Here is a ticket that I sent to Customer Support:

How did Charlie Hollocher hit a home run? He hit 0 home runs in 1920. Pedro Martinez was 100% and the HRRF is -1.

So a batter with 0 real life home runs (in the selected season) hit a home run off an unfatigued pitcher with an HR/9+ of 171 in a - HR ballpark. I have a real problem with this result. Please explain.

Thank you.

Here is the response from Customer Support:

A player with 0 home runs in a season is not very likely to hit a home run but there's still a small chance for them to do so. Over the course of the season a player's numbers will reflect what you would expect so for this player he won't have many home runs but it's possible he's going to hit one every now and then.

What do you think?


 

I understand why you're frustrated, but I see their point.  If a pitcher gave up no HR in real life, should he be programmed to never allow one in the SIM?

I think that if a batter's player-season has 0 HR and the pitcher's player-season allowed 0 HR then the result should never be a HR (if the pitcher is 100%).  In the above example, Pedro did allow a few HR in that season (so a HR would be unlikely but possible).

I've seen a Roger Bresnahan with 1 RL HR hit 2 in the same game...in the Astrodome...off Frank Corridon.  Like the ticket says, it's going to happen every now and then.

When Ozzie Smith hits the game winning home run, its really cool for his team and really sucks for the other team. Thats just part of baseball.

I have no problem with the result.  Almost certainly Hollocher had some at bats in 1920 (resulting in doubles, triples, long fly balls, etc) that could have been homers in different parks.  Further, 1920 was a season that - aside from Ruth - produced very few homers.  In a more neutral historical environment, he likely would have homered more often.  Not a lot more often, but a small number of homers would certainly be within the realm of probability.

Hollocher hit 1-3 homers in every other year of his career.  The fact that he hit none in a set of 369 PAs in 1920 shouldn't (to me) preclude any possibility of him hitting one in the SIM.

As a real-life analogy, Freddie Patek (who had never hit more than 6 homers in a season), hit 3 in one game in 1980.  That's a more extreme result in my opinion.

Or consider Ozzie Smith, who had never before in his career homered while hitting lefty, and then hit one of the most famous postseason homers as a lefty off Tom Niedenfuer in 1985.

Charlie Hollocher did hit a total of 14 HR in 7 ML seasons (1918-1924), but 0 HR in 1920.

Does WIS look at a player's career statistics when he has a 0 in the selected season?


Charlie Hollocher's major league career [Baseball-Reference.com]:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
1918	22	CHC	NL	131	586	509	72	161	23	6	2	38	26		47	30	.316	.379	.397	.775	134	202		4	26			*6
1919	23	CHC	NL	115	502	430	51	116	14	5	3	26	16		44	19	.270	.347	.347	.694	109	149		7	21			*6
1920	24	CHC	NL	80	369	301	53	96	17	2	0	22	20	14	41	15	.319	.406	.389	.795	128	117		3	24			6
1921	25	CHC	NL	140	629	558	71	161	28	8	3	37	5	16	43	13	.289	.342	.384	.725	91	214		2	26			*6
1922	26	CHC	NL	152	692	592	90	201	37	8	3	69	19	29	58	5	.340	.403	.444	.847	117	263		5	37			*6
1923	27	CHC	NL	66	299	260	46	89	14	2	1	28	9	10	26	5	.342	.410	.423	.833	120	110		4	9			6
1924	28	CHC	NL	76	313	286	28	70	12	4	2	21	4	11	18	7	.245	.292	.336	.627	67	96		1	8			6
7 Seasons				760	3390	2936	411	894	145	35	14	241	99	80	277	94	.304	.370	.392	.762	110	1151		26	151
162 Game Avg.				162	723	626	88	191	31	7	3	51	21		59	20	.304	.370	.392	.762	110	245		6	32

No, they only look at the season in question.  But my point is that even if he hit none in 1920, it's not at all unreasonable to expect him to hit 1 or more.

It can, will, and does happen. Martinez does give up homers and Hollacher didn't go his entire career without one (although I recognize he didn't have one during the specific year you're referencing).  I like it when these sort of extreme things happen.  It's "what if" after all. I recall the grin on my face one time after the 1987 iteration of Vince Coleman belted three homers for me in a game, at Petco no less.   

The response is perfectly reasonable.

My only assumption is that any Major League player is capable of hitting a HR, regardless of his RL stats. Perfect pitch, wind blowing out and any other variables you can think of.

sh*t happens

In Freddie Patek's 3-HR game in Fenway Park, he collected two off journeyman Dick Drago. Drago would actually have an adequate season, slightly above replacement value for a long reliever. But he was susceptible to the long ball, giving up 17 in 131 ?. His HR/9 rating is 1.15 and HR/9+ is 71. On this occasion, he also served up a HR to Rick Miller, representing half of Miller's total for the season. Perhaps Drago was unready, having been brought in during the second inning.
Patek's third HR of the game came off Jack Billingham, a one-time good pitcher suffering a calamitous final season, including 9 HRs in 31 ? innings. His HR/9 is 1.99 and His HR/9+ is 41. Unsurprisingly, these pitchers have no WIS performance histories.
It would not be unrealistic for one of these pitchers to give up a HR to another low-power guy like Charlie Hollocher, especially making allowance for the dead-ball era. It would not be unrealistic for a good pitcher mildly susceptible to HRs, fatigued and pitching in a small park, to give up a HR to Hollocher.
Under the circumstances described, though, you should read the response from administration as, "Please don't ask too many questions about our modeling."

I'm in a long-standing twist league (25 seasons so far), and back in season 6 Cecil Fielder hit an inside the park home run.

Flip a coin enough times, and eventually it will land on it's edge.

Coincidentally, that was Toyota's first response to customers with defective breaks.