7/1/2009 5:51 PM
If you are going to be in town or have a chance to make it to St. Louis, check it out.

2009 Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball

I'll try to make the slides available after the presentation as well.
7/1/2009 6:16 PM
...how's it going, paul?
7/1/2009 7:25 PM
Hey John. Things are going well. I've been very busy (this symposium being part of that), but I'm not sure I could handle anything less.

This presentation should be fun and interesting. I am actually giving two talks.

One is on the math behind the baseball sim, including a thorough breakdown of Plate Appearance event decision tree with our normalization and matchup weights. I am sure it would be of interest to you and others playing SimLeague Baseball as I don't know if we have fully divulged the process like I will there.

The other presentation is on how to best use simulation technology for all sports.

Hope all is well with you...
7/1/2009 7:47 PM
I might just have to make that.

BTW, TLR would bat his worst hitter second and win about 6 games fewer than Herzog, so no need to kill yourself over that one.
7/1/2009 8:34 PM
A stream of this would be awesome.
7/1/2009 9:20 PM
They had one last year. I'll check on it this year.
7/1/2009 10:08 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By tinmanpb on 7/01/2009 including a thorough breakdown of Plate Appearance event decision tree with our normalization and matchup weights
That would be uber cool if you put the presentation up.
7/1/2009 10:29 PM
...it would be nice to have even a quasi-official all of a piece version...my memory of the the explanation tz gave years ago is fuzzier and fuzzier...
7/1/2009 10:55 PM
Figures, I move away from the St. Louis area just in time to miss this and the All-Star game... I pull away for AZ July 8th... I would love to be there, would settle for any form of access – whether streaming or the post-presentation slides.

7/28/2009 12:30 PM
7/28/2009 12:39 PM
...thanks, paul! great stuff!
7/28/2009 1:08 PM
From the presentation, best RRF (minimum 80 games):

1BHal Chase1919New York Giants12.7
2BBilly Goodman1952Boston Red Sox7.2
SSDave Bancroft1922New York Giants7.1
3BBuddy Bell1981Texas Rangers4.1
OFDarinErstad2002LA Angels3.7
OFMike Cameron2003Seattle Mariners3.6
OFTaylor Douthit1928St. Louis Cardinals3.6
PGreg Maddux2002Atlanta Braves3.8
7/28/2009 1:11 PM
This is awesome stuff...thanks Paul!!
7/28/2009 1:42 PM
...i think that was a min of 80 games, not 20...
7/28/2009 2:00 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By tinmanpb on 7/28/2009
This page has been updated post-symposium.

2009 Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball


90-95% of this I had deduced. But to have it confirmed... Priceless.

And that other 5-10%.... even more so. Where you find that you're wrong somewhere and had been operating on incorrect assumptions.

The pricing thing was definitely part of that 5-10%.

Paul... You ever make it down to the Charlotte area, I'm buying you a beer or six.
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