticed it especially benefits my team since I recruit to the formula.  That and I think raw talent is probably about 40% of team building.  I'd say the other 60% is 40% cohesion and 20% is game planning.  I'm thinking about using it to predict the NT this season.  If I had to guess it would be 60-75% correct in measuring that, so, there is obviously a lot of factors in play.  I've thought about getting together with people to come up with a formula to measure team cohesion, but haven't done that yet.

Sorry for that side information, but to your team.  I don't save each teams breakdown, but i can show you where it would place your guys right now and i'll place *'s by guys who will go up by the end of the year:

The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Wayne Cline (Sr) Star        

Henry Wilson (Sr) Capable Starter

James Reasoner (Soph) Capable Starter *(one of him and Wilson will advance to the next level by the end of the season)

William Steward (Soph) Role Player*

Michael Bryant (Fr) Quality Backup

SF) Matthew Allen (Jr) Capable Starter

Scott Yates (Soph) Role Player

Alan Berndt (Fr) Role Player

PF) Harvey Tesch (Sr) Good

James Richardson (Soph) Quality Backup

C) Alan Jude (Jr) Capable Starter

Lorenzo Armor (Fr) Role Player (redshirts are role players by default)

That adds up to 29 and will be a 31 or 32 by the end of the year.

Also, I determine a 2 or better as capable of competing at an elite level.  So, you are 8 deep and will be 9 deep by the end of the year.

This also means you rate highest out of teams coached by the anti-Christ 

Richardson and Stewart have been producing above their indicated levels, probably due to playing against backups, but I'd be interested in seeing your formulas!

I love that Hodgkinson's photo came from "mugshots.com".

Ok so I said I was going to see how well my formula worked at predicting game s in the NT.  I forgot to do the 1^st round so I’ll go back and do that now.  I’ll show 2 attributes for 1^st round games and 1 attribute for 2^nd round games (2^nd) will be added after games are played).  1^st attribute is point differential in my formula.  This should not correspond to actual score, but will more like a confidence rating.  The 2^nd will be the actual score.

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v16	Lincoln/Michigan Tech	23-Lincoln	99-73 Lincoln (1-0)
3v14	Fort Lewis/Bridgeport	16-Fort Lewis	96-75 Fort Lewis (2-0)
2v15	Mount Olive/St. Leo	13-Mount Olive	70-55 Mount Olive (3-0)
2v15	Wilmington/Emporia St.	11-Wilmington	89-75 Wilmington (4-0)
1v16	Incarnate Word/Humboldt St.	11-Incarnate Word	68-59 Incarnate Word (5-0)
5v12	S.W. Minn St./Mercyhurst	10-S.W. Minn St.	64-61 Mercyhurst (5-1)
4v13	TA&M, Kingsville/Univ. of the Sciences	10-TA&M, Kingsville	62-59 Univ. of the Sciences (5-2)
4v13	OK Panhandle St./UP, Johnstown	10-OK Panhandle St.	96-81 OK Panhandle St. (6-2)
1v16	CSU, Stanislaus/Florida Tech	9-CSU, Stanislaus	79-77 CSU, Stanislaus (7-2)
4v13	St. Edward's/Concordia, St. Paul	8-St. Edward's	73-59 St. Edward's (8-2)
3v14	Drury/St. Anslem	8-Drury	66-50 Drury (9-2)
2v15	Barry/Cal. Davis	7-Barry	95-85 Barry (10-2)
3v14	Shippensburg/D.C.	7-Shippensburg	98-76 Shippensburg (11-2)
1v16	Sonoma St./Clarion	6-Sonoma St.	89-52 Sonoma St. (12-2)
8v9	N. Florida/Kentucky St.	5-N. Florida	75-71 Kentucky St. (12-3)
3v14	Bellarmine/Longwood	5-Bellarmine	74-69 Bellarmine (13-3)
8v9	UA, Monticello/CSU, Dominguez Hills	4-UA, Monticello	93-90 UA, Monticello (14-3)
7v10	Henderson St./Lees-McRae	4-Henderson St.	75-67 Henderson St. (15-3)
8v9	Tiffin/UPR, Rio Piedras	4-Tiffin	75-68 Tiffin (16-3)
4v13	Oakland City/Charleston	4-Oakland City	102-77 Oakland City (17-3)
5v12	UM, St. Louis/Ohio Valley	3-UM, St. Louis	67-63 Ohio Valley (17-4)
7v10	Lewis/San Francisco St.	3-Lewis	86-79 Lewis (18-4)
6v11	Assumption/Catawba	2-Catawba	85-74 Assumption (18-5)
2v15	Bemidji St./St. Mary's	2-Bemidji St.	67-61 Bemidji St. (19-5)
6v11	Shepherd/Washburn	1-Shepherd	90-84(OT)-Shepherd (20-5)
7v10	W. Alabama/St. Cloud St.	1-St. Cloud St.	65-57 St. Cloud St. (21-5)
5v12	New Haven/W. Georgia	1-New Haven	68-53 New Haven (22-5)
7v10	Fayetteville St./Co. School of Mines	1-Fayetteville St.	68-54 Fayetteville St. (23-5)
6v11	Tampa/UN, Omaha	1-Tampa	70-63 Un, Omaha (23-6)
5v12	Cal St. Poly/Metropolitan St.	1-Metropolitan St.	101-89 Metropolitan St. (24-6)
6v11	LIU, Southampton/N. Alabama	1-LIU, Southampton	86-77 LIU, Southampton (25-6)
8v9	Wingate/Tarleton St.	Push	67-62 Tarleton St. (25-6-1)
6v3	Shepherd/Fort Lewis	11-Fort Lewis
1v8	Lincoln/UA, Monticello	9-Lincoln
1v9	Sonoma St./Tarleton St.	8-Sonoma St.
7v2	Henderson St./Wilmington	8-Wilmington
1v9	CSU, Stanislaus/Kentucky St.	7-CSU, Stanislaus
5v4	New Haven/OK Panhandle St.	6-OK Panhandle St.
6v3	Assumption/Bellarmine	6-Bellarmine
7v2	Fayetteville St./Bemidji St.	5-Bemidji St.
11v3	UN, Omaha/Drury	5-Drury
1v8	Incarnate Word/Tiffin	5-Incarnate Word
6v3	LIU, Southampton/Shippensburg	5-Shippensburg
12v4	Ohio Valley/St. Edward's	4-St. Edward's
7v2	Lewis/Mount Olive	4-Mount Olive
12v4	Metropolitan St./Oakland City	2-Metropolitan St.
12v13	Mercyhurst/Univ. of the Sciences	1-Mercyhurst
10v2	St. Cloud St./Barry	Push

I did well for the 1st set of games but expect much worse records as the talent differentials shrink.  Still my 25-6-1 is better than following the seeds 23-9.  That said even one tourney will be a low sample size.

Round 2/Sweet 16

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
6v3	Shepherd/Fort Lewis	11-Fort Lewis	108-73 Fort Lewis (26-6-1)
1v8	Lincoln/UA, Monticello	9-Lincoln	86-70 Lincoln (27-6-1)
1v9	Sonoma St./Tarleton St.	8-Sonoma St.	52-50 Sonoma St. (28-6-1)
7v2	Henderson St./Wilmington	8-Wilmington	60-50 Wilmington (29-6-1)
1v9	CSU, Stanislaus/Kentucky St.	7-CSU, Stanislaus	80-70 CSU, Stanislaus (30-6-1)
5v4	New Haven/OK Panhandle St.	6-OK Panhandle St.	68-60 OK Panhandle St. (31-6-1)
6v3	Assumption/Bellarmine	6-Bellarmine	64-41 Bellarmine (32-6-1)
7v2	Fayetteville St./Bemidji St.	5-Bemidji St.	64-54 Bemidji St. (33-6-1)
11v3	UN, Omaha/Drury	5-Drury	69-55 Drury (34-6-1)
1v8	Incarnate Word/Tiffin	5-Incarnate Word	67-60 Incarnate Word (35-6-1)
6v3	LIU, Southampton/Shippensburg	5-Shippensburg	99-92(OT) Shippensburg (36-6-1)
12v4	Ohio Valley/St. Edward's	4-St. Edward's	63-56(OT) Ohio Valley (36-7-1)
7v2	Lewis/Mouth Olive	4-Mount Olive	80-62 Mount Olive (37-7-1)
12v4	Metropolitan St./Oakland City	2-Metropolitan St.	78-64 Oakland City (37-8-1)
12v13	Mercyhurst/Univ. of the Sciences	1-Mercyhurst	54-53 Univ. of the Sciences (37-9-1)
10v2	St. Cloud St./Barry	Push	81-80 St. Cloud St. (37-9-2)
1v13	Lincoln/Univ. of the Sciences	17-Lincoln
1v12	Sonoma St./Ohio Valley	9-Sonoma St.
3v2	Drury/Wilmington	8-Wilmington
3v10	Fort Lewis/St. Cloud St.	6-Fort Lewis
1v4	Incarnate Word/Oakland City	5-Incarnate Word
3v2	Shippensburg/Mount Olive	5-Mount Olive
1v4	CSU, Stanislaus/OK Panhandle St.	3-OK Panhandle St.
3v2	Bellarmine/Bemidji St.	3-Bemidji St.

So, i'm up to 37-9-2(80.43%).  The seeding is 36-12(75%).  My game is one that I think shows that my teams are not as well judged because I recruit directly to this formula.  So, i'm overvalued 2-3 points most seasons.  That put with how the opposing team is set up makes me believe I am not actually more likely to win, but have probably a 1/3 chance of winning and a 1/4 chance of being blown out.

Sweet 16/elite 8

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
1v13	Lincoln/Univ. of the Sciences	17-Lincoln	61-77 Lincoln (38-9-2)
1v12	Sonoma St./Ohio Valley	9-Sonoma St.	68-66(OT) Ohio Valley (38-10-2)
3v2	Drury/Wilmington	8-Wilmington	47-35 Wilmington (39-10-2)
3v10	Fort Lewis/St. Cloud St.	6-Fort Lewis	90-70 Fort Lewis (40-10-2)
1v4	Incarnate Word/Oakland City	5-Incarnate Word	73-54 Incarnate Word (41-10-2)
3v2	Shippensburg/Mount Olive	5-Mount Olive	75-60 Mount Olive (42-10-2)
1v4	CSU, Stanislaus/OK Panhandle St.	3-OK Panhandle St.	82-75 OK Panhandle St. (43-10-2)
3v2	Bellarmine/Bemidji St.	3-Bemidji St.	73-63 Bellarmine (43-11-2)
12v2	Ohio Valley/Wilmington	15-Wilmington
1v3	Lincoln/Fort Lewis	7-Lincoln
4v3	OK Panhandle St./Bellarmine	5-OK Panhandle St.
1v2	Incarnate Word/Mount Olive	1-Mount Olive

I'm at 43-11-2(79.67) and seeding is 41-15(73.21).  Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow as my formula is picking 2 upsets, but both with low confidence.  Ohio Valley has pulled up upsets when I had 3, 4, and now 9 confidence points on the opposing team.  Will be interesting to see if they can cover the 15 confidence points versus Wilmington. 

Elite 8/Final4

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
12v2	Ohio Valley/Wilmington	15-Wilmington	54-49 Wilmington (44-11-2)
1v3	Lincoln/Fort Lewis	7-Lincoln	92-83 Lincoln (45-11-2)
4v3	OK Panhandle St./Bellarmine	5-OK Panhandle St.	79-78 Bellarmine (45-12-2)
1v2	Incarnate Word/Mount Olive	1-Mount Olive	70-63 Incarnate Word (45-13-2)
1v3	Lincoln/Bellarmine	11-Lincoln

2v1

Wilmington/Incarnate Word

3-Wilmington

Formatting Screwed Up

Title Possibilities

Seed	Teams	Formula Pt Diff	Actual Score
3v2	Bellarmine/Wilmington	8-Wilmington
1v1	Lincoln/Incarnate Word	6-Lincoln
3v1	Bellarmine/Incarnate Word	5-Incarnate Word
1v2	Lincoln/Wilmington	3-Lincoln