Your fake numbers have no basis in reality.
More people with insurance realistically leads to more physicals, more cholesteral tests, and more STD screenings. Diabetes, heart disease, and cancer are all caught earlier and the cost of care is reduced.
Less people with insurance means more small problems get ignored. A few of those small problems will turn into big problems that are much more expensive to treat.
Some people may go to the doctor for things that could have been treated at home, but in general, going to the doctor sucks and people avoid it naturally. The insurance companies have actuarial tables that tell them this stuff. They WANT people to go to the doctor for minor issues because paying a thousand of $300 bills is still significantly cheaper than paying just a couple $800,000 bills.