Bubblewatch day 9
Ok, it feels like there are a few teams in the top ten, I would have not thought there. And quite a few teams that should, but will probably not make it to the playoffs. Also: two seasons ago, not a single SIM AI made the playoffs. But this season there are better SIMs than in a while.
CIAA
Same two team story that we knew from seasons past.
Lock: NCCU (9-0, WIS: 2 SOS:27)
High SOS, beaten top oponents, nothing difficult left.
Should be in:
Virginia State (7-2, WIS: 22 SOS: 33)
Yeah the WIS ranking is not awesome, but neither are the remaining oponents.
GLIAC:
Should be in:
Grand Valley State (9-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 21): Did not make the playoffs last season, and this season on course for some awesome seeding. I cannot be the only one who is impressed and surprised by wins over Ferris, Edinboro and Findlay. Basically one win away from lock status.
Ferris State (8-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 13): A decentish schedule with one loss, the one to GVSU. Things would have to go weird for them to completely miss the playoffs. Playing GVSU in the CCG again seems more likely.
Work left to do:
Saginaw Valley State (8-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 57): Currently things are looking good, and even a loss to GVSU tomorrow would likely be survivable, but more than that would likely not be sustainable.
Wayne State (7-2, WIS: 39 SOS: 105): In theory this SIM could make it in, but it would probably take a undefeated rest of the season, unlikely to happen. But the win over Findlay makes it at least conceivable.
Findlay (6-3, WIS: 40, SOS: 64): That double overtime loss to GVSU yesterday hurt. The loss to Wayne state hurt more. Findlay needs to right the ship before playing Ferris.
GSC
Nobody is a should be in, but several teams will likely be soon.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Central Arkansas (7-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 44). Still in it, currently on the right side, but a loss to West Georgia (or anyone else) and it becomes toss up.
West Georgia (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 67): It is about time West Georgia makes the playoffs… but it is far from certain it will happen. The game on day 12 with UCA looms large and there are other hurdles like West Alabama and Harding .
Delta State (9-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 90): Close to a should be in or lock, but with two real games still left, delta still needs to make sure things are a OK
Valdosta State (8-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 43): Are looking good, but a win over Delta tomorrow would make things much more certain.
Arkansas Monticello (6-3, WIS: 46, SOS: 85): All was good. And then conference play started and UAM just could not manage to create enough offense to beat any of three oponents that were very much in reach. This leaves UAM with the necessity to in out from here.
LSC
Locks:
Should be in:
SE Oklahoma Durant (8-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 17) :
Only one real opponent left. Once that is over, SEO will be a lock
Work left to do:
Central Oklahoma (4-5, WIS: 38, SOS: 3): UCO seems to have overscheduled for this season. It was a brutal OOC, and just about nothing went right, and then came the additional loss to TAMC. It feels like UCO needs to beat SEO to get an at large.
Abilene Christian (7-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 47): Saturday will bring the game vs TAMC for the division. I don’t think ACU would miss the playoffs if they lost that one, but why risk it?
Texas A&M commerce (9-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 79): TAMC is 9-0 for the first time under phimutau. Playoff wise things are looking good, at least two losses would still be sustainable.
MIAA
Work left to do:
NW Missouri State (6-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 12): Well, tendentially the SOS will decrease so winning out would be the safe play. That will not be a gimme though.
Lock Haven (7-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 45): Well, I don’t think anyone in the MIAA is in much better position, that does not mean that it is a simple task to win out. But a loss in the CCG would likely be ok.
Will need help to get an at large:
Truman State (5-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 23): Despite a currently decent WIS ranking things are not looking awesome. Definitely needs to win out from here.
NCC
Its simple. This is a one team conference, two maybe if somebody steals a bit.
Locks:
Work to do:
Humboldt State (9-0, WIS: 24, SOS: 139): I am not impressed by Humboldt (that schedule was a total cakewalk), but Humboldt does not need to impress to make the playoffs, just hold serve. A win tomorrow over western and this is a should be in.
NE-10
One of those conferences where I think a SIM will make it in.
Should be in:
Work left to do:
Bryant (8-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 71): Decently comfortable, but a loss to Long Island would eliminate a lot of the error margin.
Long Island (8-1, WIS: 33, SOS: 122): An underwhelming OOC schedule and a loss to a tough SIM, mean that even 8-1 CLong Island has not much margin for error. Maybe a loss to Bryant would be sustainable, but it feels like a coin toss.
Stonehill (7-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 35): Stonehill played a medium decent OOC, and then upset Long Island. If they manage to win out until the CCG they’d be safely in, a loss before would put them close to the cut line.
NSIC
Locks:
Minnesota Crookston (9-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 14): No comment needed.
Work left to do:
Northern State (8-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 84): With the win over WVSC things look good, but there is not quite enough space to be able to afford a loss before the CCG and be comfortable.
West Virginia State (5-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 5): Would not really be close to the mark, if the SOS would not be so high, but it is bound to decrease now. If they win out I’d tend to say its not good enough, but I am not sure.
Need help to get an at large:
Minnesota Duluth (5-4, WIS: 51, SOS: 50): Would have to beat UMC to keep having a shot.
PSAC
Locks:
Should be in:
Millersville (9-0, WIS: 5, SOS: 34): there are still three tough games left. But things would have to go super weird for Millersville to miss the playoffs.
Mansfield (8-1, WIS:4 SOS:1): I still can’t belive this team missed the playoffs last season. The benefit of the number one SOS is that a loss is not really a problem. There would have to be at least 3 more, before Mansfield would have to think about sweating.
Work left to do:
East Stroudsburg (9-0, WIS: 17, SOS: 94): In any other conference this would likely be a should be in.
Edinboro (6-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 19): In the west, which is a lot weaker than the east, they might still be the favorite, but the line between making the CCG and missing the playoffs remains thin. Todays W over California was a big step in the right direction though.
Slippery Rock (6-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 11): The zombie team had a break today and tomorrow, but can take maximally one more loss vs good competition.
Kutztown (8-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 48): It is a lot better SOS this season than last. But the PSAC east is a murderers row, and beating at least one of them is a necessity.
Indiana (5-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 10): If things go wrong vs Edinboro tomorrow, then it will not look too good.
California (5-4, WIS: 35, SOS: 6): Missed a chance to impress today. Now needs to beat either Indiana or Slippery Rock.
West Chester (5-4, WIS: 53, SOS: 78), Clarion (5-4 WIS: 49, SOS: 53): there are plenty of chances to impress… but they probably needs to take them all.
RMAC
Lock:
Western State (8-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 22): Yeah there is a loss here. But there is just nothing that could scare a team like this left on the schedule.
Work left to do:
Colorado Mines (7-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 72): the remainder of the schedule is fluff. The SOS will get worse, but at least CMU will not lose a game. It should end up being close.
SAC
The SAC has already done a good bit of cannibalism, and is probably gonna have few bids as a consequence.
Should be in:
Mars Hill (6-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 36): I thought Mars Hill was progressing… but ranked 6th!
Work to do:
Glennville (8-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 42): Looking good. At least one loss would be unproblematic.
Carson-Newman (7-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 80): Wins over WVIT and Lenoir Rhyne could not quite cancel out the loss to Newberry. CN is currently on the right side, but I think a loss to Mars Hill would put them square on the bubble, tendency bad side.
Lenoir-Rhyne (5-4, WIS: 42, SOS: 16): Avoided disaster vs Newberry. It feels like a win over Lane should have put them close, but the schedule might have been a tad too tough and the loss to Carson Newman weighs heavy. LR probably needs to win or at least make the CCG game, but that includes a game vs Glennville.
Tusculum (5-4, WIS: 44, SOS: 25): Definitely needs to make at least the championship game, and day 12 and 13 will bring tough oponents.
Need Help:
West Virginia Tech (3-6, WIS: 45, SOS: 2): Definitely playing against eelimination in the game vs Newberry tomorrow. Also has to be afraid, that the SOS will drop more than a few spots, which would also eliminate them
Newberry (3-6, WIS: 48, SOS:8): IF the SIM could pull of the surprises (and this is one of the stronger SIMs) there may be a chance.
SIAC
Locks:
Should be in:
Quincy (9-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 61), Kentucky State (7-2, WIS:18, SOS:28), Lane (7-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 31): Unless somebody stumbles, it is all about making the CCG and wining the conference for these 3.
With imagination:
Saint Josephs (6-3, WIS: 47, SOS: 67): The WIS ranking and schedule says they have a theoretical chance. Realism says they don’t.