Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 2:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bigal888 on 7/20/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
MikeT: How do playoffs come into play then?  Along your logic that there is some upper limit to the amount of pitches thrown...if a theoretical pitcher uses those all up on game 162 of the season, shouldn't he be unavailable for the playoffs?

This is actually the smartest question that has been proposed.

I think fatigue resets.   32 teams participate in ST and the regular season.  12 participate in the post-season.  I don't think a seperate program or reset, especially since a new schedule is created, is out of the question.    Now, as much as I'd like to say I know this for a fact, I do not.   I've never had a position player get more fatigued during the playoffs but I generally have them, and my pitchers, at 100%.   I've had position players bounce between 99 and 100 at the end of the regular season who played the post-season at 100%.  And I've had guys enter the playoffs at 98% and never hit 97%.    Maybe the extra off day did it, maybe I'm right.

But, again, I don't think any of us uses our pitchers to 100% capacity.   I know I don't. 

We absolutely know two things don't happen when the playoffs start.  A player's fatigue does not jump from a lower number to 100% and a pitcher will continue to fatigue in the same manner as they did during the regular season (otherwise you could start your ace 5 times in a row and not see a problem).  It is not a large leap to believe a position player will also fatigue in the same manner as they did prior to the post-season.

Therefore, there must be a fatigue pattern in the post-season and seeing as it is impossible to predict which players will be in the post-season prior to the start of the season, all players must be treated the same at the beginning of the season.  To fit in your model Mike, that would require every pitcher to be "loaded" with playoff innings prior to the start of the season such that they could have the necessary stamina to pitch in the post season.  And I highly doubt they get "loaded" with these innings just prior to the start of the post-season, because then we would see a dramatic change in their fatigue overnight.

With that being said, a specific playoff "reset" to a players fatigue cycles does not fit logically with everything else.

I have a guy in the playoffs now, who is recovering at the same rate as he was all year. He did not experience a drop off in recovery what so ever.

I will start tracking this on my other team (45 games in)

If I am wrong, I want to know about it, and will share the results gladly right or wrong.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 3:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 3:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 3:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 2:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bigal888 on 7/20/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
MikeT: How do playoffs come into play then?  Along your logic that there is some upper limit to the amount of pitches thrown...if a theoretical pitcher uses those all up on game 162 of the season, shouldn't he be unavailable for the playoffs?

This is actually the smartest question that has been proposed.

I think fatigue resets.   32 teams participate in ST and the regular season.  12 participate in the post-season.  I don't think a seperate program or reset, especially since a new schedule is created, is out of the question.    Now, as much as I'd like to say I know this for a fact, I do not.   I've never had a position player get more fatigued during the playoffs but I generally have them, and my pitchers, at 100%.   I've had position players bounce between 99 and 100 at the end of the regular season who played the post-season at 100%.  And I've had guys enter the playoffs at 98% and never hit 97%.    Maybe the extra off day did it, maybe I'm right.

But, again, I don't think any of us uses our pitchers to 100% capacity.   I know I don't. 

Did somebody hack your account?  Because this is by far the dumbest thing you've posted today.  I'd like to give you more credit than that.

Fatigue definitely carries over into the playoffs, there is no reset.  If you've ever had to start your ace in game 162 to earn the WC2, you'd notice that he's not at 100% to start the first round.  And if you pushed your position players hard down the stretch because you were trying to earn that WC2 spot, you're not going to see them magically go from 93% in game 162 to 100% for playoff game 1.

Fatigue is less of an issue during the playoffs because of all the off-days, so there is more recovery, but there definitely is a carry-over from the regular season, and it seems to follow the exact same model that is used for spring training and the regular season.

Had you been capable of reading the entire paragraph, I know that's a lot of words, you'd notice that AT NO POINT did I say "Reset to 100%".    

Please have someone read the whole thing to you.

Well, if it doesn't reset to 100%, then what would it reset to?  And why?  And does that make any sense?

New schedule created, max pitches/PA "for season" resets.  Doesn't mean the current fatigue level resets.    The playoffs are a "new" season.

Do you really not understand this?

Posted by bigal888 on 7/20/2012 3:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 2:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bigal888 on 7/20/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
MikeT: How do playoffs come into play then?  Along your logic that there is some upper limit to the amount of pitches thrown...if a theoretical pitcher uses those all up on game 162 of the season, shouldn't he be unavailable for the playoffs?

This is actually the smartest question that has been proposed.

I think fatigue resets.   32 teams participate in ST and the regular season.  12 participate in the post-season.  I don't think a seperate program or reset, especially since a new schedule is created, is out of the question.    Now, as much as I'd like to say I know this for a fact, I do not.   I've never had a position player get more fatigued during the playoffs but I generally have them, and my pitchers, at 100%.   I've had position players bounce between 99 and 100 at the end of the regular season who played the post-season at 100%.  And I've had guys enter the playoffs at 98% and never hit 97%.    Maybe the extra off day did it, maybe I'm right.

But, again, I don't think any of us uses our pitchers to 100% capacity.   I know I don't. 

We absolutely know two things don't happen when the playoffs start.  A player's fatigue does not jump from a lower number to 100% and a pitcher will continue to fatigue in the same manner as they did during the regular season (otherwise you could start your ace 5 times in a row and not see a problem).  It is not a large leap to believe a position player will also fatigue in the same manner as they did prior to the post-season.

Therefore, there must be a fatigue pattern in the post-season and seeing as it is impossible to predict which players will be in the post-season prior to the start of the season, all players must be treated the same at the beginning of the season.  To fit in your model Mike, that would require every pitcher to be "loaded" with playoff innings prior to the start of the season such that they could have the necessary stamina to pitch in the post season.  And I highly doubt they get "loaded" with these innings just prior to the start of the post-season, because then we would see a dramatic change in their fatigue overnight.

With that being said, a specific playoff "reset" to a players fatigue cycles does not fit logically with everything else.

New schedule created, max pitches/PA "for season" resets.  Doesn't mean the current fatigue level resets.    The playoffs are a "new" season.

Posted by mchalesarmy on 7/20/2012 4:21:00 PM (view original):
I have a guy in the playoffs now, who is recovering at the same rate as he was all year. He did not experience a drop off in recovery what so ever.

I will start tracking this on my other team (45 games in)

If I am wrong, I want to know about it, and will share the results gladly right or wrong.

Doesn't mean a thing.   Like most of us, you've left 100% IP on the table.  My guess is virtually no one maximizes innings pitched.

If tec wanted to prove his theory, he'd take his ace in Coop, pitch him every time he hit 100% in ST and the regular season and report back to us.   Bet he doesn't do that.

Then why is Spring Training different than the playoffs?  Why would they include regular season innings in the pre-season?  If they reset for the playoffs, why wouldn't they reset at the start of the season?

If that was the case then you would see recovery cycles change.  Let's say you used 100% of a guy's pitches during the regular season (ie he's stuck at 0 (0)).  Playoffs start and he's allocated 26 games of fatigue (for a pitcher, say it's 26/5 or roughly 5 extra starts at X-number of pitches).  It would stand to reason that you would see that guy recover rapidly back up to 100%, seeing as he has all of the sudden gone from 100% fatigued to 0% fatigued with a whole playoff season ahead.  

I just don't see those patterns ever happening in my 30 odd seasons of playing this game.  Guys continue the same recovery patterns they had before the playoffs started.

It makes a lot more sense to me, based on the years I have spent observing how this HBD game has operated and listening to what WifS has said about the code, that they would code in a natural recovery cycle for each player as opposed to creating some "upper limit" to the number of pitches or AB's that a player would see.

Mike, your model requires there be a coded recovery cycle, a calculated upper limit and an additional reset at the playoffs.

Tec's model is just the recovery cycle.  The total usefulness of a player is simply determined by how many cycles can be fit into one season.  It's a natural limit with no need for a calculated number.

It's Occam's razor time: the simplest answer is usually correct.

This is a really odd argument because effectively Mike and tec believe the same thing, but neither can convince the other that they're right.  Though I think Mike's wackier theories about "playoff resets" are dead wrong.

Mike: There is, you're right, a theoretical maximum number of innings a P can pitch throughout the year at 100%.  This is determined widely by user input and the player's STA/DUR combo: number of pitches thrown in each appearance, if he is thrown at 100% as soon as he hits it each time, etc.  We'll never know what that perfect number is probably because no one is perfect at minmaxing that. 

That said, a P CAN throw "infinite" innings.  If, hypothetically, the season was 250 games long he would continue to fatigue and recover at the same rate, forever, based off his STA/DUR.  There is no tiered inning cap at which he starts recovering more slowly or something.  I think that's fairly obvious.  Even guys who make 40 starts have predictable recovery rates through the duration of the year.  (Of course, as tec mentioned, not all 100%'s are created equal, but the rate of recovery between games remains standard).

Of course there is some number of innings the guy can throw in ST + RS but nobody cares about the number of ST innings, and as long as he is fully rested to start the RS, he has done no damage to the maximum number of innings he can throw during the RS.

So, if you want to make some P throw every pitch for your first 6 SP games, assuming the following 17-ish cycles are enough to get him back to a perfect 100%, he's not forfeitting any innings during the RS.

Posted by soursurfer on 7/20/2012 4:50:00 PM (view original):
This is a really odd argument because effectively Mike and tec believe the same thing, but neither can convince the other that they're right.  Though I think Mike's wackier theories about "playoff resets" are dead wrong.

Mike: There is, you're right, a theoretical maximum number of innings a P can pitch throughout the year at 100%.  This is determined widely by user input and the player's STA/DUR combo: number of pitches thrown in each appearance, if he is thrown at 100% as soon as he hits it each time, etc.  We'll never know what that perfect number is probably because no one is perfect at minmaxing that. 

That said, a P CAN throw "infinite" innings.  If, hypothetically, the season was 250 games long he would continue to fatigue and recover at the same rate, forever, based off his STA/DUR.  There is no tiered inning cap at which he starts recovering more slowly or something.  I think that's fairly obvious.  Even guys who make 40 starts have predictable recovery rates through the duration of the year.  (Of course, as tec mentioned, not all 100%'s are created equal, but the rate of recovery between games remains standard).

Of course there is some number of innings the guy can throw in ST + RS but nobody cares about the number of ST innings, and as long as he is fully rested to start the RS, he has done no damage to the maximum number of innings he can throw during the RS.

So, if you want to make some P throw every pitch for your first 6 SP games, assuming the following 17-ish cycles are enough to get him back to a perfect 100%, he's not forfeitting any innings during the RS.

Very nicely put.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 4:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 3:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 3:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 3:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 2:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bigal888 on 7/20/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
MikeT: How do playoffs come into play then?  Along your logic that there is some upper limit to the amount of pitches thrown...if a theoretical pitcher uses those all up on game 162 of the season, shouldn't he be unavailable for the playoffs?

This is actually the smartest question that has been proposed.

I think fatigue resets.   32 teams participate in ST and the regular season.  12 participate in the post-season.  I don't think a seperate program or reset, especially since a new schedule is created, is out of the question.    Now, as much as I'd like to say I know this for a fact, I do not.   I've never had a position player get more fatigued during the playoffs but I generally have them, and my pitchers, at 100%.   I've had position players bounce between 99 and 100 at the end of the regular season who played the post-season at 100%.  And I've had guys enter the playoffs at 98% and never hit 97%.    Maybe the extra off day did it, maybe I'm right.

But, again, I don't think any of us uses our pitchers to 100% capacity.   I know I don't. 

Did somebody hack your account?  Because this is by far the dumbest thing you've posted today.  I'd like to give you more credit than that.

Fatigue definitely carries over into the playoffs, there is no reset.  If you've ever had to start your ace in game 162 to earn the WC2, you'd notice that he's not at 100% to start the first round.  And if you pushed your position players hard down the stretch because you were trying to earn that WC2 spot, you're not going to see them magically go from 93% in game 162 to 100% for playoff game 1.

Fatigue is less of an issue during the playoffs because of all the off-days, so there is more recovery, but there definitely is a carry-over from the regular season, and it seems to follow the exact same model that is used for spring training and the regular season.

Had you been capable of reading the entire paragraph, I know that's a lot of words, you'd notice that AT NO POINT did I say "Reset to 100%".    

Please have someone read the whole thing to you.

Well, if it doesn't reset to 100%, then what would it reset to?  And why?  And does that make any sense?

New schedule created, max pitches/PA "for season" resets.  Doesn't mean the current fatigue level resets.    The playoffs are a "new" season.

Do you really not understand this?

Why would that make sense?  To anybody?

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 4:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mchalesarmy on 7/20/2012 4:21:00 PM (view original):
I have a guy in the playoffs now, who is recovering at the same rate as he was all year. He did not experience a drop off in recovery what so ever.

I will start tracking this on my other team (45 games in)

If I am wrong, I want to know about it, and will share the results gladly right or wrong.

Doesn't mean a thing.   Like most of us, you've left 100% IP on the table.  My guess is virtually no one maximizes innings pitched.

If tec wanted to prove his theory, he'd take his ace in Coop, pitch him every time he hit 100% in ST and the regular season and report back to us.   Bet he doesn't do that.

Seeing that I'm not apt to experiment with a team that is defending back-to-back division titles, I'll pass.  But seeing that you're struggling to hit .500 and are looking at another lost season, perhaps you'll do what you suggest and report back to the group.

Why would it make sense that giving your ace SP 75 spring training innings would not affect his regular season capabilities?  To anybody?

Is anyone willing to throw their in-his-prime(so DUR/STM are the same) ace, on a full pitch count, every time he hits 100% in ST?   Prove me wrong.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 4:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 4:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mchalesarmy on 7/20/2012 4:21:00 PM (view original):
I have a guy in the playoffs now, who is recovering at the same rate as he was all year. He did not experience a drop off in recovery what so ever.

I will start tracking this on my other team (45 games in)

If I am wrong, I want to know about it, and will share the results gladly right or wrong.

Doesn't mean a thing.   Like most of us, you've left 100% IP on the table.  My guess is virtually no one maximizes innings pitched.

If tec wanted to prove his theory, he'd take his ace in Coop, pitch him every time he hit 100% in ST and the regular season and report back to us.   Bet he doesn't do that.

Seeing that I'm not apt to experiment with a team that is defending back-to-back division titles, I'll pass.  But seeing that you're struggling to hit .500 and are looking at another lost season, perhaps you'll do what you suggest and report back to the group.

Because you're not sure you're right?

Do it in MG after we roll.   Prove me wrong.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
Why would it make sense that giving your ace SP 75 spring training innings would not affect his regular season capabilities?  To anybody?

Is anyone willing to throw their in-his-prime(so DUR/STM are the same) ace, on a full pitch count, every time he hits 100% in ST?   Prove me wrong.

No.  But that's strictly to mitigate injury risk.  If injuries weren't in the game and ST didn't effect development on other players, I would absolutely do this.

Posted by bigal888 on 7/20/2012 4:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by soursurfer on 7/20/2012 4:50:00 PM (view original):
This is a really odd argument because effectively Mike and tec believe the same thing, but neither can convince the other that they're right.  Though I think Mike's wackier theories about "playoff resets" are dead wrong.

Mike: There is, you're right, a theoretical maximum number of innings a P can pitch throughout the year at 100%.  This is determined widely by user input and the player's STA/DUR combo: number of pitches thrown in each appearance, if he is thrown at 100% as soon as he hits it each time, etc.  We'll never know what that perfect number is probably because no one is perfect at minmaxing that. 

That said, a P CAN throw "infinite" innings.  If, hypothetically, the season was 250 games long he would continue to fatigue and recover at the same rate, forever, based off his STA/DUR.  There is no tiered inning cap at which he starts recovering more slowly or something.  I think that's fairly obvious.  Even guys who make 40 starts have predictable recovery rates through the duration of the year.  (Of course, as tec mentioned, not all 100%'s are created equal, but the rate of recovery between games remains standard).

Of course there is some number of innings the guy can throw in ST + RS but nobody cares about the number of ST innings, and as long as he is fully rested to start the RS, he has done no damage to the maximum number of innings he can throw during the RS.

So, if you want to make some P throw every pitch for your first 6 SP games, assuming the following 17-ish cycles are enough to get him back to a perfect 100%, he's not forfeitting any innings during the RS.

Very nicely put.

Agreed.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 4:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 4:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 4:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mchalesarmy on 7/20/2012 4:21:00 PM (view original):
I have a guy in the playoffs now, who is recovering at the same rate as he was all year. He did not experience a drop off in recovery what so ever.

I will start tracking this on my other team (45 games in)

If I am wrong, I want to know about it, and will share the results gladly right or wrong.

Doesn't mean a thing.   Like most of us, you've left 100% IP on the table.  My guess is virtually no one maximizes innings pitched.

If tec wanted to prove his theory, he'd take his ace in Coop, pitch him every time he hit 100% in ST and the regular season and report back to us.   Bet he doesn't do that.

Seeing that I'm not apt to experiment with a team that is defending back-to-back division titles, I'll pass.  But seeing that you're struggling to hit .500 and are looking at another lost season, perhaps you'll do what you suggest and report back to the group.

Because you're not sure you're right?

Do it in MG after we roll.   Prove me wrong.

I did this by accident in my current GAP season.  I'll let you know what happens.

Basically my first kid was born the day ST started, so I never changed anything.  My 5 SP went through ST and racked up the innings.